Climate Change

By: Hoover Institution
Date: August 15, 2023

Dissonance: lack of agreement (the dissonance between the truth and what people want [you] to believe) – Merriam-Webster

Statements of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres regarding climate change:

• Latest IPCC climate report is “Code Red for Humanity.”
• Fossil fuels “incompatible with human survival”
• “The problem is not simply fossil fuel emissions.  It’s fossil fuels — period.”
• “We are hurtling towards disaster, eyes wide open –“
• “Now must be the time for ambition and action.”

These are assertions the Secretary-General, numerous governments of developed nations, climate activists and the global media want us to believe. Climate change is frequently referred to as a “crisis”, an “existential threat” or an “emergency”. This hyperbole is intended to spur action while ignoring the true situation.

Concerns regarding climate began with global warming, followed briefly in the 1970s by global cooling, then again in the 1980s and beyond with global warming and recently with global climate change. The shift to a focus on climate change was arguably the result of a pause in global warming over the period 1998-2012, which is currently being followed by another pause over the period from 2014 to the present. Climate change broadened the list of potential concerns beyond temperature to include sea level rise and potential worsening of weather phenomena including tropical cyclones, tornadoes, droughts, floods and wildfires.

The UN had established an arbitrary objective of keeping global temperature increase below 2°C, which was later arbitrarily reduced to 1.5°C. The current global temperature anomaly is approximately 1.0 (+/-0.2) °C. These anomaly objectives are based on the global near-surface temperature anomaly records. The concerns regarding further increases in near-surface temperature anomalies are based on the projections of unverified and unvalidated climate models, which have projected warming 2.5 - 3 times greater than observed changes. Continued temperature anomaly increases at the same rate as those over the past 140 years hardly constitute a crisis, especially since approximately 60% of the temperature increase has manifested as increased nighttime temperatures.

While the UN hierarchy, climate activists and the media have shifted their emphasis to concerns regarding more frequent, more intense and longer duration extreme weather events, the data regarding these events does not show any significant trends regarding any of these aspects for any of the extreme weather events. Several groups which provide attribution analyses for extreme weather events using unvalidated and unverified climate models have claimed that certain events could not have occurred were it not for climate change, or that events were “x” % stronger or more frequent as the result of climate change. These claims are currently impossible to verify.

Renewable energy generation equipment manufacturers and numerous national governments have claimed that the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy would reduce energy costs. However, there is no documented case in which the introduction of renewable generation, even with government subsidies and preferences, has reduced energy costs. The nations and states with the highest renewable generation percentages are also the nations and states with the highest energy costs.

In several European nations, the citizens have begun to realize that what their governments say and want them to believe is becoming further and further separated from reality.

Climate change dissonance is growing. Confidence in government is shrinking.

From: National Review

By: JOEL KOTKIN & HÜGO KRÜGER

Date: August 18, 2023

Adaptation Is the Answer

Humans have adapted to a changing climate before, and we can do it again.

The world is careening toward a climate crisis, and by that we do not mean nasty weather or impending human extinction. The real challenge lies in adapting to a changing climate without undermining an already stressed global order, not to mention imperiling democracy.

The West’s current policy agenda, based almost entirely on the promotion of “renewable” energy, seems likely to produce only marginal gains while (according to McKinsey) costing $6 trillion annually for the next 30 years, equal to a quarter taxes collected and half of all annual profits worldwide. The question is not so much how we can “fight” climate change but how to do so in a way that does not create other, arguably more disruptive, changes in society and the economy.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle lies in geopolitical realities. In China, India, Vietnam, and much of Africa, the demand for affordable and reliable power has clear priority over achieving “net zero” in the near future. Ultimately what the West does may matter more to its own self-righteousness than the planet itself. (continue reading)

Adaptation Is the Answer

There has not been a successful demonstration of a renewable plus storage grid, even with generation support from fossil, nuclear, geothermal and biomass generators. Previous commentaries (here, here and here) have described a conceptual demonstration of a renewable plus storage grid without support from fossil generation, its documentation and reporting. However, this demonstration began with installed and operational renewable generation and conceptual storage. There is growing concern that such a renewable plus storage grid, even with physical storage, would be unreliable and extremely expensive.

