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Climate and Climate Change

Climate and Climate Change

Climate Change

Two days before Halloween, 2011, New England was struck by a freak winter storm. Heavy snow descended onto trees covered with leaves.  Overloaded branches fell on power lines.  Blue flashes of light in the sky indicated exploding transformers.  Electricity was out for days in some areas and for weeks in others. Damage to property and disruption of lives was widespread.

That disastrous restriction on human energy supplies was produced by Nature.  However, current and future energy curtailments are being forced on the populace by Federal policies in the name of dangerous “climate change/global warming”.  Yet, despite the contradictions between what people are being told and what people have seen and can see about the weather and about the climate, they continue to be effectively steered away from the knowledge of such contradictions to focus on the claimed disaster effects of  “climate change/global warming” (AGW, “Anthropogenic Global Warming”). 

People are seldom told HOW MUCH is the increase of temperatures or that there has been no increase in globally averaged temperature for over 18 years.  They are seldom told how miniscule is that increase compared to swings in daily temperatures. They are seldom told about the dangerous effects of government policies on their supply of “base load” energy — the uninterrupted energy that citizens depend on 24/7 — or about the consequences of forced curtailment of industry-wide energy production with its hindrance of production of their and their family’s food, shelter, and clothing. People are, in essence, kept mostly ignorant about the OTHER SIDE of the AGW debate.

Major scientific organizations — once devoted to the consistent pursuit of understanding the natural world — have compromised their integrity and diverted membership dues in support of some administrators’ AGW agenda.   Schools throughout the United States continue to engage in relentless AGW indoctrination of  students, from kindergarten through university.  Governments worldwide have been appropriating vast sums for “scientific” research, attempting to convince the populace that the use of fossil fuels must be severely curtailed to “save the planet.”  Prominent businesses — in league with various politicians who pour ever more citizen earnings into schemes such as ethanol in gasoline, solar panels, and wind turbines — continue to tilt against imaginary threats of AGW.  And even religious leaders and organizations have joined in to proclaim such threats.   As a consequence, AGW propaganda is proving to be an extraordinary vehicle for the exponential expansion of government power over the lives of its citizens. 

Reasoning is hindered by minds frequently in a state of alarm.  The object of this website is an attempt to promote a reasoned approach; to let people know of issues pertaining to the other side of the AGW issue and the ways in which it conflicts with the widespread side of AGW alarm (AGWA, for short).  In that way it is hoped that all members of society can make informed decisions.

The Fork in the Road - *EXTRA* - ORIGINAL CONTENT

The United States electorate reached “The Fork in the Road” last Tuesday. They chose the fork to the right, away from the Green New Deal, Net Zero by 2050, “all-electric everything”, electric vehicle promotion, renewable generation and massive federal subsidies; and, toward a rational economic transition to advanced energy technologies.

The new Administration can be expected to restore scheduled leasing of federal land and offshore tracts for oil and gas exploration and to end the “slow walking” of exploration, development and production permitting. It can also be expected to support LNG exportation.

Federal government support for offshore wind development will likely be dramatically reduced, since offshore wind generated electricity is several times more expensive than current wholesale electric rates in the markets it would serve and would therefore increase electricity prices.

The end of “all-electric everything” will reduce the rate of growth of electricity consumption and demand and the generation and transmission infrastructure growth required to serve load growth.

Reduction or elimination of subsidies and mandates for renewable generation and storage would require those technologies to compete fairly with alternative generation technologies. Since intermittent renewable generation requires backup from conventional generation or storage, it is parasitic to the electric grid and is redundant capacity which has increased generation and transmission investment and cost.

Unfortunately, the renewable generation which has already been installed has increased the average wholesale cost of electricity, increasing operating costs throughout the US economy and producing inflation which is, to a large extent, ”baked into” the economy. The Administration’s efforts to reduce energy costs will be limited by the existence of this redundant capacity.

