The Paris Accords call for the developed nations to provide $100 billion per year by 2020 to fund climate change “adaptation and mitigation” programs in the developing nations. The Accords also call for the developed nations to provide ~$400 billion per year to compensate developing nations for “loss and damage” resulting from climate change. The Accords call for this funding from the developed nations on the basis that they have caused / contributed to the climate change which has occurred over the past several decades and thus bear responsibility for compensating the “victims” of this climate change for its effects on their nations.

The development and disbursement of a funding stream of approximately one half trillion dollars per year, in the absence of documented needs for “adaptation and mitigation” and documented “loss and damage”, raises serious fiduciary responsibility issues.

• What criteria are used to determine that the situation to be considered for funding is the result of climate change, specifically anthropogenic climate change, and not the result of severe weather or other causes?
• What criteria determine that a situation requires “adaptation” or “mitigation”?
• Who determines the appropriate “adaptation and mitigation” approaches?
• Who evaluates the “loss and damage” and the extent to which it is the result of climate change, specifically anthropogenic climate change, rather than severe weather or other causes?
• Who assures that the funds provided to compensate for “loss and damage” are used in a way that eliminates / minimizes the likelihood of future “loss or damage”?
• Who controls the disbursement of funds and assures that the funds are used for the intended purpose?

There is no question that severe weather events must be adapted to and the risks of severe weather damage mitigated. There is also no question that severe weather events cause loss and damage. However, the funding intended to be provided under the Paris Accords through the Green Climate Fund are intended to deal specifically with adaptation and mitigation issues and loss and damage resulting from climate change, specifically anthropogenic climate change.

Climate change is the result of natural variation and other causes, likely including human activities which emit “greenhouse” gases to the atmosphere and which alter the albedo of the globe. It is not currently possible to determine the extent of human contribution to climate change; and, it is clearly demonstrable that climate change was occurring prior to the mid-twentieth century when the influence of human activity on climate is thought to have begun to any significant degree.

Scientists have begun to develop attribution studies in an attempt to establish the extent of the impact of human activity on severe weather events and climate change. However, these attribution studies rely on unverified climate models and estimated climate sensitivities and feedbacks. Therefore, their outputs hardly constitute evidence of some percentage of anthropogenic influence on any particular severe weather event.

Should the funding called for under the Paris Accords ever be made available, it would be essential to assure that it did not disappear down the rathole in numerous kleptocracies rather than accomplish its stated purpose. The intended purpose of these fund transfers, the de-development of the developed nations, would occur regardless.

“The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.”, Lady Margaret Thatcher

By: Clear Energy Alliance

The earth does not have a climate, except as an “average” of thousands of local climates. Each of those local climates is changing, though not always in the same way or at the same pace. The “average” climate is changing, as measured by numerous temperature measuring stations and reported as global average temperature anomalies. These anomalies are calculated deviations from the conditions measured over a 30+ year reference period. There is no explicit recognition of the climate of this reference period as the “ideal” average global climate. There is, however, the inference that this reference period, or some other period, was “ideal” and that the recently calculated anomalies represent a departure from that “ideal”.

The thousands of local climates on the earth vary tremendously. The highest temperature ever recorded on earth (134^°F) occurred in Furnace Creek, CA in July, 1913. The lowest temperature ever recorded on earth (-128.5^°F) occurred in Vostok, Antarctica in July, 1983. Neither of those record temperatures would likely be considered a characteristic of an ideal climate. The current estimated global average surface temperature is 58.6^°F, well above the mean of the global temperature extremes. The current global annual average temperature anomaly is ~1.6^°F, suggesting that 57^°F was the annual average temperature during the reference period.

National average annual temperatures range from Canada at 22^°F to Burkina Faso at 83^°F. The US average temperature is 47^°F. US cities with an average annual temperature approximately equal to the global annual average temperature of 57^°F during the reference period include: Albuquerque, NM; Louisville, KY; St. Louis, MO; and, Wichita, KS. European cities with similar average annual temperatures include Sochi, Russia and Istanbul, Turkey.

