The “boiling frog” idiom is made up from science, myth, and metaphor. Nineteenth century experiments in German physiology suggested that frogs might not react to gradually heated water.

…the frog story became a compelling metaphor, especially in environmentalism and anti-authoritarianism, where incremental loss of rights or nature can slip by unnoticed. (https://nosweatshakespeare.com/quotes/famous/boil-the-frog/)

The electric generation transition occurring in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) states, including New York, has been progressing relatively slowly, but the electricity consumers (“frogs”) have noticed that electricity prices are increasing (“the water is getting warmer”) and have become uncomfortable.

New York is a special case. The pace of the electricity transition is set by the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). The law established a hard target of 70% renewable generation by 2030. However, it is now clear that meeting that target is extremely unlikely, if not impossible. The state is well behind the adoption rate required to achieve the target and numerous proposed projects have been withdrawn or cancelled, in part as the result of the termination of federal subsidies.

The Hochul Administration has recently acknowledged several inconvenient facts. Electric rates have already increased sufficiently that the “frogs” have noticed the increased “water temperature”. Achieving the 2030 target would require significant acceleration of the transition and significant additional increases in electric rates, which would attract additional attention from the “frogs”. Therefore, achieving the 2030 target is politically impractical. It might also be physically impossible.

Governor Hochul is running for re-election in November. Her political calculation is that reducing the rate of increase in the “water temperature” would allow the “frogs” to be distracted by other issues and ignore the continually rising “water temperature”. Several state agencies have questioned the ability of the state to meet the target set in the law and the wisdom of attempting to do so.

A state court has ruled that the interim target dates established in the CLCPA is the law and must be met. The Hochul Administration has appealed the ruling and is attempting to convince the State Legislature to amend the law to extend the compliance deadline. However, numerous state environmental groups are aggressively resisting any change in the current deadline.

The Hochul Administration has not decided that achieving the state’s transition targets is no longer a priority Rather, it has acknowledged that the transition has increased electric rates more rapidly than it expected and that the increases have caused significant hardship among electric ratepayers (voters) whose support is essential to Governor Hochul’s re-election. Citizens currently dealing with energy poverty are difficult to distract.

The Hochul Administration is still committed to “boiling the frog”, though it has determined that it must allow the water to warm more slowly while keeping the “frogs” distracted until it is too late. Meanwhile, the owners of co-ops in the City of New York are facing a 2030 deadline under Local Law 97 to electrify their residences, further exposing them to the already increased electric rates and creating additional hardship.

Far more detailed coverage of the situation in New York is available at: New York Energy Policies