Civil cases:  A preponderance of the evidence

Evidence: d: something (as testimony, a writing, or an object) submitted at a judicial or administrative proceeding for the purpose of proving a party's case

offered the weapon as evidence

also : the collection of proof submitted at a judicial or administrative proceeding

 

There is ample evidence that the earth has numerous climates and that these climates have changed numerous times over the historical period we have been able to document. These climates are changing now, as documented by the progressive increase in atmospheric and near-surface temperatures. One documented contributor to these increased temperatures is the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO_2, which is at least in part the result of the combustion of fossil fuels 

 

The United Nations and numerous national governments assert that this increase in atmospheric CO₂ represents a “crisis”, an “existential threat” and a global “emergency”.  They assert that climate change has increased the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events including droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, tornadoes and heat waves. The scientific studies analyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I provide no or low confidence that current climate change has affected any of these weather events with the exception of heat waves.

 

The UN Conferences of the Parties (COPs) have advocated for the establishment of  a fund to mitigate and adapt to the adverse effects of “climate change” and funds to compensate nations for the “loss and damage” resulting from climate change. However, this represents a very complex and contentious issue. Extreme weather events have occurred throughout earth’s recorded history. They are demonstrably not the result of recent climate change. Extreme weather events have always resulted in damage in the areas in which they have occurred.

 

The stated intent of the proposed UN funds is to address the incremental damage resulting from extreme weather events attributable to the influence of the documented recent changes in the earth’s climates caused by the increase in anthropogenic atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The UN and numerous national governments assert that the incremental damages are current and massive. However, there is little or no physical evidence to support those assertions. There is economic data to support increased current cost of extreme weather events, but most or all of that increased cost is the result of increased investment in areas prone to exposure to extreme weather events, the increased value of investments resulting from increased Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the increased cost of damage repair resulting from the increased costs of materials and labor and the extent of the damage.

 

The UN International Court of Justice recently ruled that nations have an obligation to tackle climate change. This advisory opinion will likely lead to lawsuits on behalf of nations believed to have been adversely affected by the incremental damage caused by extreme weather events as the result of the influence of recent climate change. It is likely that these lawsuits will be based on climate model-based attribution studies performed by organizations such as World Weather Attribution offered as expert witness testimony. However, the results of model-based studies are neither measured data nor observations; and, the models are neither verified nor validated. They are certainly not “proof” and their “expert” value is questionable.

 

Much of the expressed concern regarding extreme weather damage is based on model-based projections of future climate change effects on extreme weather. However, there is no such thing as future evidence, or future facts, or future proof.