The new Administration is expected to renounce the “all of government” effort to reduce CO2 emissions, withdraw the EPA Powerplant Rule and the EPA vehicle fuel economy standards which constituted an effective electric vehicle mandate and withdraw the onerous SEC emissions reporting requirements.

The new Administration is expected to exit the Paris Accords again, discontinue contributions to the UN Green Climate Fund and actively resist the UN effort to establish a “loss and damage fund”.

The Administration can be expected to work to halt and reverse our growing dependence on China, particularly with respect to rare earth minerals. The expansion of solar and wind generation has increased our dependence on China for raw materials, processed materials and finished goods. This has not been a serious issue to date, because we are not dependent on solar and wind to meet our electricity requirements. However, as renewable generation plus storage would have grown and replaced conventional generation, we would have become dependent on it and would have been at risk when it became necessary to replace the wind, solar and battery infrastructure. China has demonstrated a willingness to restrict export of rare earth minerals critical to the operations of US industry and the US military. We ignore dependence on unfriendly nations at our peril.

 

Tags: Climate Change Debate, Climate Policy

The Bright Green Line - Highlighted Article

  • 11/7/24 at 06:00 AM

 

From: environMENTAL - Substack

By: Environmental

Date: October 13, 2024


The Bright Green Line


“Of course, the world is full of problems. But on the other hand it's important to get the sense... are we generally moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?” - Bjorn Lomborg

At the 1979 Cannes Film Festival, an American film with rather uncanny timing (pun intended) previewed. In The China Syndrome, a television reporter and her camera man happen to be inside nuclear power plant during a turbine trip event and the emergency shutdown process known as a SCRAM.

What unfolds is a story of sticking gauges, panicked plant operations, safety coverups, intrigue, and ultimately State-sponsored assassination to keep a lid on the whole affair, all in order to hide from the public the fact that a power plant outside Los Angeles came dangerously close to a core reactor meltdown.

The film made its debut in American theaters on March 16, 1979. Twelve days later, at around 4:00 a.m., an incident began at a nuclear power plant built on an island in the Susquehanna River near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. When the dust had cleared at the Three Mile Island (TMI) Nuclear Generation Station, an uncontrolled partial thermal meltdown destroyed reactor unit 2.

At the time of the TMI accident, “environmentalism,” was a growing political force in the U.S., fueled by Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring (1962), Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb (1968), and the discovery in the late 1970s of Hooker Chemical Company’s contamination of the Love Canal neighborhood in Niagara Falls, NY. (Love Canal would ultimately lead to the U.S. Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act, CERCLA, aka “Superfund”).

After TMI, new nuclear power generation in the U.S. was over, killed by a public fear and panic which no fact, data, reason, or logic would penetrate for nearly half a century. Falling oil and natural gas prices after two 1970’s “energy crises” changed the economics of nuclear energy, to be sure. But, after TMI “environmentalists” (and even fossil fuel interests) exploited the public’s fear of nuclear energy, and it could not be overcome. The Chernobyl disaster seven years later in 1986 was similarly exploited. When the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident occurred 25 years later in 2011, the loudest and most angry voices were “environmentalists”. (continue reading)

 

The Bright Green Line

 

Tags: Highlighted Article

Population & Climate - ORIGINAL CONTENT

Population and population control have been the subjects of discussion for a variety of reasons for centuries. They have become a persistent issue in climate change discussions because of the narrative that recent climate change is the result of human activity and therefore increasing population is likely to result in increasing climate change. This is a particular concern regarding the developing nations as they increase their economic activity, standards of living and emissions.

The concerns regarding population are frequently based on the concept of the “carrying capacity” of the earth; that is, “the maximum population size an environment can sustain indefinitely”. However, estimates of the carrying capacity of the earth range from 500,000,000 to 1 trillion, though most estimates are in the range of 8 billion, roughly the current population. Clearly, there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the concept of carrying capacity.

