From: Net Zero Watch
By: Andrew Montford
Date: January 26, 2024
Costing the Green Grid: Current and Future Technology
Executive summary
A recent Royal Society report claimed the electricity grid could be decarbonised without materially raising the cost per unit of electricity delivered (the ‘system cost’). The annual cost would be of the order of £30 billion. However, this conclusion relied on extraordinary input parameters:
These assumptions included:
compared to levels seen today. In order to deliver a decarbonised grid by 2050 at the overall cost stated in the report, these improvements would have to be delivered in the next 2–3 years.
The electricity system model presented in this paper reproduces the Royal Society’s results and then examines the effect of correcting the flaws.
This rate of spend would have to be sustained indefinitely.
Obviously, some reductions in costs should be expected by 2050, so the last scenario only determines the envelope of possible outcomes. However, it is clear that the Royal Society contains a significant error, having apparently used incorrect figures for their seasonal demand curve. The sheer scale of the optimism in its assumptions also means that it is misleading for the policy community.
Together, these flaws mean that the report should be withdrawn. (continue reading)
Costing the Green Grid: Current and Future Technology