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Highlighted Article: Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050

Posted On:
Feb 20, 2020 at 6:00 AM
Category
Climate Change

 

From: Climate Etc.

By: Judith Curry

Date: February 13, 2020

 

Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050

 

"A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability – volcanoes, solar and internal variability – are expected to act in the direction of cooling during this period.

In the midst of all the angst about 1.5oC or 2.0oC warming or more, as defined relative to some mythical time when climate was alleged to be ‘stable’ and (relatively) uninfluenced by humans, we lose sight of the fact that we have a better baseline period – now. One advantage of using ‘now’ as a baseline for future climate change is that we have good observations to describe  the climate of  ‘now’.

While most of the focus of climate projections is on 2100, the period circa 2020-2050 is of particular importance for several reasons:" ...

 

Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050