Recently, New York State Senator George Borrello proposed legislation in New York State which would prohibit the use of fossil fuels in the manufacturing of renewable energy equipment. This legislation would extend the conceptual demonstration discussed above one step upstream, requiring demonstration that the components of a renewable plus storage grid could be manufactured using predominantly renewable energy, without fossil fueled backup.

However, there is the potential to extend the conceptual demonstration several more steps upstream. The Administration proclaimed that the transition to renewables would result in millions of new, high-paying union jobs, presumably in the US. They also assured that this transition would result in dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Analyzing the success of the transition in achieving these goals requires starting at the beginning of the supply chain and expanding upon Senator Borrello’s proposed legislation.

The supply chain begins with the use of electric mining equipment to mine the raw materials required to fabricate the wind, solar and storage components of the renewable plus storage grid in US mines and the use of electric transportation to move these raw materials to the manufacturing facilities at which the components of the system would be fabricated. The fabrication of the components would occur in US plants using electric processing equipment.

The steel and cement required for installation of the system components would also be produced in US plants. In the case of the calcining of limestone to produce cement, carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems would be required to capture the CO2 released from the limestone.

Preparation of the installation sites for the wind and solar generators and the storage systems would be performed by US manufactured electric earthmoving equipment. The system components would be transported to the installation sites by US manufactured electric trucks or electrified trains and erected using US manufactured electric cranes.

The supply chain described above would be drastically different from the current supply chains for wind turbines, solar collectors and storage batteries, all of which currently require mining and processing of minerals in Asia and Africa and frequently rely on foreign manufacture, particularly of solar collectors and wind turbines. The current supply chain effectively limits US jobs to system installation and maintenance, and excludes mining, processing and manufacturing jobs. The mining and processing jobs exist mostly in Asia and Africa, while the manufacturing jobs exist in Asia and Europe.

The mining and processing jobs in Asia and Africa and the manufacturing jobs in Asia reputedly rely on child, forced and prison labor, which substantially reduces their costs.

From: Science Matters

By: Ron Clutz

Date: August 19, 2023

The Big Lie About Global Warming

The notion that CO2 from human activities causes global warming has multiple flaws, many of which have been dissected and rebutted here and elsewhere.  But The Big Lie is to fundamentally misrepresent how Earth’s climate system works. Richard Lindzen explains in the above interview with Jordan Peterson.  For those who prefer reading I provide a transcript from the closed captions in italics with my bolds and added images.

JP: When you started to object to the narrative, back say in ‘92, To what narrative were you objecting and on what grounds were you objecting?

RL: You’re touching on something that took me a while to understand. You know Goebbels famously said: If you tell a big enough lie and repeat it often enough, it’ll become the truth. there’s been a lot of that in this. But there are aspects of establishing the narrative, that is, what makes something the truth that I hadn’t appreciated.

So the narrative was the climate is determined by a greenhouse effect
and adding CO2 to it increases warming. And moreover besides CO2
the natural greenhouse substances–water vapor, clouds, upper level clouds–
will amplify whatever man does.

Now that immediately goes against Le Chatelier’s principle which says: If you perturb a system and it is capable internally of counteracting that, it will. And our system is so capable. (continue reading)

The Big Lie About Global Warming

The two previous commentaries, Climate = Sum of Weather and Climate Events & Weather discuss how climate is established and how specific climate events affect weather. However, the far more controversial topic is how climate and particularly the recent climate change affects weather now and might affect weather in the future.

The Modern Warm Period essentially began with the end of the Little Ice Age and the start of the industrial revolution in the late-1800s, as shown in the graphs below from NASA GISS and UAH.

However, the warming of concern has occurred mostly since the 1950s, the period when anthropogenic CO2 emissions began to increase significantly, as shown in the graph below.

