Climate Change

From: Climate Etc.

By: Judith Curry

Date: October 26, 2020

Science and Politics

"“I’m reaching out to scientists this week about the election. How do you feel about it? Which of the candidates has the best plan, for you, in science and technology?”

The above question was emailed to me today by a reporter.

My response:

I am not happy with either the Democratic or Republican plans for science in the U.S.  Both sides seem to want to use and misuse science as a club to further their political agendas.  The Republicans seem to prefer to ignore science, while the Democrats cherry pick science to further their political agendas.

Here is the long response,some text from something that I’m working on:

Dutch regulatory lawyer Lucas Bergkamp summarizes the challenge in this way. Science has become an instrument used by politicians and agencies to arm themselves with powerful arguments in complex value-laden debates. Scientists have let the politicians hijack the scientific enterprise. Both policy makers and scientists exploit scientific uncertainty to avoid debate on the relation between science and politics, facts and values. Armed with science, politicians are able to avoid accountability for decisions. Serious debate is avoided because politicized science has purged doubt and skepticism. Activist climate science makes use of a series of strategies and tactics to influence public opinion and politics. Bergkamp concludes that climate science itself has come under siege." ...

Science and Politics

Propaganda:  (Merriam-Webster)

2: the spreading of ideas, information, or rumor for the purpose of helping or injuring an institution, a cause, or a person

3: ideas, facts, or allegations spread deliberately to further one's cause or to damage an opposing cause

Halting and/or reversing climate change is a cause. Climate change is frequently described as a “crisis” or an “existential threat” by environmental activists, politicians and bureaucrats, though these descriptions are used infrequently by climate scientists. Environmental activists continue to be frustrated that citizens in numerous countries do not perceive climate change as a crisis, or even an important issue, and are not clamoring for heroic actions to halt or reverse it. Their position is that there is a compelling scientific consensus that recent climate change is totally or predominantly anthropogenic and that anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and other “greenhouse gases” must be rapidly reduced and ultimately eliminated to avoid a climate catastrophe.

            “What we’ve got here is failure to communicate”, Cool Hand Luke

The advocates of the cause in the global media have concluded that the lack of public concern and outcry is the result of a failure to communicate regarding the issue clearly, consistently and continuously. More than 400 members of the global communications media have become partners in an effort called Covering Climate Now.

“Covering Climate Now is a global journalism initiative committed to more and better coverage of the defining story of our time. Organized by journalists, for journalists, CCNow was co-founded in April 2019 by the Columbia Journalism Review, and The Nation, in association with The Guardian. Our partners include more than 400 news outlets with a combined audience approaching 2 billion people, and our innovative collaborations are driving stronger climate coverage across the media. CCNow works directly with newsrooms, sharing first-class content, providing story ideas and background resources, amplifying our partners’ coverage, convening climate journalism conferences, and publishing a weekly newsletter highlighting best practices.”

CCNow lists several characteristics of good climate coverage, including:

“Good climate coverage connects the dots between human-caused climate change and stronger heat waves, droughts, storms, and sea level rise and the damage caused to people and the economy.”

“Good climate coverage humanizes the story by focusing on how real people and communities are experiencing the climate crisis, and it recognizes that the poor and people of color suffer disproportionate impacts.”

“Good climate coverage is accurate and fair but need not be neutral about humanity’s survival -- it holds political, business, and other leaders accountable for delivering the rapid emissions reductions and other measures scientists say are imperative.”

Unfortunately for CCNow, climate science does not “connect the dots” listed; and, real people and communities are not experiencing a “climate crisis”. Clearly, “good climate coverage” accepts the “climate consensus” as revealed truth and therefore holds the “responsible parties” feet to the fire regarding achieving emissions reductions consistent with the consensus positions. CCNow apparently perceives no need to question the consensus even as new research and analysis calls the consensus into question.

CCNow is focused on spreading ideas and allegations for the purpose of helping the cause of climate change activism.