There are numerous approaches to controlling the growth of population, including contraception, abstinence, abortion, sterilization and euthanasia. There are also multiple methods of reducing population, including war, famine and plagues. There have also been efforts to reduce the population of specific groups, including eugenics and the holocaust. Those who advocate for population reduction rarely discuss the methods they would choose to employ since they are typically abhorrent. However, there was a recent suggestion that the earth needs another pandemic to reduce population. Continued “gain of function” research offers the potential development of infectious agents more dangerous than COVID 19 which could produce such a pandemic.

The earth is able to sustain its current population as the result of several factors, including improved farming methods, the use of synthetic fertilizers and global greening resulting for increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, numerous national governments are taking or proposing actions which would remove agricultural land from production, limit the use of synthetic fertilizers, reduce the numbers of ruminant animals and otherwise limit farm production. These actions are being aggressively resisted by the farmers who would be deprived of their land, animals and livelihoods. While these actions are not currently extensive enough to result in global famine, they would certainly reduce the availability and increase the cost of food. A recent effort in Sri Lanka to convert to organic farming resulted in significantly reduced food production and localized famine.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization is actively promoting the adoption of alternatives to meat and dairy products from ruminant animals, including textured vegetable protein meat analogues, laboratory grown “meat”, nut and legume “milks” and the substitution of factory grown insects as a source of protein.

There is also growing resistance to the taking of productive farmland for the installation of massive arrays of solar collectors and wind turbines. Cattle appear to be largely unaffected by grazing in close proximity to wind turbines. Sheep and goats are also able to graze in proximity to solar collector arrays which are installed far enough above the soil to permit the animals to graze unhindered and adequately spaced to permit grass to continue growing vigorously beneath them.

 

Tags: Population Control

The Factual Context For Climate And Energy Policy - Highlighted Article

  • 10/31/24 at 06:00 AM

 

From: Hoover Institution - Tennenbaum Program for Fact-Based Policy

By: Steven E. Koonin

Date: September 26, 2024


The Factual Context For Climate And Energy Policy


Virtually all climate policy discussions assume that climate science compels us to make large and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. But any realistic policy must balance the hazards, risks, and benefits of a changing climate against the world’s growing demand for reliable, affordable, and clean energy. To strike that balance, climate policymakers will consider society’s values and priorities, its tolerance for risk, equities among generations and geographies, and the efficacy, costs, and collateral impacts of any policy. This paper reviews some of the scientific, techno-economic, and societal facts and circumstances that should inform those policy decisions and draws some straightforward conclusions from them.

 

CLIMATE IMPACTS


Projections of the impacts of future climate changes rely on assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions fed into large computer models of the ocean and atmosphere. Although those models can give a hazy picture of what lies before us at the global scale, their deficiencies on smaller scales are legion. For example, two senior climate researchers firmly within the scientific mainstream have said this:

For many key applications that require regional climate model output or for assessing large-scale changes from small-scale processes, we believe that the current generation of models is not fit for purpose.

That’s particularly important because adaptation measures depend upon regional model projections. One of the same senior researchers noted the following:

It is difficult, and in many places impossible, to scientifically advise societal efforts to adapt in the face of unavoidable warming. Our knowledge gaps are frightful because they make it impossible to assess the extent to which a given degree of warming poses existential threats. (continue reading)

 

The Factual Context For Climate And Energy Policy

 

Tags: Highlighted Article

Decision 2024 - ORIGINAL CONTENT

The Democrat and Republican Parties have held their National Conventions and approved their party’s platform for the 2024 presidential election.

The Democrat platform was developed prior to President Biden’s decision to end his campaign for a second term, so the platform is essentially the Biden platform, though it was adopted at the convention with the approval of Vice President Harris. The platform essentially continues and expands the Biden-Harris Administration priorities with regard to energy and climate change on both the national and international levels. Vice President Harris has not proposed any changes in direction regarding energy or climate change.

The Republican platform was developed with the knowledge that former President Trump would be the party’s nominee and it is clearly a Trump platform focused on the issues President Trump focused on during his term. The platform focuses on restoring US energy independence and pursuing US energy dominance. The platform also specifically mentions ending the EV. mandate.

