Climate Priorities 2019 focused on issues related to measurement and modeling of the earth’s climate: temperature measurement, climate sensitivity, forcings and feedbacks, and, model verification. These issues are a priority for 2019, but they have been a priority for decades without resolution. However, they are hardly the only unresolved or poorly understood issues in climate science.

The oceans cover approximately 70% of the surface of the planet. There are several natural ocean phenomena which have significant effects on weather and climate which are known but not well understood. On a global scale, the Global Ocean Conveyor Belt (GOCB) circulates water among the world’s oceans. While scientists are aware that the GOCB exists, there is less certainty about why; and, about how its existence influences climate globally. Perhaps the best-known component of the GOCB is the Gulf Stream, which is one of the streams which compose the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. There are numerous other regional currents which also have weather and climate effects in the various ocean basins.

Source: NASA/JPL

The GOCB interacts with several regional phenomena which affect both weather and climate, including:

• El Nino southern Oscillation (ENSO);
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); and,
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

These regional phenomena occur over very different time frames. The El Nino Southern Oscillation consists of two relatively short-lived phenomena (1-2 year duration). The warm phenomena are referred to as El Ninos, while the cool phenomena are referred to as La Nina. The timing of the ENSO phenomena are not highly predictable and their magnitudes vary considerably, as do their effects on climate.

Source: UAH

The graph of global lower atmosphere temperatures above illustrates the climate effects of ENSO events, among other things, highlighted by two Super El Ninos in 1997-1998 and 2016/2017.

The factors which trigger ENSO events and determine their intensity are not well understood, but the events have significant weather effects and arguably might have significant climate effects as well.

The PDO is a longer-term phenomenon, with an estimated period of 20-30 years for both its warm phase and its cool phase. The impacts of the phases and the phase change on weather and climate are not well understood, nor is their interaction with ENSO events in the Pacific Basin.

The AMO is an even longer term phenomenon, with an estimated period of 60-80 years for both its warm phase and its cool phase. The impacts of the phases and the phase change are even less well understood than for the PDO, because the period of the phases is so long that perhaps only a single phase change has been subjected to instrumental measurement.

Understanding the factors which cause these phenomena and the effects of these individual phenomena and their interactions are a major scientific challenge. Once these phenomena are well understood, they can be modeled and included in the global climate models, so that their effects can be included in the modeled scenarios. Until that is the case, their absence represents a significant limitation to the accuracy and thus the utility of the climate models.

There continue to be four fundamental climate science research priorities:

• accurate and comprehensive temperature measurements;
• accurate climate sensitivity determination;
• accurate feedback magnitude determination; and,
• a verified, accurate and comprehensive climate model.

The political process struggles to advance in the absence of these fundamentals, spending essential resources on political advocacy efforts rather than on addressing these scientific priorities.

The first research priority, accurate and comprehensive temperature measurements, applies to both near-surface land and sea surface temperature measurements. Accurate temperature measurement facilities for both applications exist, but they are not comprehensively deployed and are not used exclusively as a result.

The US Climate Research Network (CRN) provides accurate near-surface temperature measurements; and, its use of three instruments assures continuous measurement while permitting detection of instrument failure or drift. The measurement sites are located away from infrastructure which could cause Urban Heat Island effects on the measurements. Deployment of similar measuring stations globally would provide comprehensive near-surface temperature data which would not require “adjustment”.

The collection of drifting buoys and the Argo floats provide accurate temperature measurements, though an array of three measuring instruments would provide the same ability to detect instrument failure or drift available with the US CRN. The total number of floats and buoys deployed and their distribution globally is currently inadequate to produce a comprehensive picture of global sea surface temperature.

Establishing an accurate relationship between the land near-surface and the sea surface temperature measurements and the more comprehensive satellite temperature measurements might minimize the number of additional measuring stations required to provide the necessary data.

The second research priority would facilitate replacing the current estimated range of sensitivities used to drive the climate models with a single accurate and verifiable climate sensitivity. The IPCC currently uses a range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.5 – 4.5. However, recent research by several scientists suggests the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is more likely between 0.5 and 2.0. These lower climate sensitivities would result in significantly smaller increases in global temperatures as the result of a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, these lower climate sensitivities are still estimates over a relatively wide range, rather than a definitive number, leaving significant uncertainty regarding potential future temperature increases.