From: CFACT

By: Dr. Jay Lehr, Terigi Ciccone

Date: October 27, 2020 & November 2, 2020

Manufacturing Climate Deceptions - Part One
Manufacturing Climate Deceptions - Part Two

"It is astonishing how scientifically accurate data is used to create massive deceptions. Namely involving man’s ability to overpower Mother Nature and control the thermostat of planet Earth. While we are clearly not conspiracy theorists, man-caused global warming or climate change (take your pick) has been a mechanism used across the world to grow government, converge to a one-world government and defeat capitalism in favor of world socialism. The tool of choice is the use of well chosen facts, casting aside facts not considered useful in order to deceive. In science this is called cherry-picking. Lacking ethics, one chooses only the facts that support their beliefs while ignoring those that don’t." ...

Manufacturing Climate Deceptions - Part One
Manufacturing Climate Deceptions - Part Two

Stasis : a state of static balance or equilibrium : stagnation – Merriam-Webster

All aspects of life on earth are subject to continual change. The changes are the result of numerous factors including: changes in the sun; changes in earth’s position and orientation relative to the sun; changes resulting from anthropogenic actions, including gaseous and particulate emissions and land use changes; volcanic activity; and, other natural phenomena. Paleoclimatic history suggests that periods of stasis, if they have existed, have been brief and fleeting.

However, the consensed climate science community appear to believe that stasis is desirable and therefore, that global average temperature, global sea level, global ice cover, etc. should adhere to patterns determined to exist at some relatively recent point or period in human history. Some appear to believe that this point in history should be immediately prior to the start of the industrial revolution. Others appear to believe that this point should coincide with the beginning of the instrumental record, while others believe the period circa 1950 to be the reference point.

A relatively common position is: “We liked it the way it was in … and we want it to stay that way.” However, any particular year is but one year of a 30-year climate period and any particular climate period is merely one period in an epoch of approximately 11,000-year duration.

Residents of islands in the Pacific are concerned about rising sea levels, but ignore the reality that their islands are volcanic and have not always existed, no less at their current extent and elevation. Residents of coastal communities in numerous countries are also concerned about rising sea levels, but typically choose to ignore the effects of coastal subsidence.

Residents of cities and their environs are concerned about rising temperatures, but ignore the impact of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect on those temperatures. Residents of these cities frequently move to the suburbs, not realizing that they bring UHI with them as they expand the urban heat island.

Environmentalists are concerned about the retreat of glaciers, ignoring the fact that these glaciers are the residue of the most recent ice age. They are concerned about the effects of glacial retreat on global sea level, but ignore that global sea levels were much lower at the peak of the ice age in which the glaciers were formed.

Environmentalists are also concerned about the extent of sea ice, even though it has no impact on global sea levels. Sea ice coverage was far more extensive and persistent during the ice ages, even though global sea levels were far lower.

Climate science has not determined what set of static conditions would be ideal for the globe and all of its residents, but that has not deterred the desire for stasis at some set of conditions. There remains no common agreement on the specific conditions to be achieved.

There is also no recognition that stasis might be neither possible nor desirable, nor that the effort would likely require significant ongoing effort and cost.

From: CFACT

By: Dr. Jay Lehr, Carl Langner

Date: October 21, 2020

Climate ‘Catastrophe’ Myths, Realities and Why You Should Care

"Those of us who reject the idea that mankind controls Earth’s thermostat do so for many reasons. As yet there exists no physical evidence to link the steady growth of carbon dioxide beginning in the 1950s with the erratic atmospheric temperature record which goes back to the 1850s. Nor has there been any acceleration in the historical record of storm frequencies or intensities, droughts, floods, wild–fires, species extinctions, and all the rest of unsupported propaganda announced daily in the media. The oceans are rising, but at a constant leisurely 7 inches per century.