Miami, FL has an average annual temperature of 77.2^°F, with an average high temperature of 84.3^°F and an average low temperature of 70.1^°F; and, record temperatures of 98^°F and 30^°F. Miami’s annual average temperature is 18.7^°F warmer than the global average. Barrow, AK has an average annual temperature of 11.8^°F, with an average high temperature of 17.3^°F and an average low temperature of 6.3^°F; and, record temperatures of 79^°F and -56^°F. Miami’s average high and low temperatures vary by 14.2^°F, while the record temperatures vary by 68^°F, nearly 5 times the average variation. Barrow’s average high and low temperatures vary by only 11^°F, while the record temperatures vary by 135^°F, more than 12 times the average variation. Barrow’s annual average is 46.7^°F below the global average.

Somewhere, between the record global temperatures, within the range of national average annual temperatures and climates, lies the “ideal” global annual temperature and the “ideal” global annual climate. There are numerous nations for which an increase in annual average temperatures would probably represent a move toward an “ideal” climate, while there are other nations for which it would represent a move away from an “ideal” climate. In each case, that perception would be based on the characteristics of the “ideal” climate. These perceptions vary considerably, but seem to favor warmer climates with limited seasonal variation.

• From: Watts Up With That?
• By: William Ward
• January 1, 2019

A condensed version of a paper entitled: “Violating Nyquist: Another Source of Significant Error in the Instrumental Temperature Record”

"The 169-year long instrumental temperature record is built upon 2 measurements taken daily at each monitoring station, specifically the maximum temperature (Tmax) and the minimum temperature (Tmin). These daily readings are then averaged to calculate the daily mean temperature as Tmean = (Tmax+Tmin)/2. Tmax and Tmin measurements are also used to calculate monthly and yearly mean temperatures. These mean temperatures are then used to determine warming or cooling trends. This “historical method” of using daily measured Tmax and Tmin values for mean and trend calculations is still used today. However, air temperature is a signal and measurement of signals must comply with the mathematical laws of signal processing. The Nyquist-Shannon Sampling Theorem tells us that we must sample a signal at a rate that is at least 2x the highest frequency component of the signal. This is called the Nyquist Rate. Sampling at a rate less than this introduces aliasing error into our measurement. The slower our sample rate is compared to Nyquist, the greater the error will be in our mean temperature and trend calculations. The Nyquist Sampling Theorem is essential science to every field of technology in use today. Digital audio, digital video, industrial process control, medical instrumentation, flight control systems, digital communications, etc., all rely on the essential math and physics of ..."

A condensed version of a paper entitled: “Violating Nyquist: Another Source of Significant Error in the Instrumental Temperature Record”

NASA launched the first of the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellites in 1997. CERES is managed by NASA’s Langley Research Center. The CERES surface datasets include a dataset of the upwelling longwave radiation from the surface. This dataset can be converted to surface temperature using the Stefan-Boltzmann equation if the surface emissivity is known. Since the emissivity of common surfaces vary, but are equal to or greater than 0.94, only minimal error is introduced to actual surface temperatures by using an emissivity of 1.0; and, no error affects relative temperatures or temperature trends.

This suggests an opportunity to employ the CERES satellite surface dataset in combination with a relatively small number of highly accurate near-surface temperature measuring stations distributed around the globe to provide a far more comprehensive near-surface temperature dataset which would not require data “adjustment”. A recent paper by Willis Eschenbach suggests that the CERES surface temperature trends match well with the Reynolds sea surface temperature and the UAH MSU (University of Alabama Huntsville / microwave sounding units) lower tropospheric temperature trends, though they are lower than the Berkeley Earth and HadCRUT surface temperature trends by a factor of ~1.5.