The third research priority would resolve the dispute between the consensed climate science community, which generally argues that feedback is net positive, and researchers analyzing satellite data, who argue that feedbacks are net negative. This is a very significant difference which affects projections of potential future temperature increases.

The fourth research priority would determine whether it is possible to accurately model the climate changes which have already occurred and been documented over the past 30-year climate period. This would require: initializing the model(s) with conditions 30 years previous; using accurate climate sensitivity and climate feedback measurements in the model runs; and, producing an accurate modeled replication of the climate changes in the intervening 30-year period.

The successful achievement of the first three research priorities listed above would make it possible to pursue the fourth priority. However, it is possible that the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns remaining in climate science might make accurate modeling unachievable. Also, even if accurate modeling of the most recent climate period is achieved, there is still no assurance that the successful model has any predictive ability over the longer term.

A pyramid is an inherently stable structure built upon a broad base which tapers toward a point at its top. A pyramid scheme is an inherently unstable structure built upon a point and expanding to a broad top.

Perhaps the most famous pyramids are those in Egypt, which are a testament to the stability and durability of the structural form. Perhaps the most famous pyramid scheme is the scheme created by Charles Ponzi and later emulated by Bernard Madoff, which are a testament to the instability of the inverted pyramid. The more common pyramid schemes are the numerous multi-level marketing schemes, which “grow like Topsy” and then rapidly topple like a “House of Cards”.

The catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) or catastrophic anthropogenic climate change (CACC) science is in many ways similar to a pyramid scheme. It is based on a small body of evidence which is used to support a growing collection of estimates used to concoct an even more rapidly growing collection of projections of future catastrophes. These projected future catastrophes are based on the outputs of unverified climate models built upon hindcast comparisons to “adjusted” temperature measurements and fed with uncertain climate sensitivities, forcings and feedbacks.

The structural pyramid converges to a point at its top upon completion. The pyramid scheme diverges from a point at its base to a broad but undefined top prior to its collapse. The weakness of the base of CAGW / CACC science is illustrated by the numerous failed short-term predictions based on that science. The predictions of an ice-free Arctic and of the end of snow are classic examples.

The consensed climate science community has shifted its efforts toward longer term projections which would likely not be falsifiable in their lifetimes. These longer term projections include more frequent and more intense tropical cyclones, tornadoes, droughts and floods, more extreme temperatures, melting glaciers and Arctic and Antarctic ice caps, coastal and island inundation, crop failures and even the end of human civilization.

These long-term extreme projections become the basis for demands to end human fossil fuel use, eliminate animal husbandry, institute global governance with massive redistribution of wealth and income and control and reduce global population. The actions would require investments of tens of trillions of dollars combined with massive personal and economic turmoil.

It is amazing to contemplate that these extreme projections and planned massive dislocations are built upon a very narrow knowledge base combined with an ever-expanding series of estimates of climate sensitivity, climate feedbacks, Representative Concentration Pathways, fed into an ensemble of unverified climate models, most of which have been effectively falsified by the actual climate observations over the most recent climate period.

It is not too late in the political process to begin efforts to expand the scientific knowledge base upon which the CAGW / CACC meme is based, while reducing the magnitude of the overhanging mass of estimates, unverified climate models and hypothetical “scary scenarios” and replacing them with information more reliably supported by the expanded scientific knowledge base.

• From: Climatism
• By: Jamie Spry
• December 19, 2018

DRACONIAN UN CLIMATE AGENDA EXPOSED : ‘Global Warming Fears Are A Tool For Political and Economic Change…It Has Nothing To Do With The Actual Climate’

“This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years since the Industrial Revolution.”– Christiana Figueres (UN Climate Chief Says Communism Is Best To Fight Global Warming)

“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.“
– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

DRACONIAN UN CLIMATE AGENDA EXPOSED : ‘Global Warming Fears Are A Tool For Political and Economic Change…It Has Nothing To Do With The Actual Climate’

The United States has still not terminated its participation in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as required by current US law, as the result of the UNFCCC granting state-level recognition to the Palestinian Authority. This action would also hasten the official US withdrawal from the Paris Accords.         