It is more logical to assume Earth’s temperatures are a result of natural causes, as has been the case for all time even before man or animals walked the Earth. We know we are rebounding from a Little Ice Age that ended around the time Washington was fighting near Valley Forge. This warming has caused the release of carbon dioxide from the oceans, which is responsible for the greening of the Earth in recent decades. For the record the total warming of the atmosphere since 1880 has been about one degree centigrade, in contrast with predictions of a 3-4 degree rise by the United Nations supported computer models." ...

Climate ‘Catastrophe’ Myths, Realities and Why You Should Care

The Biden/Harris position on climate change has been shifting (shifty?) as their political campaign has “progressed” toward election day. The Green New Deal is one of the key issues on which the campaign has shifted with regard to climate. The Biden campaign website states: “Biden believes the Green New Deal is a crucial framework for meeting the climate challenges we face.” Senator Harris is a co-sponsor of the Green New Deal in the Senate and has previously supported it on the campaign trail. However, Biden has now stated that he does not support the Green New Deal. Climate change is only one aspect of the Green New Deal, which deals with air travel, high speed rail, building energy efficiency and electric vehicles. Virtually all other aspects of the Green New Deal are reflected in both the 2020 Democrat Party Platform and the Biden Platform.

One of the key factors in the reduction of US CO2 emissions has been the shift from coal to natural gas for electric power generation. This shift was largely made possible by hydraulic fracturing, which has made natural gas far more available. The Biden/Harris position on fracking has changed from “ban fracking” to “ban fracking on public lands” to “not ban fracking”. Biden has also stated that there would be no more fossil fueled power plants built under his administration. Biden/Harris are committed to eliminating CO2 emissions from power generation by 2035, five years later than the Green New Deal schedule.

Biden has committed to incentivizing installation of 500,000,000 solar modules and 16,000 wind turbines. While these are large numbers, they are relatively trivial in comparison with the numbers needed to replace all existing fossil fueled power generation facilities with intermittent renewable generators and storage systems. Solar and wind currently supply approximately 12% of US electricity. However, this capacity is currently backed up by fossil fueled generation; and, in general, is dispatched first under environmental dispatch orders. Combined solar and wind generation capacity would therefore have to be increased by roughly an order of magnitude to supply approximately all of US electricity consumption, even with continuing fossil fuel backup. Eliminating the fossil fuel backup would require installation of significant additional generating capacity plus long term, high draw storage capacity sufficient to supply power for several days. This storage technology is not currently commercially available.

While a Biden/Harris administration would incentivize solar and wind installations, the majority of the investment required to install these systems would be required to be provided by private sources, such as investor owned electric utilities, other businesses  and homeowners. In the process, the utilities would be forced to abandon existing, functioning fossil fueled generating capacity, at a loss of approximately $4 trillion.

The switch from fossil fueled generation to renewable generation would also strand huge quantities of coal, oil and natural gas, causing a dead weight loss of $50+ trillion, which would be borne by both private owners and the government. These costs are not considered when the Biden asserts that: “The Green New Deal will pay for itself as we move forward.”

From: Real Climate Science

By: Tony Heller

Date: October 1, 2020

Alterations To The US Temperature Record

"For the past decade or so, I have been documenting how US temperature graphs released by NOAA and NASA are not representative of their own raw data. This work has been high profile on a number of occasions, but has been repeatedly censored by the press as “conspiracy theory.” This happened as recently as yesterday on DailyKos.

Reality is that the data alterations are no secret, and that NOAA and NASA acknowledge that they do it. In this post I will document the magnitude of the adjustments and how they can be visualized.

This graph of US temperatures was posted by NASA in 1999, showing a strong cooling trend from the 1930’s through the end of the century. The years 1934 and 1998 are circled." ...

Alterations To The US Temperature Record

The Biden Climate Plan is very similar in scope and intent to the Democrat Climate Platform with one notable exception. The Democrat climate platform does not mention the Green New Deal, though the Biden Plan identifies it as a “crucial framework for meeting the climate challenges we face”. Biden has selected Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and John F. Kerry to lead his Climate Task Force, both of whom are strong advocates for the Green New Deal.