The increase in global average temperature, measured as anomalies from some reference climate period, has led to concerns that continued increases in anthropogenic CO2 emissions would lead to continually increasing global average temperatures and to significant changes in regional climates and the global climate overall. The increase in the global average temperature anomaly is approximately 1.0(+/-0.2)°C over a period of  approximately 150 years.

The potential climate-induced changes of concern include changes in the frequency, duration, extent and severity of weather events such as tropical cyclones, droughts, floods and tornadoes. There are also concerns regarding increases in sea surface temperatures and sea level rise associated with the increasing sea surface temperatures and with glacial melting.

The IPCC Working Group 1 analyzed these issues and reported low confidence regarding any significant trends in any of these weather event characteristics. However, the IPCC Summary for Policymakers and later the IPCC Synthesis Report essentially ignored this analysis. Their publication, accompanied by dire press releases and hyperbolic declarations of “Code Red” by the UN Secretary-General and others, has stirred concern that the nations of the globe have not done enough to halt climate change and that “greater ambition” is required to avoid “climageddon”. Cries of “Earth on Fire” and “Boiling Oceans” have poured forth from the cheerleaders of climate doom, regardless of the fact that the available data do not support and frequently contradict their assertions.

This concern regarding worsening of weather events has spawned numerous efforts at attribution of purported current or potential changes such as more frequent or stronger hurricanes, more frequent or massive floods, longer and more extensive droughts, more frequent or more powerful tornadoes, etc. to climate change caused by global warming. There is even an effort to produce instant attribution studies to maximize attention while the analyzed weather event is still “front of mind” with the public. These attribution studies are based on unverified and unvalidated models, as are the projections of future climate change.

One of the most inexplicable aspects of these concerns is the assertion that climate change threatens food production in the face of confirmed global greening and record global food crop yields, while at the same time numerous national governments are beginning to take action against farmers, taking productive farm land and requiring reduction in herds of dairy cattle and meat animals.

Meanwhile, in the face of developed nation angst, the developing nations continue to increase fossil fuel use and emissions at a rate which more than offsets the emissions reductions by the developed nations and total global annual emissions continue to rise unabated.

From: Watts Up With That

By: Robert Girouard

Date: August 2, 2023

A Brief History of Climate, From Prehistory to The Imaginary Crisis of the 21st Century

Since appearing in Africa a few hundred thousand years ago, Sapiens has had to contend with climatic changes of a magnitude and severity far beyond the benign warming we’ve experienced since the end of the Little Ice Age. These include at least two glacial-interglacial cycles, numerous major shifts in temperature and humidity, and cataclysmic eruptions such as that of the Toba volcano around 73,000 BP (yr before present), whose ashes darkened the sky for years.  Thanks to his intelligence, Sapiens not only overcame all these challenges posed by a turbulent and unpredictable nature, but also became increasingly resilient, less and less dependent on the climate.

A tumultuous prehistory

From 190,000 BP onwards, our distant African ancestors first faced the Riss glaciation, followed by the Würm glaciation. Default climate during these ices ages was cold, dry and dusty, and polar at higher latitudes.

The mega-droughts that affected much of tropical Africa between 135,000 BP and 75,000 BP made life very difficult, forcing Sapiens to take refuge in the caves along the South African coast (Blombos). The Great Lakes Tanganyika and Malawi, now several hundred meters deep, remained almost completely dry for several thousand years, on several occasions.

Sapiens experienced a brief interval of favorable climate during the Eemian interglacial, which began around 130,000 BP and lasted around 15,000 years. It was significantly warmer than today, as evidenced by the disappearance of the Arctic summer ice pack and Alpine glaciers, and the greening of the Sahara. During the heat peak, the oceans were on average 2°C warmer than at present, which implies much higher temperatures on land. Some archaic Sapiens took advantage of this exceptional climatic window to leave Africa.

