From: Climate Etc.
By: Nicola Scafetta
Date: September 25, 2022
CMIP6 GCMs versus global surface temperatures: ECS discussion
Two publications examining the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) have recently been published in Climate Dynamics:
Scafetta, N. (2022a). CMIP6 GCM ensemble members versus global surface temperatures.
Lewis, N. (2022). Objectively combining climate sensitivity evidence.
These two papers are significant because they take different but complimentary approaches and achieve the same result – ECS <3°C. Scafetta (2022a) extends and confirm Scafetta (2022b) previously published in GRL.
Lewis study was discussed in a previous post, let us here briefly present the main findings of Scafetta (2022).
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (phase 6) (CMIP6) global circulation (GCM) models project equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) values ranging from 1.8 to 5.7°C. To reduce this range, the 38 GCM were divided into low (1.5
CMIP6 GCMs versus global surface temperatures: ECS discussion