The Biden Climate Plan is more specific in certain aspects than the Democrat Climate Platform. These specifics are being enunciated and modified on the campaign trail, so it is not certain how the final plan will play out. For example, Biden has enunciated several inconsistent positions on the future of hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas development, ranging from a total ban on fracking to a ban on fracking on “public lands”, including offshore areas.

The Biden campaign has adopted the slogan: “Build Back Better”. However, this slogan does not really apply to the US energy sector, since nothing in the US energy sector has been destroyed or severely damaged, so there is no need to build back since the existing infrastructure is functional and is meeting the nation’s energy needs. Arguably, the only real opportunity to “Build Back Better” exists in the Democrat-controlled cities which have been ravaged by rioting, looting and arson. However, based on the local and state government responses to the rioting and destruction, it is doubtful whether most of the businesses destroyed will choose to build back at all.

The Biden plan commits to rejoining to the Paris Accords and to further funding of the UN Green Climate Fund. It proposes to achieve greater “ambition” in the US participation and to actively seek greater ambition from the other signatories to the Paris Accords. The Biden plan sets no requirements for greater ambition globally relative to the increased ambition of the US participation. It ignores the total lack of “ambition” under the accords by China and India, among others.

The Biden plan, as explained on the campaign trail, proposes some $1 trillion plus federal funding intended to incentivize private funding and investment in net-zero facilities and equipment. However, the federal funding level and the envisioned private funding fall far short of the estimated costs of the Green New Deal. There is also no recognition of the $60+ trillion deadweight loss associated with abandoning fossil fuel resources in the ground and replacing functioning electric generation infrastructure before the end of its useful life.

The differences between the Biden plan commitment to federal funding and the actual funding requirement necessary to accomplish the goals established in the plan would be achieved by a combination of legislation and regulation compelling private sector expenditure and investment.

The Biden Climate Plan and the Democrat Climate Platform both represent government on steroids, insinuating government at all levels into corporate and personal decision making. While Biden asserts he will not raise taxes on those earning less than $400,000 per year, his plan will certainly impose other, non-tax costs and investments on virtually all taxpayers.

From: CFACT

By: Terigi Ciccone, Dr. Jah Lehr

Date: October 6, 2020

A History of Global Temperature For Those Who Never Studied Geology

"We have long thought that if more people had been required to take a course in Geology in High School, the human-caused global warming exaggerations would be more difficult to pull off on an unsuspecting public. Our simplified version of what is going on in and around the Earth should help fill the void.

 The way the Earth formed, its rotational path around our sun, and its own axis are typically taught in Geology but ignored by the well-financed climate modelers. They are arrogant enough to throw a few variables into an equation claiming its solution predicts our Earth’s temperature decades hence. Sadly you and they disregard the known fact that your TV weatherman is correct on his 7-day forecast only 56% of the time. The modelers will tell you that climate and weather are two different things ..."

A History of Global Temperature For Those Who Never Studied Geology

The 2020 Democrat Party Platform covers a broad range of topics. The section of the platform dealing with climate is entitled “Combating the Climate Crisis and Pursuing Environmental Justice”.

The section begins with the statement: “Climate change is a global emergency.”, though no source is provided for the emergency declaration. The statement is then “supported” by factual assertions regarding recent weather events and resulting economic losses, though there is no evidence that these weather events were the result of, or were aggravated by, climate change. These factual assertions are then followed by an assertion that: “Thousands of Americans have died.”, suggesting a link to climate change though there is no record of Americans dying from climate change. Finally, the section asserts, counterfactually, that: “Pacific Islanders…are losing their traditional way of life as sea level rise submerges their homelands.”.

The first climate platform plank deals with rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, seeking increased “ambition” under the Paris Accords from other nations.

The second platform plank commits to investment in clean energy generation and energy efficiency.

The third platform plank to mobilizing youths into a corps and cohort challenged to conserve public lands and deliver clean energy.

