From: Johns's Newsletter - Substack

By: Johns

Date: March 6, 2026

A deep analysis of Michigan’s transition to 100% clean energy by 2040

When it comes to renewable energy, Michigan is the state to watch. By law, it must transition from 15% renewable electricity today to 50% by 2030, 60% by 2035, and be powered entirely by “clean” energy by 2040. The 2040 goal must include at least 60% renewable energy, with an additional 40% from any CO2-free source, such as nuclear power.

Such a rapid transition is unprecedented. The Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC) plan offers few details on how to accomplish it. We will analyze the plan to estimate costs, land use, and CO2 emissions for each milestone. Then, we will use nonlinear optimization to find the optimal plan to meet Michigan’s 2040 milestone, using any combination of gas, solar, wind, nuclear, and batteries.

The goal of this analysis is to understand the challenges of powering a state like Michigan with intermittent energy and to compare those challenges with nuclear power, using a range of estimates for nuclear power construction costs (CAPEX). We will uncover many interesting ironies along the way. (continue reading)

A deep analysis of Michigan’s transition to 100% clean energy by 2040