Between 70,000 BP and 60,000 BP, thanks to improved and wetter conditions during the last ice age, populations migrated from the coasts of South Africa to East Africa, the starting point for new exits from Africa, this time by Sapiens sapiens. (continue reading)

A Brief History of Climate, From Prehistory to The Imaginary Crisis of the 21st Century

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defines climate as the sum of weather events over 30-year periods, which they refer to as climate normals. Many nations update their climate normals on a 10-year cycle, as recommended by WMO. These climate normals are then used as the basis for monitoring excursions beyond the bounds of the reference normal. The most discussed anomalies are temperature anomalies based on the current concerns about anthropogenic global warming.

The graph below illustrates a number of long-duration climate events over the past 4500 years which produced significant temperature anomalies. The graph is based on a climate normal temperature of 57° (14°C). In the current era, the graph shows 3 warm events (Roman, Medieval and Current) and 2 cold events (Dark Ages and Little Ice Age). The graph also shows the very brief but very rapid cooling event in the 1970s, which is considered a weather event because of its short duration. Concern about anthropogenic influence on climate change began with the end of the Little Ice Age around 1850 and became more intense around 1950. The causes of the clearly cyclical climate warming and cooling cycles prior to the end of the Little Ice Age are not well understood. However, they are almost certainly not anthropogenic.

There are also several shorter-term climate events which affect weather on a large scale, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The PDO and the AMO transition between what are referred to as warm and cool phases. The phase transitions are not well defined and understood, and they are not generally predictable. The PDO warm plus cool phase duration ranges from approximately 40-60 years. The AMO warm plus cool phase duration ranges from approximately 60-80 years. The PDO is currently in a cool phase and the AMO is currently in a warm phase, as shown below.

The PDO graph above shows the significant variation in PDO strength and the frequent, brief excursions from phase to phase. The smoother AMO graph more clearly shows phase duration, though still showing significant variation in strength.

The PDO has significant impacts on climatic conditions and weather events affecting South America, Australia and Asia, as well as North America. The El Nino Southern Oscillation is also affected by the PDO. El Nino events are more likely to occur during the positive or warm phase of the PDO, while La Nina conditions are more likely in the negative or cool phase. The recent triple-dip La Nina occurred during the PDO cool phase, while two recent super El Nino events occurred during the PDO positive or warm phase.

The AMO has significant impacts on climate conditions and weather events in the North Atlantic Ocean and along its coasts, as well as Africa and India. The warm phase of the AMO is believed to contribute to the frequency and strength of hurricanes. However, the “drought” of major landfalling hurricanes which began in 2006 occurred during the warm phase of the AMO.

The relatively short duration of extensive, accurate measurements of sea surface temperatures and the long duration of PDO and AMO cycles makes it difficult to analyze the impacts of the phase of one of these climate events on the other. However, the differing durations of these two major climate events mean that they will not always be in the same phase or in different phases; and, the two climate events do influence each other. There remains much to be learned about these interactions.

From: Watts Up With That

By: Don Ritter

Date: August 1, 2023

Abandon Fossil Fuels, Empower China

Autocratic Producers (primarily Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela and China) and certain democratic (or semi-democratic) Consumers (fossil fuel-dependent nations, mostly in the Global South), are uniting over oil, gas, coal, petrochemicals, natural gas-derived fertilizers and wind-solar-battery raw materials that are essential for building and maintaining modern industrial nations.

The implications are enormous, for global commerce, and especially for America.

China straddles both worlds. It’s the world’s largest coal producer and consumer – and the second-largest fossil fuels consumer after the USA.Although the United States remains the planet’s largest oil and gas producer, government policies are restricting investment in future domestic production, forcing U.S. companies to scour the world to increase production.

The autocratic Producers clearly benefit from America’s declining production, because major Consumers (India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and others) that buy oil, gas and petrochemicals must feed their people, fuel their vehicles, and sustain or grow their economies at reasonable cost.

Giant energy Producer Russia continues to sustain its economy and finance its war in Ukraine, as it waits for Western electorates to lose patience and reduce military aid. Moscow counts on continued fossil fuel sales to Consumercountries, particularly China.