The fourth platform plank commits to eliminating carbon pollution from power plants by 2035. It further commits to install 500 million solar panels and 16,000 wind turbines; and, to a “technology neutral approach” to new power generation, including nuclear and carbon capture and storage.

The fifth platform plank commits to making “energy saving upgrades to up to 2 million low-income households and affordable and public housing units within 5 years”.

The sixth platform plank commits to “a national goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions for all new buildings by 2030 and to incentivizing tens of billions of dollars of private-sector investment to retrofit 4 million buildings”. 

The seventh platform plank commits to “transitioning the entire fleet of 50,000 school buses to American-made zero emission alternatives within 5 years” and transitioning 3 million government vehicles to zero-emissions vehicles. It also commits to “partnering with state and local governments to install at least 500,000 public charging stations from coast to coast.”

The eighth platform plank commits to “apply a carbon adjustment fee at the border” to products from countries not in compliance with the Paris Accords.

The ninth platform plank commits to empowering local communities to become more resilient to the projected impacts of the “climate crisis”.

The tenth platform plank commits to increasing support for wetlands restoration as protection against sea level rise and storm surge.

The eleventh platform plank commits to “require public companies to disclose climate risks and greenhouse gas emissions in their operations and supply chains” and to hold polluters and corporate executives accountable for intentionally hiding or distorting material information and for affecting the health and safety of workers and communities.”

A recurrent theme within the climate platform is the creation of “millions of family-supporting and union jobs”.

The concept of the “carbon adjustment fee”, as stated in the platform, ignores the fact that neither China nor India has made any commitments under the Paris Accords and thus arguably cannot be “not in compliance” with the Paris Accords.

The platform  plank regarding public companies seems certain to trigger a flood of lawsuits intended to “milk” the companies to fund the other platform planks.

From: CFACT

By: Paul Driessen

Date: October 5, 2020

Your Life Under the Green New Deal

"During the cantankerous September 29 presidential “debate,” candidate Joe Biden proclaimed “I am the Democratic Party.” He is in charge, he insisted, and his views will be Democrat policy. Others aren’t so sure – about that, about what his views actually are, or about how far to the left he would be pushed, prodded and pressured by Kamala Harris, AOC, Bernie Sanders, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Antifa mobs, and coastal and blue city governing, academic and technology elites." ...

Your Life Under the Green New Deal

In the previous commentary, A Failure of Belief, I asserted that neither science nor authority should require belief, but that both should require proof. I also asserted that both science and authority had demonstrated that they did not deserve to be believed regarding the two “crises” at issue, COVID19 and climate change. Since a basis for belief does not exist in either case, acceptance can only be based on proof; that is, on data which obviate the need for belief. Regrettably, the available data does not reach the level of proof regarding either of the “crises”.

In the case of COVID19, the primary data would consist of number of cases of the disease and number of deaths resulting from the disease. However, a high (though unknown) percentage of those who contract the disease remain asymptomatic and thus are likely not to be included in the number of cases unless they have tested positive. These individuals are not likely to have been tested because they have perceived no reason to be tested. Therefore, the data regarding the number of cases in the population are questionable and unreliable. This data reliability issue is compounded by numerous instances of false or misleading reporting of test results, such as the case in Florida in which positive test results were reported as 90+% when the actual results were 9+%.

COVID19 death data are also unreliable because of the varying criteria used by jurisdictions to classify a death as being from COVID19. For example, some jurisdictions report any death of an individual who tested positive for COVID19 as a COVID19 death, even in cases in which the actual cause of death was a traffic accident or a shooting or some pre-existing health condition. This situation renders the death data almost useless, though it has been used by the media regardless.

In the case of climate change, the primary data would consist of temperature measurements and sea level measurements. The temperature data are “adjusted”, reducing their provenance to estimates; and, there are differences in the “adjusted” temperature measurements among the sources of the original data. The sea level data are measured by two fundamentally different methods and the resulting measurements differ by a factor of two. Therefore, neither set of measurements rises to the level of proof of a particular situation.