 

Democrat Platform

Republican Platform

Climate crisis

Unleash American energy

Existential threat

“Drill, Baby, Drill”

Aggressive climate agenda

Become energy independent again

Electric grid incentive investment

Become energy dominant

Speed environmental review

Cancel EV mandate

Speed clean energy permitting

Cut costly regulations

Scale up clean energy on public lands

Lift production restrictions

Advanced Research Projects Agency

Reduce China dependence

New national lab for climate research

 

Lower energy costs

Trump – Expressed/Implied

Cheaper, cleaner energy

End Green New Deal

Clean energy jobs

End Net Zero goals

Invest in transportation infrastructure

End the “all-electric everything”

Electrify vehicle fleets

End renewable subsidies

Expand public transit

End LNG terminal halt

Electrify ports and waterways

Halt IRA spending

Zero emissions freight goal

Unleash energy production

Eliminate oil and gas subsidies

Unleash nuclear energy

Pursue environmental justice

Speed leasing and permitting

Justice 40 Initiative

Lower energy prices

Greenhouse gas reduction fund

Refocus climate science research

Million solar rooftops (low income)

Exit Paris Accords

Cancel Arctic leases

Exit UN Green Climate Fund

Global climate leadership

Resist UN “loss and damage

 

The two parties have laid out very different future paths. The Democrat path is focused on climate change and environmental justice. The Republican path is focused on energy independence and reducing restrictive regulations.

“When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”, Yogi Berra, American Philosopher

 

Choose wisely.

 

Tags: Climate Change Debate, Climate Policy, Green Energy Transition

The Fatal Flaw in Artificial Intelligence: Climate Change??? - Highlighted Article

  • 10/24/24 at 06:00 AM


From: Linkedin

By: Leigh Haugen

Date: October 2, 2024

 


The Fatal Flaw in Artificial Intelligence: Climate Change???


Leigh Haugen/ChatGPT4o

The development of large language models (LLMs) has transformed our world in many ways, making artificial intelligence (AI) a powerful tool capable of generating and interpreting massive amounts of information. These models, however, are fundamentally shaped by the data that feeds them—data taken from the internet, which is itself a collection of human input. While AI has the potential to aid in a variety of fields, there is a glaring flaw inherent to its very design: its reliance on human data. If this data is corrupted, biased, or fundamentally flawed, then the AI simply echoes and amplifies those same distortions.

One of the clearest examples of this issue is the topic of climate change. Whether you use a search engine or consult AI for information on climate change, the overwhelming majority of the data you will find supports the concept of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change (CACC). This is no coincidence—it is a reflection of the sheer volume of information that has been generated by those who have accepted this hypothesis, compounded by the biases of institutions and corporations that build the algorithms responsible for curating and ranking this information.

AI and the Dangers of Entrenched Misinformation

Artificial intelligence, by its very nature, is designed to draw conclusions from existing data. However, when that data is overwhelmingly one-sided or biased, AI becomes a tool for amplifying misinformation rather than a mechanism for critical analysis. In the case of climate change, AI is unlikely to offer nuanced perspectives or promote healthy skepticism. Instead, it mirrors the consensus-driven model that has been artificially constructed by political, financial, and globalist interests.

The danger here extends far beyond the academic realm. As LLMs and AI increasingly become integrated into decision-making processes—whether in government, business, or education—this flaw in their design becomes a genuine threat to freedom. The ability to challenge prevailing wisdom and to question powerful institutions is fundamental to a free society. However, if AI consistently promotes only one perspective, it serves to stifle dissent, limit critical thought, and bolster the authority of those in power. (continue reading)

 

The Fatal Flaw in Artificial Intelligence: Climate Change???

 

Tags: Highlighted Article

The Big Lie - ORIGINAL CONTENT

The solar and wind industries and their government and NGO supporters continually assert that a renewable plus storage grid would be more economical and more resilient than the current grid. Both assertions are demonstrably false. These assertions are not merely misinformation. Rather, they are intentional disinformation.