China is importing record amounts of oil and gas from Russia, making it the largest financier of Russia’s Ukraine war. China’s dual-use technologies also enter indirectly into the Russian war machine. Courtesy of Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, China is building new refineries and becoming a major petrochemicals producer – even as Biden energy policies curtail U.S. refinery and petrochemical investments.

Petrochemicals fuel or provide building blocks for just about everything. They therefore add tremendous value to the crude oil China imports from Russia.

Meanwhile, America and the West pursue sweeping policies on “manmade climate change.” That means they deride and downgrade the value of fossil fuels that are the lifeblood of all industrialized nations: Producers, Consumers and those fortunate or wise enough to play both roles. (continue reading)

Abandon Fossil Fuels, Empower China

Climate characterizes the average weather conditions for a particular location over a long period of time (usually 30 years). World Meteorological Organization

Weather is a series of events occurring at a specific location at a specific time. The events include high and low temperatures, precipitation, wind speed, storm nature and intensity and other factors. These events are typically recorded daily and compiled as the average weather for a specific location in a specific month. This compilation is performed for each specific location for each month of a given year and reported as the average weather for that year.

Climate is the compilation of the series of events for each specific location for each year over a period of 30 years. However, the history of weather events in each year of the 30-year period can vary widely from year to year relative to the compilation which is the climate for that specific location.

Once the climate for a location has been established, future weather can be compared with the climate average for that particular climate period and also with the historic range of weather events from which the climate for the location was compiled. In most cases, the future weather would be expected to fall within the range of the weather events for the climate period. However, the future weather would not be expected to match the average weather for the climate period.

The occurrence of weather which falls outside the range of weather conditions which compose the climate period is of interest because it is different. It is typically referred to as an anomaly. The repeated occurrence of weather which falls outside the range of the weather conditions which constitute the established climate raise the question of whether there will be a long-term change in the weather conditions which would ultimately constitute a climate change.

Climate change can be tracked in several ways. Tracking a moving 30-year period, adding the most recent year’s data and dropping the data from the oldest year in the climate period would alter the range of events for the moving climate period, if the most recent year’s data is outside the range of the prior climate period. However, the effect on the climate average would likely be minimal. Tracking is more frequently done on 10- and 30-year periods, which makes the effect of weather outside the range of the previous climate period more obvious. A thirty-year period with different ranges of weather events and/or a different average would constitute a changed climate.

Weather events are recorded across the globe in a variety of different climate regimes, ranging from deserts to the poles. The changes in each of these climate regimes are monitored and recorded. They are then compiled and analyzed to establish an assessment of the global climate and of changes in the global climate. One of the results of combining the data from the numerous climate regimes is that significant detail is lost in the averaging process across months, years and the 30-year period.

From: Climate Etc.

By: Hakon Karlsen

Date: July 8, 2023

How much warming can we expect in the 21st century?

A comprehensive explainer of climate sensitivity to CO2

Short summary

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the atmosphere’s climate sensitivity to CO2is likely between 2.5 and 4.0°C. Simply put, this means that (in the very long term) Earth’s temperature will rise between 2.5 and 4.0°C when the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere doubles.

A 2020 study (Sherwood20) greatly influenced how the IPCC calculated the climate sensitivity. Sherwood20 has been “extremely influential, including in informing the assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in the 2021 IPCC Sixth Assessment Scientific Report (AR6); it was cited over twenty times in the relevant AR6 chapter“, according to Nic Lewis. A Comment in Nature confirmed this view.1)

Nic Lewis took a closer look at this study, and in September 2022, he published his own study (Lewis22) that criticizes Sherwood20. By correcting errors and using more recent data, including from AR6, Lewis22 found that the climate sensitivity may be about 30% lower than what Sherwood20 had found.

If we know what the climate sensitivity is, and if we also know approximately the amount of greenhouse gases that will be emitted going forward, then the amount of future warming that’s caused by greenhouse gases can also be estimated.