Consensed climate science focuses on anthropogenic CO2 and other “greenhouse gases” as the cause of climate change, but there is no data which proves that anthropogenic “greenhouse” gases are the cause, or even a cause, of climate change; or, data which proves that the natural variation which caused climate change in the past has ceased to function.

Some in authority claim that climate change has caused increased hurricane frequency and severity, increased tornado frequency and intensity, more frequent and more intense precipitation and droughts, etc. However, these claims are counterfactual based on observational data. There exists no proof that climate change has had any measurable impact on severe weather frequency or intensity.

The combination of a Failure of Belief and a Failure of Proof result in confusion and uncertainty, both of which appear justified.

By: Clear Energy Alliance

The previous commentaries on coincidence and causation regarding temperature anomalies and sea level referred to two interactive composite graphs (here and here). These graphs each combine paleoclimatic estimates of historical conditions with “adjusted” data from the instrumental records. The graphs present both the paleoclimatic reconstructions and the “adjusted” instrumental data to two decimal place precision. This level of precision is unrealistic for the “adjusted” instrumental data and completely unreasonable for the paleoclimatic reconstructions.

The currently reported global average near-surface temperature anomalies are calculated from datasets which have been “adjusted” to reduce perceived inaccuracies in the original data; and, in some cases, have had temperature estimates “infilled” where real instrumental data do not exist. Most of the instrumental data is measured to one decimal place and the adjustments are made in that one decimal place. Therefore, the number in the first decimal place in the original data is an estimate in the “adjusted” temperature record and any number in the second decimal place is the result of an averaging calculation. The Law of Large Numbers legitimizes such calculations in the errors in the numbers are random, an unreasonable assumption regarding “adjusted” temperatures.

The datasets are not truly global since there are no instrumented sites in many locations. This is particularly true regarding sea surface temperatures, where the instrumentation is far less extensive than on land. The sea surface temperature measurements still include measurements taken by ships, using a variety of measurement protocols, though these are largely being replaced by data from purpose-designed buoys.

The currently reported sea level anomalies are calculated both from a limited number of coastal tide gauges and from satellites. The tide gauge data are confounded by changes in elevation of the measuring instruments due to isostatic rebound and land subsidence. The satellites currently measure changes in sea level approximately twice the values measured by the tide gauges. With this large, unresolved difference in instrumented measurements, it is not realistic to report sea level during the instrumental period to two decimal place precision, since the difference exists to the left of the decimal point.

Composite graphs such as those linked above join the paleoclimatic portion of the curve to the instrumental portion of the curve at a point, indicating a smooth transition from one to the other. Such graphs do not continue to show the values which the paleoclimatic analysis would have produced had it been continued beyond the beginning of the instrumental record, so it is not possible to compare the results of the two methods. One example of the problems this issue can cause is what Professor Phillip Jones of the University of East Anglia described as “Mike’s Nature Trick”, referring to Professor Michael Mann’s decision to transition from the paleoclimatic portion of his “hockey stick” graph to “adjusted” instrumental data at the point at which the paleoclimatic temperatures began to decline while the instrumental temperatures were increasing. The difference in the direction of temperature change between the two diverse sources from that point calls into question the validity of the analysis.

From: America Out Loud

By: Dr. Jay Lehr & Tom Harris

Date: September 15, 2020

‘Stopping Climate Change’ is a Laughing Matter

"We hear it all the time from politicians, the press and activists: ‘we must stop climate change!’

Of all the nonsensical statements emanating from the left, this one has to be the most idiotic. The only sensible response from rational people is laughter. They might as well be chanting, ‘stop continental drift,’ for all the good it will do. As Carleton University Earth Sciences Professor Tim Patterson pointed out, “Climate is and always has been variable. The only constant about climate is change; it changes continually.” From that perspective, President Donald Trump is the exact opposite of a climate change denier—he says that climate changes naturally all the time." ...

‘Stopping Climate Change’ is a Laughing Matter