Standards of Evidence

The Paris Accords call for the developed nations to provide $100 billion per year by 2020 to fund climate change “adaptation and mitigation” programs in the developing nations. The Accords also call for the developed nations to provide ~$400 billion per year to compensate developing nations for “loss and damage” resulting from climate change. The Accords call for this funding from the developed nations on the basis that they have caused / contributed to the climate change which has occurred over the past several decades and thus bear responsibility for compensating the “victims” of this climate change for its effects on their nations.

The development and disbursement of a funding stream of approximately one half trillion dollars per year, in the absence of documented needs for “adaptation and mitigation” and documented “loss and damage”, raises serious fiduciary responsibility issues.

• What criteria are used to determine that the situation to be considered for funding is the result of climate change, specifically anthropogenic climate change, and not the result of severe weather or other causes?
• What criteria determine that a situation requires “adaptation” or “mitigation”?
• Who determines the appropriate “adaptation and mitigation” approaches?
• Who evaluates the “loss and damage” and the extent to which it is the result of climate change, specifically anthropogenic climate change, rather than severe weather or other causes?
• Who assures that the funds provided to compensate for “loss and damage” are used in a way that eliminates / minimizes the likelihood of future “loss or damage”?
• Who controls the disbursement of funds and assures that the funds are used for the intended purpose?

There is no question that severe weather events must be adapted to and the risks of severe weather damage mitigated. There is also no question that severe weather events cause loss and damage. However, the funding intended to be provided under the Paris Accords through the Green Climate Fund are intended to deal specifically with adaptation and mitigation issues and loss and damage resulting from climate change, specifically anthropogenic climate change.

Climate change is the result of natural variation and other causes, likely including human activities which emit “greenhouse” gases to the atmosphere and which alter the albedo of the globe. It is not currently possible to determine the extent of human contribution to climate change; and, it is clearly demonstrable that climate change was occurring prior to the mid-twentieth century when the influence of human activity on climate is thought to have begun to any significant degree.

Scientists have begun to develop attribution studies in an attempt to establish the extent of the impact of human activity on severe weather events and climate change. However, these attribution studies rely on unverified climate models and estimated climate sensitivities and feedbacks. Therefore, their outputs hardly constitute evidence of some percentage of anthropogenic influence on any particular severe weather event.

Should the funding called for under the Paris Accords ever be made available, it would be essential to assure that it did not disappear down the rathole in numerous kleptocracies rather than accomplish its stated purpose. The intended purpose of these fund transfers, the de-development of the developed nations, would occur regardless.

“The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.”, Lady Margaret Thatcher