The US announced that it would make no further contributions to the UN Green Climate Fund (GCF). Most other nations are not meeting their commitments to the Fund. The GCF is struggling to justify its existing project funding commitments while seeking additional funding for projects currently proposed.           

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued its Special Report (SR15) on the challenges of limiting the increase in global temperature anomalies from exceeding 1.5°C. The US has not officially reacted to the new report, which was prepared in anticipation of Conference of the Parties (COP) 24 in Katowice, Poland. The IPCC continues to ignore research which does not support the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming narrative.            

The Administration has not formally begun an effort to vacate the 2009 EPA Endangerment Finding, though it is becoming increasingly obvious that the Endangerment Finding was based on incomplete and faulty data.       

US EPA has proposed the Affordable Clean Energy Plan as a replacement for the Clean Power Plan, which has been stayed by the US Supreme Court. The proposed plan would provide additional flexibility for the operators of existing coal-fueled electric generating facilities and for the construction of new coal facilities.       

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and US EPA have proposed the Safer Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE) Vehicle Rules to replace the much stricter CAFÉ standards put in place by the Obama Administration.      

US EPA has proposed terminating the use of “Secret Science” in developing and supporting proposed rulemaking. There has been significant pushback from scientists, mostly expressing concern with divulging personal information about study participants. However, there is no question that such personal data could be withheld, while still permitting the study design, conduct and analysis to be scrutinized.  

US EPA has substantially revised participation in its Science Advisory Board, eliminating members who also performed contract research and consulting services for the Agency, which was clearly a potential / actual conflict of interest. EPA has also increased the participation of industry scientists in the Board.            

The Administration has revised the estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), though the issue of the benefits of higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations has yet to be addressed as part of the revision process. The largest impact on the SCC was the application of more typical discount factors in the calculation of future costs.

Elements of the consensed climate science community have begun to acknowledge the limitations of the existing near-surface temperature anomaly data; and, they have recommended establishment of a “global land surface climate fiducial reference measurements network”, similar to the US Climate Reference Network This network would provide accurate global near-surface temperature measurements, eliminating the “need” for repeated data “adjustment” and “reanalysis”.

Elements of the consensed climate science community have acknowledged that the existing ensemble of climate models is “running hot”, significantly over-projecting temperature anomaly increases. This issue is apparently driven by high climate sensitivity estimates, uncertain forcing and feedback estimates and unrepresentative Representative Concentration Pathways.            

Recent research continues to suggest climate sensitivity at or below the low end of the sensitivity estimates used by the IPCC. Lower sensitivity, combined with the logarithmic nature of the effect of additional atmospheric CO2 concentrations, would lead to smaller future increases in global temperature anomalies.   

The temperature anomaly trend has continued to decline in the wake of the 2015/2016 super El Nino, further increasing the disparity between the temperature anomaly observations and the modeled projections.   

Examination of extreme weather trends reveals that major US landfalling hurricanes and US tornado activity have declined, global drought severity shows no significant trend, and the climate science community has little confidence that climate change is driving extreme weather. 

NASA has documented the occurrence of global greening, largely as the result of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This greening has impacts on the growth of all types of plants, including the common food crops, increasing crop yields and food security.         

Regardless of the US decision to withdraw from the Paris Accords, US CO2 emissions continue to decline, though not as rapidly as they would have had to decrease under the terms of the Accords.

The situations discussed above suggest continued progress on climate change issues in 2018. However, as indicated above, much remains to be done.

From: Quillette

By: Joanna Szurmak and Pierre Desrochers

The One-sided Worldview of Eco-Pessimists

This essay draws in part on the authors’ new book Population Bombed! Exploding the Link Between Overpopulation and Climate Change (Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2018).

The One-sided Worldview of Eco-Pessimists

An open memo to key organizations skeptical of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change.