In terms of future emissions, a 2022 study (Pielke22) found that something called RCP3.4 is the most plausible emissions scenario. Traditionally, another scenario (RCP8.5), has been used as a business-as-usual scenario, but this is now widely regarded as an extremely unlikely scenario, with unrealistically high emissions. (continue reading)

How much warming can we expect in the 21st century?

The UN recently reported that “extreme weather caused two million deaths, cost $4 trillion over the last 50 years”.

The graph below, prepared by Bjorn Lomborg, plots annual deaths, averaged by decade, from extreme weather and other non-weather events.

The graph provides both accurate information and misinformation in several ways. The graph accurately plots all the available data, showing the decrease in deaths from extreme weather over the period for which accurate data are available. The decrease is most dramatic prior to 1970, though the decrease continues through the following 50-year period, which is the focus of the UN report.

The graph is labeled “Annual climate-related deaths” and identifies “floods, droughts, storms, wildfires and heatwaves” as the “climate-related” events of interest. However, the UN accurately describes extreme weather events as the cause of the deaths, not climate.

The deaths of interest are “climate-related” to the extent that climate is the sum of weather over a period of 30 years, as specified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The choice of “climate-related” would appear to suggest some contribution of climate change to the ongoing deaths. However, the continuing decline of extreme weather deaths is inconsistent with the suggestion that climate change is making extreme weather events more extreme or more frequent.

The subheading of the graph includes heatwaves, but does not include cold waves, although studies reported by The Lancet suggest that deaths from cold are approximately 10 times greater than deaths from heat, even in areas with warm climates.

The subheading also includes wildfires, which are not actually extreme weather events, though lightning strikes are one identified cause of fires which might develop into wildfires under certain conditions. However, there are numerous other causes of wildfires which are not weather-related or climate-related, including electric transmission and distribution faults, improperly controlled cooking and campfires and arson. There are also factors which can cause fires to become wildfires, including poor forest management practices.

The UN report includes the following explanation: “Over two million deaths and $4.3 trillion in economic losses; that’s the impact of a half-century of extreme weather events turbo-charged by man-made global warming, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Monday.” However, the data over the past half-century shows little evidence of the “turbo-charging” by “man-made global warming” asserted by the WMO. In fact, this assertion, while consistent with the political IPCC Summary for Policymakers and Synthesis Report, is inconsistent with the data as analyzed in the IPCC Assessment Reports.

The UN report also gives no recognition to the results of normalization studies which demonstrate that the principal causes of the increase in economic losses are increasing GDP and increasing construction of infrastructure in areas subject to extreme weather events. The continuing decline in deaths from extreme weather events is moderated somewhat by increasing population in areas subject to extreme weather events.

It appears essential that events resulting in large numbers of deaths and massive economic losses be analyzed and reported clearly and carefully. In this case, the UN has failed to do so.

From: Watts Up With That

By: Willis Eschenbach

Date: July 7, 2023

Fossil and Non-Fossil Fuels

In my previous post, The Myth Of Replacing Fossil Fuels, I looked at the new BP global use of fossil and non-fossil fuels. In this post, I’ll take a more detailed look at individual countries, and then return to world values. To start with, here’s what I learned along the way.

Figure 1. Population by Country

Given that, let me look at the energy usage by source of the most populous countries. You may recall from my previous post that in many analyses they use what are called “input-equivalent” values for non-fossil fuels. These are the true values multiplied by 2.5 or more. Why use those? I’ll repeat BP’s explanation.

While there are indeed uses for those artificially inflated energy values, what they don’t do is show us just how much energy is actually coming from each source. So let me go through the biggest countries, showing the true energy usage by source. We’ll start with China, although by the very latest figures, India is now the most populous country. (continue reading)

Fossil and Non-Fossil Fuels

The most common graphical presentation regarding global warming, or climate change, is the graph of the increasing temperature anomalies beginning in the late 1800s. The graphs below, created by Anthony Watts for the Watts Up With That website convert that data from anomalies expressed as °C to actual temperatures in °F. The upper graph uses a truncated “Y” axis with a temperature range just slightly larger than the range of the temperature change over the period, maximizing the perception of the temperature change.