Solar and wind generation facilities are approximately the same capital cost per unit of rated capacity as fossil fueled generation facilities. However, the renewable generators have a capacity factor approximately one third the capacity factor of the fossil generation facilities. Therefore, the renewable generation installed capacity must be significantly greater to produce the same annualized electricity output. Instantaneous renewable generator output in excess of contemporaneous demand must be stored for use when renewable generator output is less than contemporaneous demand. The installed cost of electricity storage is currently 7-10 times the cost of generation capacity.

During periods of peak grid demand, the entire rated capacity of the renewable generation facilities would be required to meet demand, even though the renewable generators might not be operating due to weather conditions. During such periods, storage would be required to supply any output deficiency, for whatever period required. Storage would also be required to compensate for seasonal variations in renewable generator output, which could persist for several weeks.

Also, the useful lives of solar and wind generators are approximately one quarter to one half of the useful lives of the fossil generators they would displace, requiring replacement in 20-30 years. The useful life of storage capacity varies significantly depending on the storage technology employed, but battery storage would require replacement in 10-15 years.

The resilience of renewable generation and storage facilities is also questionable. Entire solar generation arrays have been destroyed by hailstorms. Wind generators have been destroyed by lightning strikes and tornadoes. Near shore and offshore wind turbines have yet to demonstrate their ability to withstand hurricanes and Nor’easters along the US Atlantic coast. Battery storage systems have experienced spontaneous fires which have destroyed one or more batteries.

Solar collector arrays produce no output for two thirds of the day, and their output varies uncontrollably as the result of varying cloud cover, rain and snow. Wind turbines also produce little or no output for two thirds of the day, though less predictably, and their output varies with wind speed and can drop to zero very rapidly. Wind turbines also must be shut down when wind speeds exceed their rated speeds, as would be the case during many thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes and Nor’easters. Wind turbines can also be affected by snow and ice accumulations on their blades.

The resilience of the current grid is dependent upon the ability of the existing conventional generation capacity to ramp output to compensation for fluctuations in renewable generator output. However, conventional generation capacity is being retired faster than additional renewable generation capacity is being installed and far faster than additional electricity storage capacity is being installed. This issue is compounded by the rapid increase in grid demand resulting from data center and AI demand growth and the progressive electrification of the current fossil fuel applications including vehicle fuels, home heating and water heating and industrial process applications.

Tags: Electric Power Generation, Electric Power Reliability

The small modular reactor revolution is arriving soon - Highlighted Article

  • 10/17/24 at 06:00 AM

 

From: CFACT

By: Robert G. Eccles

Date: October 6, 2024


The small modular reactor revolution is arriving soon


It’s been a big year for nuclear energy in the U.S. The Department of Energy has allocated a large amount of capital to nuclear energy research and has committed $900 million to advance Gen III+ (more on them below) small modular reactors (SMRs). The Inflation Reduction Act’s inclusion of nuclear energy has opened opportunities for tax credits for investors in nuclear projects.  Southern Company’s Vogtle plant’s second new reactor started sending power to the grid in April.

Most recently, on September 20, Microsoft and Constellation announced that they will reopen a reactor at Constellation’s Three Mile Island nuclear energy center in Pennsylvania to power Microsoft data centers. Microsoft agreed to pay $16 billion to restart the Unit 1 reactor which has a capacity of 835 megawatts. It was shut down in 2019 under financial pressure from growing competition with cheap natural gas. (The Unit 2 reactor was destroyed in 1979 accident and is undergoing decommissioning;  however, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) noted there were no deaths or accidents, or discernible health effects from some small radioactive releases.) Microsoft has agreed to buy up to 100% of the electricity produced by Unit 1. This is part of the tech giant’s efforts to secure enough reliable, low-carbon electricity to supply its energy-thirsty data centers powering the boom in artificial intelligence.

