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Factual?

By:
Edward A. Reid Jr.
Posted On:
Aug 11, 2020 at 3:00 AM
Category
Climate Change
  • factual: of or relating to facts; restricted to or based on fact (Merriam-Webster)
  • nonfactual: not relating to, concerned with or based on facts (Merriam-Webster)
  • counterfactual: contrary to fact (Merriam-Webster)
  • deceptive: tending or having power to cause someone to accept as true or valid what is false or invalid

Several aspects of what constitutes “common knowledge” regarding climate change are factual. Climate is changing, as it always has. Sea levels are rising, as they have in the past and have been for at least 170 years. The global average tropospheric temperature is increasing. The atmospheric CO2 concentration is increasing; and, the additional CO2 is contributing to global greening.

Several aspects of what constitutes “common knowledge” and the “consensus” regarding climate change are nonfactual; they are estimates. The ~1°C increase in global average near-surface temperature anomalies is an estimate, since global instrument coverage is inadequate in certain regions and near-surface data are “adjusted” and “infilled”, rendering them estimates. Assertions that CO2 is wholly or primarily responsible for near-surface temperature increases are based on estimates.

Global average sea surface temperature anomalies are nonfactual estimates, since global sea surface temperature instrument coverage is inadequate and data are “adjusted” and “infilled”. Ocean heat content calculations are also estimates because of sparse instrument coverage and limitations of measurement at depth.

Computer model projections of future climate conditions are nonfactual, since none of the models have been verified and none have demonstrated predictive skill. The projections are also nonfactual because their temperature anomaly inputs are estimates and their sensitivity inputs and feedback inputs constitute ranges of estimated values. There is currently no assurance that the actual sensitivities and feedbacks lie within the ranges used as inputs.

Computer model attributions of changes in weather events to climate change are also nonfactual estimates, since the computer models used for the attribution calculations are unverified.

Assertions regarding increased frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, tornadoes, droughts and floods are counterfactual, as documented here. Assertions that this would be the case in the future are based on unverified climate models.

Regrettably, some of what is reported regarding climate change is intentionally deceptive: and, much of it is presented in government reports. The most common deception is the reporting of the “warmest year ever” based on data which is of insufficient accuracy to permit such determinations. NOAA and NASA GISS are both guilty of this deception.

Arguably, the most alarming collection of climate science deceptions is contained in the Fourth National Climate Assessment, which is prepared by a group of scientists to inform federal government policy regarding climate. This deception has been documented by Tony Heller in a series of YouTube videos, of which this is the most damning. The contributors to the Assessment “cherry-picked” the start dates in their graphical presentations to present the data beginning with the lowest point in the data for each issue they addressed, rather than showing all of the data from the beginning of the data record. This is clearly intentional and purposeful deception.

Rosanne D’Arrigo once explained to an astounded National Academy of Sciences panel that you had to pick cherries if you wanted to make cherry pie. This approach is not desirable if you want to make science.