To:    American Enterprise Institute

American Legislative Exchange Council

Cato Institute

Competitive Enterprise Institute

Heartland Institute

Heritage Foundation

Manhattan Institute for Policy Research

From: The Mark H. Berens Family Charitable Foundation (https://www.therightinsight.org/)

Subject: Federal Government Climate Study Funding

Federal funding of research to advance our understanding of the earth’s climate and the factors which affect it is both reasonable and necessary.

Regrettably, much of recent federal funding related to climate has been directed toward studies which use flawed climate data, unverified climate models and unrealistic Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to produce “scary scenarios” of potential future climate catastrophes. Arguably, such studies contribute nothing to advancing our understanding of the climate. Rather, they are intended solely or primarily to attempt to convince the citizenry to accept the climate science ”consensus” and the actions urged by the consensed climate science community, climate change activists in federal departments and agencies, environmental activist groups, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change; and, to provide material to the media to assist in that effort.

We find it difficult to believe that the US Congress authorized and appropriated these funds with the knowledge or intent that they would be used for purposes other than the advancement of the science. Furthermore, we find it difficult to believe that the federal departments and agencies contracting for these studies do not know that these studies are based on flawed data, unverified models, uncertain fundamental inputs and unrealistic RCPs.

Under federal appropriation and budgetary rules, the government is not authorized to purchase valueless services. While those contracting for these services directly might believe that they have value, that value is clearly more as propaganda than as science.

These concerns would appear to justify a specific and detailed Freedom of Information Act demand that the Federal government produce documents underlying its climate policies, climate change research priorities and climate change expenditures.

The resulting information might well become the focus of a class action lawsuit on behalf of all US taxpayers. Such a suit might have significant educational value for US taxpayers, as it would expose government efforts to incite citizen acquiescence and action based on uncertain and flawed science, as opposed to government efforts to expand understanding of the science.

Recent acknowledgements by members of the consensed climate science community regarding the shortcomings of the current near-surface temperature anomaly products and that the current ensemble of climate models are “running hot” reinforce the uncertainties and flaws in the science underlying these “scary scenarios”.

We urge your organizations to form a consortium to prepare and file such a Freedom of Information Act demand to provide a potential basis for a class action lawsuit on behalf of US taxpayers.

From: Watts Up With That?

By Andy May

An Assessment of the 4th National Climate Assessment

The U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) Volume II is out and generating a lot of discussion. Volume II, Impacts Risks and Adaptation in the United States to climate change can be downloaded here (Reidmiller, et al. 2018). Volume I, published last year, on the physical science behind the assessment is here (Wuebbles, et al. 2017).

The mainstream media (MSM) is breathlessly reporting about it using the following template or something similar:

“[Volume II] of the Fourth National Climate Assessment shows how [America/city/state/poor/people of color/old people/young people, etc.] are already feeling the effects of climate change from [wildfires/droughts/floods/disease/hurricanes/etc.].

An Assessment of the 4th National Climate Assessment

The Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) recognizes the existence of an implied warranty of fitness for particular purpose in commercial sales contracts, which it defines as follows:

            § 2-315. Implied Warranty: Fitness for Particular Purpose.

Where the seller at the time of contracting has reason to know any particular purpose for which the goods are required and that the buyer is relying on the seller's skill or judgment to select or furnish suitable goods, there is unless excluded or modified under the next section an implied warranty that the goods shall be fit for such purpose.

The UCC does not apply to Federal government contracting, since the ultimate buyer is the citizens of the government, represented by the citizens’ elected representatives. Those elected representatives authorize and appropriate funding for all the functions of government. Those funds are then committed by the direct buyer (executive branch departments and agencies) to fund contracts with other government agencies and with outside organizations and individuals.

The conceptual framework of “fitness for particular purpose” can be used to analyze government contracting, either with outside entities or with other government agencies. The seller (outside contractor or government researcher) has reason to know the particular purpose for which the good (research) is being contracted, most frequently from the Request for Proposals (RFP) prepared by the buyer. The buyer (government department or agency) relies on the seller to furnish suitable goods (research results), frequently under the oversight of a buyer’s contracting officer.

