From: Climate Change Dispatch

By: Roger Pielke, Jr.

Date: January 7, 2020

Three Rules About Climate ‘Event Attribution’ Studies

"In September 2018, as Hurricane Florence was heading towards landfall in North Carolina, a team of researchers announced that the storm would be 80 kilometers larger and drop 50% more rainfall due to “human-induced climate change.”

In a study published last week, the researchers shared that their initial numbers were wildly off base.

The new study explained: “The quantitative aspects of our forecasted attribution statements fall outside broad confidence intervals of our hindcasted statements and are quite different from the hindcasted best estimates.”

In plain English, that means: “We were really, really wrong.”" ...

Three Rules About Climate ‘Event Attribution’ Studies