An Overview of Nuclear Energy

For many years, nuclear energy existed in the shadows of failed projects and safety concerns. While solar and wind flourished and fossil fuels remained a standby, the nuclear power industry has made huge strides in increasing safety, commercial feasibility, and attractiveness of nuclear as a carbon-free, reliable, baseload power source. It’s no surprise that Microsoft is now making headlines as it secures nuclear power to fuel its growing AI demand.

The 2000+ page Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) on the mitigation of climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes that nuclear energy capacity must nearly double by 2050 in order to keep the global temperature rise below 1.5°C. Nuclear power provides carbon-free baseload power without the intermittency inherent in wind and solar power. This report was published in 2022 and since then we have witnessed the growth of AI and its insatiable energy needs. AI is putting at risk all the net-zero commitments made by the big tech companies. This makes nuclear energy even more important. (continue reading)

 

The small modular reactor revolution is arriving soon

 

Tags: Highlighted Article

Home Sweet Decarbed Home - ORIGINAL CONTENT

The US Department of Energy (US DOE) has published Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy by 2050: A National Blueprint for the Buildings Sector, which contains a link to the full study. The blueprint’s objectives include increasing energy efficiency, reducing on-site emissions and increasing demand flexibility. The following are some thoughts about a new construction decarbonized home.

The average US single family home contains approximately 2300 square feet of living space. The most efficient configuration for such a house is a two-story structure with approximately equal area on each floor. The structure would likely feature foamed-in-place insulation and limited window area. New homes built to match the DOE blueprint would be all-electric to eliminate on-site emissions. and the HVAC equipment and major appliances would be internet connected to maximize opportunities for demand management.

The home would provide approximately 500 square feet of South-facing roof with the roof pitch adjusted to maximize collection of solar energy from approximately 380 square feet of solar collectors or solar roof shingles. The solar system would generate approximately 7.5 kW at peak, or approximately 25-50 kWh per day, depending on location weather and season of the year. Approximately 40 kWh could be stored in on-site batteries. An average single family detached home uses approximately 10,000 – 16,000 kWh per year, depending on location and appliances and equipment, or approximately 25 – 45 kWh per day. Note that all-electric homes in cold climates would experience maximum energy consumption in winter, when the output of the solar collectors was significantly reduced as the result of lower sun angle and shorter days.

The average home would have a 2-car garage, which would be equipped with chargers for 2 electric vehicles. The electric vehicles would add approximately 10 – 15 kwh each to the home’s daily energy consumption. However, the EVs would typically have to be charged from the on-site batteries or the grid, since they would likely be away during the day and require charging at night, when solar collector output is zero.

The availability of electric power from the on-site solar and battery systems would reduce the demand on the electric utility grid. However, the similarity between average daily solar collection and average daily usage suggests that grid backup would be essential to assure power reliability during periods of low solar energy generation, such as cloudy, rainy or snowy days. Therefore, the grid would require substantial storage capacity, since it would likely experience low solar availability during the same times as its customers.

The installed cost of solar collectors is approximately $2.50 per watt. Therefore, the installed cost of the 7.5 kW system described above would be approximately $19,000. The on-site storage batteries would add approximately $42,000. One suggested approach to funding the solar installation is utility ownership of the solar system and inclusion of the system costs in the utility ratebase. System ownership and maintenance costs would be added to the utility’s monthly service charge.

The availability of solar energy from on-site generation would reduce the average load on the “grid edge” facilities, including distribution wiring and transformers. However, the increased demand.imposed by EVs and electric heat pumps would likely increase grid demand during periods of low solar availability.

 

Tags: Energy Efficiency

Decarbonizing Buildings 3 - ORIGINAL CONTENT

The US Department of Energy (US DOE) has published Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy by 2050: A National Blueprint for the Buildings Sector, which contains a link to the full study.

The first strategic objective in the Blueprint is: Increase building energy efficiency - Reduce onsite energy use intensity in buildings 35% by 2035 and 50% by 2050 vs. 2005.This objective poses two distinct challenges: identifying the ideal characteristics of carbon-free buildings, as the basis for establishing building codes which assure that newly constructed buildings will be and will remain carbon-free; and, identifying the changes which can reasonably be made to existing buildings to achieve the required reductions in on-site energy use intensity.