The lower graph plots the same temperature data using a “Y” axis with a temperature range representative of a typical mid-latitude location (-20°F to +120°F). The temperature change over the period is still visible on this scale, but appears far less impressive or concerning than in the upper graph.

NASA GISS 1880 – 2022 | Anomaly vs. Absolute Temperature   Source: Anthony Watts

The graph below originated on the Powerline blog and has been modified here with the addition of the red and blue bands representing the average diurnal temperature ranges for the peak summer month (July, red) and peak winter month (January, blue) in Wichita. This allows comparison of the global average annual temperature change over the period from 1880 through 2015 (~1.6°F) with the average diurnal and peak seasonal temperature changes in Wichita. Note that the chart temperature range is from -10°F to +110°F, slightly lower than the -22°F to +114°F record temperature range for Wichita.

Again, the temperature change over the period is visible on this scale, but pales in comparison to the typical diurnal temperature ranges, no less the record high and low temperatures for the reference location.

The next set of graphs show the change in the Greenland ice mass, on the left using a truncated “Y” axis to emphasize the scale of the ice loss and on the right showing the same ice loss relative to the total Greenland ice mass. Showing only the left panel conveys a severely distorted impression of the situation.

A comparison of presentations of satellite data capturing Greenland’s ice mass loss. The image on the right shows changes in Greenland’s ice mass relative to Greenland’s total ice mass. Sources: The data plotted in these graphs are from the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise, a joint exercise by NASA and the European Space Agency.4 Graphs originally by Willis Eschenbach. Adapted and annotated by Anthony Watts.

The graphs below are perhaps the most egregious example of graphical disinformation. In this case, data are available from 1926, showing a dramatic decline in acres burned over the period through 2020. However, by selecting a truncated “X” axis ranging from the lowest point in the area burned data (1983) to 2020, the lower graph conveys the impression that there is a significant upward trend in area burned. This is done to create the impression that climate change is contributing to, or perhaps causing, the increase in area burned, while the area burned was far higher before climate change might have been an issue.

A comparison of the before and after erasure NIFC dataset showing acres burned. Note the blue trend line goes from a negative trend to a positive one when cherry picked data is used. Source: Anthony Watts

Graphs can be an extremely useful tool in conveying information, but they can also easily be used to create disinformation or a distorted impression regarding a situation.

From: Watts Up With That

By: Bob Irvine

Date: July 5, 2023

Does Wind Intermittance Over Short Hourly Periods Gives a Clearer Picture?

Cheap intermittent renewables appear to be very expensive.

The current Australian Government has ruled out nuclear energy and is committed to phasing out all fossil fuel base load power with gas seen as a transition fuel to an energy grid run entirely by intermittent wind/solar with battery or pumped hydro storage, with a small contribution from direct hydroelectric base load.

Can any of the electrical engineers at this site estimate the cost to consumers of a system run in this way. Is such a system even possible?

I live in Queensland, Australia. Until 30/6/23 our power bill for general usage was 25.559 Aus cents per kwh. On the 1/7/23 it jumped to 31.724 Aus cents per kwh a rise of about 24%. This is up from about 19 cents per kwh a few years ago.

The long-term picture is not much better. The Australian power price history has a close correlation with the penetration of intermittent generation into the system. See Figure 1, below.

Figure 1, Australian Energy prices compared to intermittent wind/solar penetration into the grid.

The Australian Energy market Operator (AEMO) has been singing the praises of “low cost” wind/solar for many years now.

To counter these assertions, I decided to collate the daily wind energy input to the Main Australian Grid, referred to here as simply the “grid”. This Main Australian Grid has an enormous area but does not include the Western Australian grid which is separate and about 8% of the size of the main grid.

My data source is this great site compiled over many years by Anton Lang. Thanks Anton. (continue reading)

Does Wind Intermittance Over Short Hourly Periods Gives a Clearer Picture?