Applying this concept to climate change research conducted with government funding, it is critical that both parties understand the particular purpose for which the research is required. Ideally, this particular purpose should be to advance the understanding of the science behind climate change, the various factors which contribute to climate change, the impact of each of those factors on climate change and the extent to which each of those factors could be and should be controlled, since this is the “particular purpose” for which the funds were authorized and appropriated. Advancing this particular purpose optimally requires a broad focus on all of the relevant factors and careful data collection and analysis.

Regrettably, this does not appear to be the particular purpose of current government funded climate change research. The sole focus on CO2 by both the US government agencies and the IPCC and the exclusion of research on other factors including natural variability, solar impacts, etc. suggests that the particular purpose is not the ideal purpose described above. The government is not authorized to purchase valueless services under its appropriation and budgetary rules, which calls into question the ongoing funding of “scary scenario” studies based on unverified models reinforces this assessment. The continued collection of flawed data which is then “adjusted” also reinforces the assessment.

What then is the particular purpose for which the buyers are contracting with sellers?

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”

H. L. Mencken

Could it be that the particular purpose of much of current government funded climate change research is to alarm the populace and cause it to seek to have the government lead it to the “safety” of a carbon and meat free global economy with socialist global governance? The willingness of government and the IPCC to rely on flawed data and unverified models while focusing on creating “scary scenarios” using the flawed RCP 8.5 and encouraging the media to communicate the “scary scenarios” loudly and broadly would suggest that this might well be the case.

The substantial funds already expended on studies which contribute nothing to the advancement of the science could form the legal basis for a class action lawsuit on behalf of US taxpayers for budgetary waste. Such a lawsuit, by an organization such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute, could result in discovery of some very interesting and potentially damning information regarding the motivations of the involved federal departments and agencies.

Fortunately, the growing gap between the “adjusted” observations and the CMIP5 models has become so obvious that elements of the consensed climate science community have acknowledged the shortcomings of the data and models and made suggestions for resolving the issues. However, it remains to be seen whether this acknowledgement leads back to a broad focus on the underlying science, a more open approach to considering research which questions the consensus narrative and a more rigorous data collection and analysis effort. Ultimately, that determination will be based on the particular purpose of the buyer (government department or agency).

From: Climate Etc.

By: Judith Curry

Special Report on Sea Level Rise

“This report reflects 18 months of work on this topic. Why have I devoted so much time to the sea level rise issue? First, I regard sea level rise to be the most consequential potential impact of predicted global warming. Second, there is a great deal of public confusion about the issue, including decision makers. Third, a number of CFAN’s clients have queried me about a range of specific concerns that they have regarding sea level rise (and I have been doing consulting on this topic).”

Special Report on Sea Level Rise

The consensed climate science community places great importance on the process of peer review and professes great confidence in its capability to validate its research methods and results and to enhance acceptance of those research methods and results. However, the willingness of some journals to allow authors to select the peers to review their research has caused some to refer to the process as “pal review”, suggesting that the process does not always involve serious, critical review of research methods and results.

A recent research report published in the journal Nature regarding the magnitude of ocean heat uptake suffered from a lack of serious, critical peer review. Shortly after publication, a major mathematical error was discovered which caused the calculated magnitude of the ocean heat uptake reported to be greater than it should have been; and, caused the uncertainty of the reported results to be understated.

The mathematical errors were first identified by British mathematician Nicholas Lewis, a catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) skeptic. Lewis contacted the authors and made them aware of the error, which they acknowledged and have since corrected. However, while the original publication of the study results received significant media coverage because of the apparent significance of its results, the corrections have received far less media attention.

Dr. Tim Ball, also a CAGW skeptic, has suggested that this might not have been a completely innocent mistake. Ball suggests that this study might have been rushed to publication so that it was available prior to the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties 24 (COP 24) in Katowice, Poland in December 2018 because of its potential to influence the conclusions of the Conference. Similar suggestions were made regarding Karl et al 2015 “pause-buster” study of sea surface temperatures (ERSST.v4). This study, while not acknowledged as faulty and corrected, has been updated by NCEI (ERSST.v5).