The logical first focus of these efforts is on the building envelope. For new buildings, all components of the building envelope are candidates for optimization, including slabs, foundations, framing, sheathing, glazing, insulation, interior surface materials, weatherstripping and roofing. Building orientation is also a significant consideration with regard to solar and wind exposure, with particular emphasis on the ability to collect and store solar energy at the site.

The DOE Blueprint assumes that all new buildings would be all-electric. Buildings would be wired for electric appliances and equipment, including heat pump HVAC systems, heat pump water heaters, electric ranges and ovens, electric laundry dryers and EV chargers. Buildings would also be prewired for the installation of solar panels and storage batteries.

The larger challenge is the upgrading of the existing building stock. Ceiling insulation and crawl space insulation improvements are relatively straightforward and inexpensive, as are caulking and weatherstripping. Adding insulation to uninsulated exterior walls is also straightforward and relatively inexpensive. Improving the insulation values of already insulated exterior walls is problematic unless the exterior wall surfaces of the building are also being replaced. Replacing existing windows is expensive and might not be economically justified if the existing windows are double glazed.

Upgrading existing all-electric buildings with forced air HVAC systems should not require any modification to existing appliance and equipment connections. However, buildings with electric baseboard heating systems or steam or hot water radiator systems would require major modifications. Buildings with natural gas or propane appliances and equipment would require installation of electric appliance and equipment connections and might require upgrading of utility electric service and building power panels.

Almost all existing buildings would require installation of connections for EV charging systems. Buildings suitable for the installation of solar collectors would also require installation of the wiring and controls necessary to interface the solar collector system to the building power panels, on-site storage batteries and the utility service.

Achieving on-site emissions reductions would require replacing all natural gas, propane and oil appliances and equipment with electric appliances and equipment. This would likely be accomplished by banning the manufacture and sale of natural gas, propane and oil appliances and equipment and allowing the appliance and equipment replacement cycles to complete the process.

Tripling demand flexibility would likely require that all major appliances and equipment be internet connected to permit remote control of their operation; and, that all buildings be equipped with smart meters to facilitate creation of virtual powerplants. DOE envisions that this would also permit power to be drawn from EV batteries and solar storage batteries if required to support the grid.

As the decarbonization plan comes together, it is likely to include a combination of “carrots and sticks” intended to assure that the plan goals are achieved.

 

Tags: Regulation, Net Zero Emissions, Energy Efficiency

Capacity Factors - ORIGINAL CONTENT

Capacity factor:  The ratio of the electrical energy produced by a generating unit for the period of time considered to the electrical energy that could have been produced at continuous full power operation during the same period. (EIA)

The US EIA Electric Power Monthly uses the above definition for both fossil and non-fossil generators. However, the definition is more appropriate for intermittent renewable generators (wind and solar) than for other types of generation, since the output of these renewable generators have first priority on the grid. Their full output is used, except in circumstances when that output exceeds the contemporaneous demand on the grid. Therefore, their capacity factors are an accurate measure of what they are capable of generating “for the period of time considered”.

The output of wind and solar generators varies uncontrolled over timeframes of seconds, minutes, hours, days, weeks, month, seasons and years. In the shorter timeframes, output can vary from 100% of rating plate capacity to zero. Over the longer timeframes, wind generator output can vary from approximately 24 – 47% on a monthly basis and from approximately 32 – 35% on an annual basis. Over the longer timeframes, solar output can vary from approximately 12 – 33% on a monthly basis and from approximately 23 - 26% on an annual basis. These numbers represent national averages for existing generating facilities.

The non-renewable generators supplying the grid are operated to generate the difference between the contemporaneous grid demand and the output of the intermittent renewable generators. Therefore, their “capacity factors” are not weather limited, as is the case with the intermittent renewable generators, but rather are “utilization factors” controlled by the output of the intermittent renewable generators and the contemporaneous grid demand. Therefore, the “capacity factors” of the non-renewable generators decrease as the quantity of renewable generation supplied to the grid increases, with the exception of the nuclear generators which are typically operated at full capacity because the variable cost of the generation they provide is low.