Employing the CERES satellite surface dataset in combination with the US Climate Reference Network (CRN) would avoid use of the “adjusted” near-surface temperature records produced by Berkeley Earth, HadCRUT, NOAA and NASA GISS. Installation of a limited number of near-surface temperature measuring stations like the US CRN stations throughout the globe would facilitate “ground-truthing” of the CERES land surface data.  Similarly, the drifting and Argos buoys would be used to “ground-truth” the CERES sea surface temperature data.

This approach would represent a major change in the measurement and reporting of global surface and near-surface temperatures; and, a break in the instrumental temperature record. Therefore, it would be essential that the deviations between the CERES temperatures and the current near-surface and sea surface temperature records be resolved. It appears that much of this deviation in the near-surface temperature records is the result of Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects on the existing near-surface temperature measuring stations and the repeated “adjustments” to the near-surface temperature records by their producers. Similarly, it appears that much of the deviation in the sea surface temperature record is the result of the continuing use of temperature measurements made in a variety of ways by surface ships.

The existing US CRN measuring stations could be used to establish accurate absolute surface temperature data points which could then be used to correct the emissivities used in the surface temperature conversion; and, to establish the extent of UHI effects on the existing near-surface temperature records and the accuracy of the “adjustment” protocols used to prepare the near-surface temperature data for inclusion in the global near-surface temperature anomaly products. The Argos buoys and the floater buoys could perform the same roles for the sea surface temperature measurements.

The greatest advantage of this approach to using the CERES data is the complete global coverage provided by these satellites, including measurements of the Arctic and Antarctic surfaces.

• From: NoTricksZone
• By: Kenneth Richard
• January 7, 2019

U.S. Media Bans Scientific Dissent – Claim Wildfires, Floods, Droughts, Hurricanes Are Human-Controlled

"NBC News’ Chuck Todd recently asserted that we humans can control the climate and the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events (hurricanes, floods, droughts) and disasters (wildfires) with our CO2 emissions. He has declared the science is “settled” on this point and therefore no “denier” is allowed on his Meet the Press program. But Todd and the members of his panel have recited claims that are contravened by observational evidence and scientific publications."

U.S. Media Bans Scientific Dissent – Claim Wildfires, Floods, Droughts, Hurricanes Are Human-Controlled

Climate Priorities 2019 focused on issues related to measurement and modeling of the earth’s climate: temperature measurement, climate sensitivity, forcings and feedbacks, and, model verification. These issues are a priority for 2019, but they have been a priority for decades without resolution. However, they are hardly the only unresolved or poorly understood issues in climate science.

The oceans cover approximately 70% of the surface of the planet. There are several natural ocean phenomena which have significant effects on weather and climate which are known but not well understood. On a global scale, the Global Ocean Conveyor Belt (GOCB) circulates water among the world’s oceans. While scientists are aware that the GOCB exists, there is less certainty about why; and, about how its existence influences climate globally. Perhaps the best-known component of the GOCB is the Gulf Stream, which is one of the streams which compose the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. There are numerous other regional currents which also have weather and climate effects in the various ocean basins.

Source: NASA/JPL

The GOCB interacts with several regional phenomena which affect both weather and climate, including:

• El Nino southern Oscillation (ENSO);
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); and,
• Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

These regional phenomena occur over very different time frames. The El Nino Southern Oscillation consists of two relatively short-lived phenomena (1-2 year duration). The warm phenomena are referred to as El Ninos, while the cool phenomena are referred to as La Nina. The timing of the ENSO phenomena are not highly predictable and their magnitudes vary considerably, as do their effects on climate.

Source: UAH

The graph of global lower atmosphere temperatures above illustrates the climate effects of ENSO events, among other things, highlighted by two Super El Ninos in 1997-1998 and 2016/2017.

The factors which trigger ENSO events and determine their intensity are not well understood, but the events have significant weather effects and arguably might have significant climate effects as well.

The PDO is a longer-term phenomenon, with an estimated period of 20-30 years for both its warm phase and its cool phase. The impacts of the phases and the phase change on weather and climate are not well understood, nor is their interaction with ENSO events in the Pacific Basin.