Perhaps the most notorious of the peer reviewed studies which have been discovered to be in error, but not corrected, is the Mann “hockey stick”. The inappropriate use of tree ring analysis and the use of inappropriate statistical analysis techniques in development of the hockey stick were first identified by Dr. Steve McIntyre. Mann was completely unwilling to cooperate with McIntyre’s efforts; and, he continues to avoid providing access to the details of his research.

It appears obvious that the inclusion of skeptical scientists, statisticians and mathematicians in the peer review process would be a major step in the direction of accuracy and reproducibility in climate change research. A recent article suggests that the results of half of peer reviewed climate science studies cannot be reproduced, in some cases even by the original researchers.

The current state of peer review is totally unacceptable. In the case of climate science, not only can’t the research results be reproduced, but the conditions under which the project was conducted cannot be replicated.

It is inconceivable that major public policy decisions affecting millions of people and the expenditure of trillions of dollars should be made based on largely irreproducible research results.

By: Clear Energy Alliance

We believe in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (the founder of global warming / climate change alarmism).

We believe in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (the aggregator and promoter of consensus climate science).

We believe CO2 is the climate “control knob” (which supersedes natural climate variation).

We believe CO2 is “carbon pollution” (even though it is largely responsible for the greening of the globe).

We believe that global average temperature anomaly increase must be limited to a maximum of 2°C, and preferably 1.5°C to avoid climate catastrophe (even though the globe and its occupants thrived in warmer temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period).

We believe in near-surface temperature anomaly products (even though the data are incomplete, inaccurate, “adjusted”, “infilled”, homogenized, re-analyzed and re-adjusted).

We believe in climate models (even though they are incomplete, unverified, divergent and unrepresentative of the temperature anomaly products).

We believe in high climate sensitivity (even though we do not know what the sensitivity is).

We believe in strong positive cloud feedback (even though satellite data support strong negative cloud feedback).

We believe the rate of sea level rise is increasing and will continue to accelerate (even though the data from long duration tide gauges do not support this belief).

We believe aggressive actions must be taken to reduce / eliminate CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels (even though the renewable alternatives to fossil fuels are uneconomical, intermittent and not dispatchable).

We believe that the creation of “scary scenarios” of potential future climate catastrophes is necessary to attract the attention of the public and convince them to accept the changes we deem necessary to avoid these catastrophes (even though the “scary scenarios” are impossible / extremely unlikely).

We believe the consumption of meat and milk must be reduced / eliminated to make the land dedicated to their production available for food crop production and to avoid the “greenhouse gas” emissions associated with their production (even though much of the land in question is not suited to the production of food products).

We believe that capitalism must be rejected and replaced (even though no other economic system has proved even equally successful or equitable).

We believe that wealth and income must be redistributed in the interests of fairness (though it is unclear how this redistribution would reduce / eliminate anthropogenic climate change).

We believe achieving the required changes will require some form of global governance (even though many countries would resist such governance and the history of substantially more limited experiments in multi-national governance is littered with failure).

We believe the global government must take actions to stabilize and then reduce global population (even though the identified approaches to doing so are broadly unacceptable and abhorrent).

These are our beliefs, as revealed by the UNFCCC and supported by the IPCC. We are called to evangelize in the interests of humanity. We ignore the infidels who reject our efforts to evangelize; and, we vilify the heretics who resist those efforts and encourage resistance in others. We reject the objections of the infidels and heretics regarding certain aspects of our beliefs, since all aspects of our beliefs support each other and the overarching belief structure.

By: Clear Energy Alliance

Mr. President

Many share your reasonable and clearly articulated skepticism of the climate change “consensus” and the consensed climate change community, including many active climate scientists. Regrettably, among the reasons for this skepticism are the actions of three organizations within the Executive Branch of the U.S. federal government: the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NASA GISS); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); and, the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

These organizations are involved in the collection and analysis of near-surface land temperature data and ocean surface temperature data. Each of these organizations selects from among the data collected globally, “adjusts” the chosen data, analyzes the “adjusted” data and produces reports detailing the temperature anomalies the “adjusted” data portray from a selected reference period. Clearly, the data are not “adjusted” because they are highly accurate, but rather because they are known / believed to be inaccurate for a variety of reasons.