Nuclear generators are typically capable of operating at rated capacity approximately 95% of the year, natural gas combined-cycle generators approximately 90% of the year and coal generators approximately 85% of the year. The portion of the year when they are unavailable is typically scheduled for the shoulder months of the year, when grid demand is well below peak demand.

The lower “capacity factors” (utilization factors) reported by EIA are directly driven by contemporaneous grid demand and indirectly driven by weather impacts on intermittent renewable generation output.

Ultimately, the Administration goal is to replace dispatchable fossil generation with renewable generation plus storage. Assuming that storage can be recharged at approximately the same rate that it can be discharged, the maximum capacity factor for storage would be approximately 50%, in situations in which storage was discharged and recharged daily. However, in situations in which longer duration storage was charged during periods of high monthly or seasonal renewable availability for use during periods of lower monthly or seasonal renewable generation availability, storage capacity factor would be significantly lower. That has economic consequences, since storage is currently significantly more expensive than renewable generation.

 

Tags: Electric Power Dispatchable, Electric Power Generation, Electric Power Reliability, Energy Efficiency

Classes of DEFRs - ORIGINAL CONTENT

It is broadly, though not universally, acknowledged that a Net Zero electric grid powered predominantly by intermittent renewable generation sources such as wind and solar would require support from dispatchable generation sources to “fill in the blanks” when wind and solar were unavailable or inadequate to meet the demands of the grid. These sources are generally referred to as Dispatchable Emission-Free Resources (DEFRs).

There are fundamentally two classes of DEFRs, those that depend on the output of the intermittent renewable resources for their operation and those which are able to function independent of the renewable generation.

The primary dependent DEFRs are storage batteries, pumped hydro dam complexes and Green Hydrogen systems. The primary independent DEFRs include hydroelectric dam systems, geothermal steam systems, biomass generation systems, wave energy systems, ocean thermal energy systems and small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs).

Battery storage systems and pumped hydro storage systems are currently in use on a limited basis. Green Hydrogen is being pursued as a possible long-duration storage solution to cope with weekly, monthly, seasonal and annual renewable availability variations. However, current battery storage is extremely expensive and most suitable for short-term storage (2-4 hours). Pumped hydro systems are also expensive, but have faced strong resistance from citizen groups in the US. Green Hydrogen is the most complex potential storage solution, requiring sea water desalination, water hydrolysis, hydrogen compression, transmission and storage and either combustion turbine or fuel cell power generation resources.

The dependent DEFRs require the availability of surplus renewable electricity to be stored for later use. Their charging cycles are parasitic to the renewable grid. Battery systems have the highest round-trip efficiency (~95%) and thus require the least surplus energy per unit of delivery capacity. Green Hydrogen has the lowest round-trip efficiency of the dependent DEFRs (~50%) and thus requires nearly twice as much surplus energy per unit of delivery capacity.

Hydroelectric dam systems, geothermal generation and biomass generation are currently in use on the US grid, although they are currently used primarily to supply baseload generation rather than as DEFRs. There is strong environmentalist resistance to new hydroelectric dams and strong pressure to remove existing dam systems. The availability of natural geothermal steam sources is limited, though there is significant potential for expansion into dry hot rock geothermal with the application of hydraulic fracturing. Biomass generation is of questionable environmental benefit and its expansion is likely to be limited. There are numerous RD&D programs underway to develop small modular nuclear reactors which would be inherently safe and have the ability to load follow, which would make them ideally suited as DEFRs, assuming that the environmentalist resistance to new nuclear generation can be overcome and system costs can be reduced.

The independent DEFRs do not require the availability of surplus renewable electricity. In fact, the independent DEFRs would not require the existence of intermittent renewable generation to support a reliable grid. They effectively render the renewable generators redundant; and, redundancy is expensive.

 

Tags: Net Zero Emissions
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