The AMO is an even longer term phenomenon, with an estimated period of 60-80 years for both its warm phase and its cool phase. The impacts of the phases and the phase change are even less well understood than for the PDO, because the period of the phases is so long that perhaps only a single phase change has been subjected to instrumental measurement.

Understanding the factors which cause these phenomena and the effects of these individual phenomena and their interactions are a major scientific challenge. Once these phenomena are well understood, they can be modeled and included in the global climate models, so that their effects can be included in the modeled scenarios. Until that is the case, their absence represents a significant limitation to the accuracy and thus the utility of the climate models.

There continue to be four fundamental climate science research priorities:

• accurate and comprehensive temperature measurements;
• accurate climate sensitivity determination;
• accurate feedback magnitude determination; and,
• a verified, accurate and comprehensive climate model.

The political process struggles to advance in the absence of these fundamentals, spending essential resources on political advocacy efforts rather than on addressing these scientific priorities.

The first research priority, accurate and comprehensive temperature measurements, applies to both near-surface land and sea surface temperature measurements. Accurate temperature measurement facilities for both applications exist, but they are not comprehensively deployed and are not used exclusively as a result.

The US Climate Research Network (CRN) provides accurate near-surface temperature measurements; and, its use of three instruments assures continuous measurement while permitting detection of instrument failure or drift. The measurement sites are located away from infrastructure which could cause Urban Heat Island effects on the measurements. Deployment of similar measuring stations globally would provide comprehensive near-surface temperature data which would not require “adjustment”.

The collection of drifting buoys and the Argo floats provide accurate temperature measurements, though an array of three measuring instruments would provide the same ability to detect instrument failure or drift available with the US CRN. The total number of floats and buoys deployed and their distribution globally is currently inadequate to produce a comprehensive picture of global sea surface temperature.

Establishing an accurate relationship between the land near-surface and the sea surface temperature measurements and the more comprehensive satellite temperature measurements might minimize the number of additional measuring stations required to provide the necessary data.

The second research priority would facilitate replacing the current estimated range of sensitivities used to drive the climate models with a single accurate and verifiable climate sensitivity. The IPCC currently uses a range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.5 – 4.5. However, recent research by several scientists suggests the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is more likely between 0.5 and 2.0. These lower climate sensitivities would result in significantly smaller increases in global temperatures as the result of a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, these lower climate sensitivities are still estimates over a relatively wide range, rather than a definitive number, leaving significant uncertainty regarding potential future temperature increases.

The third research priority would resolve the dispute between the consensed climate science community, which generally argues that feedback is net positive, and researchers analyzing satellite data, who argue that feedbacks are net negative. This is a very significant difference which affects projections of potential future temperature increases.

The fourth research priority would determine whether it is possible to accurately model the climate changes which have already occurred and been documented over the past 30-year climate period. This would require: initializing the model(s) with conditions 30 years previous; using accurate climate sensitivity and climate feedback measurements in the model runs; and, producing an accurate modeled replication of the climate changes in the intervening 30-year period.

The successful achievement of the first three research priorities listed above would make it possible to pursue the fourth priority. However, it is possible that the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns remaining in climate science might make accurate modeling unachievable. Also, even if accurate modeling of the most recent climate period is achieved, there is still no assurance that the successful model has any predictive ability over the longer term.

A pyramid is an inherently stable structure built upon a broad base which tapers toward a point at its top. A pyramid scheme is an inherently unstable structure built upon a point and expanding to a broad top.

Perhaps the most famous pyramids are those in Egypt, which are a testament to the stability and durability of the structural form. Perhaps the most famous pyramid scheme is the scheme created by Charles Ponzi and later emulated by Bernard Madoff, which are a testament to the instability of the inverted pyramid. The more common pyramid schemes are the numerous multi-level marketing schemes, which “grow like Topsy” and then rapidly topple like a “House of Cards”.

The catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) or catastrophic anthropogenic climate change (CACC) science is in many ways similar to a pyramid scheme. It is based on a small body of evidence which is used to support a growing collection of estimates used to concoct an even more rapidly growing collection of projections of future catastrophes. These projected future catastrophes are based on the outputs of unverified climate models built upon hindcast comparisons to “adjusted” temperature measurements and fed with uncertain climate sensitivities, forcings and feedbacks.

The structural pyramid converges to a point at its top upon completion. The pyramid scheme diverges from a point at its base to a broad but undefined top prior to its collapse. The weakness of the base of CAGW / CACC science is illustrated by the numerous failed short-term predictions based on that science. The predictions of an ice-free Arctic and of the end of snow are classic examples.

The consensed climate science community has shifted its efforts toward longer term projections which would likely not be falsifiable in their lifetimes. These longer term projections include more frequent and more intense tropical cyclones, tornadoes, droughts and floods, more extreme temperatures, melting glaciers and Arctic and Antarctic ice caps, coastal and island inundation, crop failures and even the end of human civilization.

These long-term extreme projections become the basis for demands to end human fossil fuel use, eliminate animal husbandry, institute global governance with massive redistribution of wealth and income and control and reduce global population. The actions would require investments of tens of trillions of dollars combined with massive personal and economic turmoil.

It is amazing to contemplate that these extreme projections and planned massive dislocations are built upon a very narrow knowledge base combined with an ever-expanding series of estimates of climate sensitivity, climate feedbacks, Representative Concentration Pathways, fed into an ensemble of unverified climate models, most of which have been effectively falsified by the actual climate observations over the most recent climate period.

It is not too late in the political process to begin efforts to expand the scientific knowledge base upon which the CAGW / CACC meme is based, while reducing the magnitude of the overhanging mass of estimates, unverified climate models and hypothetical “scary scenarios” and replacing them with information more reliably supported by the expanded scientific knowledge base.

• From: Climatism
• By: Jamie Spry
• December 19, 2018

DRACONIAN UN CLIMATE AGENDA EXPOSED : ‘Global Warming Fears Are A Tool For Political and Economic Change…It Has Nothing To Do With The Actual Climate’

“This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years since the Industrial Revolution.”– Christiana Figueres (UN Climate Chief Says Communism Is Best To Fight Global Warming)

“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.“
– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

DRACONIAN UN CLIMATE AGENDA EXPOSED : ‘Global Warming Fears Are A Tool For Political and Economic Change…It Has Nothing To Do With The Actual Climate’

The United States has still not terminated its participation in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as required by current US law, as the result of the UNFCCC granting state-level recognition to the Palestinian Authority. This action would also hasten the official US withdrawal from the Paris Accords.         

The US announced that it would make no further contributions to the UN Green Climate Fund (GCF). Most other nations are not meeting their commitments to the Fund. The GCF is struggling to justify its existing project funding commitments while seeking additional funding for projects currently proposed.           

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued its Special Report (SR15) on the challenges of limiting the increase in global temperature anomalies from exceeding 1.5°C. The US has not officially reacted to the new report, which was prepared in anticipation of Conference of the Parties (COP) 24 in Katowice, Poland. The IPCC continues to ignore research which does not support the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming narrative.            

The Administration has not formally begun an effort to vacate the 2009 EPA Endangerment Finding, though it is becoming increasingly obvious that the Endangerment Finding was based on incomplete and faulty data.       

US EPA has proposed the Affordable Clean Energy Plan as a replacement for the Clean Power Plan, which has been stayed by the US Supreme Court. The proposed plan would provide additional flexibility for the operators of existing coal-fueled electric generating facilities and for the construction of new coal facilities.       

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and US EPA have proposed the Safer Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE) Vehicle Rules to replace the much stricter CAFÉ standards put in place by the Obama Administration.      

US EPA has proposed terminating the use of “Secret Science” in developing and supporting proposed rulemaking. There has been significant pushback from scientists, mostly expressing concern with divulging personal information about study participants. However, there is no question that such personal data could be withheld, while still permitting the study design, conduct and analysis to be scrutinized.  