The National Association of Scholars recently published a study regarding the irreproducibility of scientific results. The focus of the study was on the inability of scientists to reproduce the results of studies conducted by other scientists, using the same data and methods or similar samples and methods. Einstein is reputed to have defined insanity as:  “continuing to do the same things and expecting different results”. He might well have defined irreproducibility as continuing to do the same things and achieving different results.

Recent analyses suggest that NASA GISS, NOAA and NCEI have an internal irreproducibility problem – they appear to be unable or unwilling to reproduce their own results.

Unfortunately, there is a history of multiple adjustments to the temperature anomalies over time. The graph below displays two instances of “adjustments” to, or “re-analysis” of, the global temperature anomaly record made by NASA GISS. The climate over the period from 1880 to 1980 and its actual anomaly from the reference period did not change. However, the reported anomaly over the period did change. The anomaly was reduced by as much as ~0.2°C early in the period, thus increasing the apparent rate of increase of the anomaly over the period, as shown in the area highlighted in yellow in the graph. The climate over the period from 1980 to 2001 and its actual anomaly from the reference period also did not change. However, the reported anomaly over the period did change. The anomaly was increased by as much as 0.2°C late in the period, as shown in the area highlighted in green in the graph, again increasing the apparent rate of increase of the anomaly over the period. We cannot determine from the information in the graph the number of times the anomalies were “adjusted” or “re-analyzed”. We can only determine the cumulative effects of the “adjustments” or “re-analyses”, which appear to total ~0.4°C, or approximately 1/3 of the reported anomaly change over the entire 136-year period. We do not know which, if any, of the anomaly plots contained in this graph is accurate. We do know, however, that they cannot all be accurate.

NOAA has a similar issue with the sea surface temperature analyses. The graph below shows three versions of the NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature “Dataset” developed by NCEI. (The term “dataset” is shown in quotes because once data are “adjusted” they cease to be data and become merely estimates of what the data might have been had they been collected timely from properly selected, calibrated, sited, installed and maintained sensors.) The differences between the graphs are approximately 0.1°C at the end points, but the changes in the more recent ERSST.v4 and ERSST.v5 graphs more than double the reported rate of change of sea surface temperature. Again, we do not know which of the graphs is accurate, but we know that they cannot all be accurate. While the reported temperature anomalies are small, the specific heat of water is approximately 4 times the specific heat of air and the oceans represent approximately 70% of the surface of the earth. Therefore, the difference in the amount of energy represented by the temperature anomaly change is dramatically larger than the difference represented by the near-surface temperature anomalies.

The magnitude of the “adjustments” made to the U.S. near-surface temperature anomaly data by NOAA has varied significantly with time, as shown in the graph below. The earlier “adjustments” represent a reduction from the measured data to the reported estimates of approximately 1°C, or approximately the same magnitude as the reported global temperature anomaly change over the entire period of the global instrumental temperature record. These “adjustments” make the U. S. temperature anomaly appear larger and dramatically increase the reported rate of change of the temperature anomaly.

It is long past time for the U.S. federal government to form a Tiger Team of skeptical climate scientists and statisticians to critically evaluate the entire process of temperature data acquisition, data “adjustment”, data analysis and reporting of results at NASA GISS and NOAA NCEI.

The consensed climate science community has recently called for the construction of a global near-surface temperature measurement network similar to the US Climate Reference Network. The key feature of the US CRN is that the data do not need to be “adjusted”. The consensed climate science community has also recently acknowledged that the current ensemble of climate models is “running hot”, producing potential future scenarios with temperature anomalies two to three times the anomalies present in the “adjusted” near-surface observations. Both events represent potential positive signs that the consensed climate science community might be getting serious about collecting accurate data and producing plausible projections of potential future climate conditions.

The potential costs in capital and human deprivation represented by the approaches to CO2 emissions reductions proposed by the UNFCCC and the IPCC demand that the climate be measured and understood far better than is the case today before these approaches are aggressively pursued. You have understood and responded to these issues by withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Accords. You now have the opportunity to take the lead in advancing the science of climate change.