A Rational Transition - ORIGINAL CONTENT

The Administration has set the nation on a rapid transition to an “all-electric everything” energy economy powered predominantly by intermittent renewable energy. The goal is to complete this transition by 2050. There is significant uncertainty regarding the wisdom and necessity of achieving this goal, the target date for achieving it is arbitrary and the approach currently being pursued to achieve it is irrational.

However, if we stipulate that the transition is necessary, there is a rational path to pursuing it, though it is extremely unlikely that the transition would be complete by 2050. Pursuing this rational path begins with the acknowledgement that a reliable electric grid powered predominantly by intermittent renewable generation would require a combination of short-, medium- and long-duration storage infrastructure capable of storing approximately 25% of annual generation.

The first step in the process would be to terminate all subsidies, incentives and preferences for deployment of renewable generation. Wind and solar are relatively mature technologies. Their costs have been reduced dramatically and their promoters contend that they are already generating the cheapest electricity. There are more critical uses for the funds which are currently dedicated to these subsidies and incentives.

The second step in the process would be to terminate all subsidies, incentives and preferences for deployment of short-duration storage. Lithium-ion short-duration storage systems are commercially available and are being installed worldwide. The funds currently dedicated to these subsidies would be redirected to research, development, demonstration and deployment of medium- and long-duration storage technology.

The next step in the process would be to eliminate the current storage deficit which resulted from the installation of intermittent renewable generation without the storage required to render this generation dispatchable. The required storage capacity is approximately 115,000 GWH.

The next step in the process would be a requirement that all new intermittent renewable generation connected to the grid include sufficient storage capacity to render the generation dispatchable.

The next step in the process would be to delay any forced closures of coal generation facilities until sufficient dispatchable renewable generating capacity is installed and operating within the region currently served by those plants.

The next step in the process would be to delay any forced closures of natural gas generation facilities until sufficient dispatchable renewable generating capacity had been installed to meet the anticipated load growth in the region as well as replacing the existing natural gas generating capacity.

The funds currently used to subsidize and incentivize wind and solar generation should be redirected to research, development, demonstration and deployment of Dispatchable Emission Free Resources (DEFRs) for connection to the grid and for use as standby power systems for uninterruptible loads.

The time required for this transition is difficult to estimate because medium- and long-duration storage systems and DEFRs do not currently exist commercially and the time required for their RDD&D is uncertain. The time required for installation of the required generation and storage infrastructure is also uncertain because of the numerous delays encountered in infrastructure development projects. The time required for conversion of numerous industrial processes to electric power is uncertain because the required technology does not exist or is in its infancy.

Finally, completion of the project might well be delayed by the ability of the economy to fund the required new generation, storage, transmission and distribution infrastructure, including “last mile” upgrades to residential and commercial service transformers, service lines, and power panels..