US EPA has substantially revised participation in its Science Advisory Board, eliminating members who also performed contract research and consulting services for the Agency, which was clearly a potential / actual conflict of interest. EPA has also increased the participation of industry scientists in the Board.            

The Administration has revised the estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), though the issue of the benefits of higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations has yet to be addressed as part of the revision process. The largest impact on the SCC was the application of more typical discount factors in the calculation of future costs.

Elements of the consensed climate science community have begun to acknowledge the limitations of the existing near-surface temperature anomaly data; and, they have recommended establishment of a “global land surface climate fiducial reference measurements network”, similar to the US Climate Reference Network This network would provide accurate global near-surface temperature measurements, eliminating the “need” for repeated data “adjustment” and “reanalysis”.

Elements of the consensed climate science community have acknowledged that the existing ensemble of climate models is “running hot”, significantly over-projecting temperature anomaly increases. This issue is apparently driven by high climate sensitivity estimates, uncertain forcing and feedback estimates and unrepresentative Representative Concentration Pathways.            

Recent research continues to suggest climate sensitivity at or below the low end of the sensitivity estimates used by the IPCC. Lower sensitivity, combined with the logarithmic nature of the effect of additional atmospheric CO2 concentrations, would lead to smaller future increases in global temperature anomalies.   

The temperature anomaly trend has continued to decline in the wake of the 2015/2016 super El Nino, further increasing the disparity between the temperature anomaly observations and the modeled projections.   

Examination of extreme weather trends reveals that major US landfalling hurricanes and US tornado activity have declined, global drought severity shows no significant trend, and the climate science community has little confidence that climate change is driving extreme weather. 

NASA has documented the occurrence of global greening, largely as the result of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This greening has impacts on the growth of all types of plants, including the common food crops, increasing crop yields and food security.         

Regardless of the US decision to withdraw from the Paris Accords, US CO2 emissions continue to decline, though not as rapidly as they would have had to decrease under the terms of the Accords.

The situations discussed above suggest continued progress on climate change issues in 2018. However, as indicated above, much remains to be done.

From: Quillette

By: Joanna Szurmak and Pierre Desrochers

The One-sided Worldview of Eco-Pessimists

This essay draws in part on the authors’ new book Population Bombed! Exploding the Link Between Overpopulation and Climate Change (Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2018).

The One-sided Worldview of Eco-Pessimists

An open memo to key organizations skeptical of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change.

To:    American Enterprise Institute

American Legislative Exchange Council

Cato Institute

Competitive Enterprise Institute

Heartland Institute

Heritage Foundation

Manhattan Institute for Policy Research

From: The Mark H. Berens Family Charitable Foundation (https://www.therightinsight.org/)

Subject: Federal Government Climate Study Funding

Federal funding of research to advance our understanding of the earth’s climate and the factors which affect it is both reasonable and necessary.

Regrettably, much of recent federal funding related to climate has been directed toward studies which use flawed climate data, unverified climate models and unrealistic Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to produce “scary scenarios” of potential future climate catastrophes. Arguably, such studies contribute nothing to advancing our understanding of the climate. Rather, they are intended solely or primarily to attempt to convince the citizenry to accept the climate science ”consensus” and the actions urged by the consensed climate science community, climate change activists in federal departments and agencies, environmental activist groups, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change; and, to provide material to the media to assist in that effort.

We find it difficult to believe that the US Congress authorized and appropriated these funds with the knowledge or intent that they would be used for purposes other than the advancement of the science. Furthermore, we find it difficult to believe that the federal departments and agencies contracting for these studies do not know that these studies are based on flawed data, unverified models, uncertain fundamental inputs and unrealistic RCPs.

Under federal appropriation and budgetary rules, the government is not authorized to purchase valueless services. While those contracting for these services directly might believe that they have value, that value is clearly more as propaganda than as science.

These concerns would appear to justify a specific and detailed Freedom of Information Act demand that the Federal government produce documents underlying its climate policies, climate change research priorities and climate change expenditures.

The resulting information might well become the focus of a class action lawsuit on behalf of all US taxpayers. Such a suit might have significant educational value for US taxpayers, as it would expose government efforts to incite citizen acquiescence and action based on uncertain and flawed science, as opposed to government efforts to expand understanding of the science.

Recent acknowledgements by members of the consensed climate science community regarding the shortcomings of the current near-surface temperature anomaly products and that the current ensemble of climate models are “running hot” reinforce the uncertainties and flaws in the science underlying these “scary scenarios”.

We urge your organizations to form a consortium to prepare and file such a Freedom of Information Act demand to provide a potential basis for a class action lawsuit on behalf of US taxpayers.

From: Watts Up With That?

By Andy May

An Assessment of the 4th National Climate Assessment

The U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) Volume II is out and generating a lot of discussion. Volume II, Impacts Risks and Adaptation in the United States to climate change can be downloaded here (Reidmiller, et al. 2018). Volume I, published last year, on the physical science behind the assessment is here (Wuebbles, et al. 2017).

The mainstream media (MSM) is breathlessly reporting about it using the following template or something similar:

“[Volume II] of the Fourth National Climate Assessment shows how [America/city/state/poor/people of color/old people/young people, etc.] are already feeling the effects of climate change from [wildfires/droughts/floods/disease/hurricanes/etc.].

An Assessment of the 4th National Climate Assessment

The Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) recognizes the existence of an implied warranty of fitness for particular purpose in commercial sales contracts, which it defines as follows:

            § 2-315. Implied Warranty: Fitness for Particular Purpose.

Where the seller at the time of contracting has reason to know any particular purpose for which the goods are required and that the buyer is relying on the seller's skill or judgment to select or furnish suitable goods, there is unless excluded or modified under the next section an implied warranty that the goods shall be fit for such purpose.

The UCC does not apply to Federal government contracting, since the ultimate buyer is the citizens of the government, represented by the citizens’ elected representatives. Those elected representatives authorize and appropriate funding for all the functions of government. Those funds are then committed by the direct buyer (executive branch departments and agencies) to fund contracts with other government agencies and with outside organizations and individuals.

The conceptual framework of “fitness for particular purpose” can be used to analyze government contracting, either with outside entities or with other government agencies. The seller (outside contractor or government researcher) has reason to know the particular purpose for which the good (research) is being contracted, most frequently from the Request for Proposals (RFP) prepared by the buyer. The buyer (government department or agency) relies on the seller to furnish suitable goods (research results), frequently under the oversight of a buyer’s contracting officer.

Applying this concept to climate change research conducted with government funding, it is critical that both parties understand the particular purpose for which the research is required. Ideally, this particular purpose should be to advance the understanding of the science behind climate change, the various factors which contribute to climate change, the impact of each of those factors on climate change and the extent to which each of those factors could be and should be controlled, since this is the “particular purpose” for which the funds were authorized and appropriated. Advancing this particular purpose optimally requires a broad focus on all of the relevant factors and careful data collection and analysis.

Regrettably, this does not appear to be the particular purpose of current government funded climate change research. The sole focus on CO2 by both the US government agencies and the IPCC and the exclusion of research on other factors including natural variability, solar impacts, etc. suggests that the particular purpose is not the ideal purpose described above. The government is not authorized to purchase valueless services under its appropriation and budgetary rules, which calls into question the ongoing funding of “scary scenario” studies based on unverified models reinforces this assessment. The continued collection of flawed data which is then “adjusted” also reinforces the assessment.

What then is the particular purpose for which the buyers are contracting with sellers?

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”

H. L. Mencken

Could it be that the particular purpose of much of current government funded climate change research is to alarm the populace and cause it to seek to have the government lead it to the “safety” of a carbon and meat free global economy with socialist global governance? The willingness of government and the IPCC to rely on flawed data and unverified models while focusing on creating “scary scenarios” using the flawed RCP 8.5 and encouraging the media to communicate the “scary scenarios” loudly and broadly would suggest that this might well be the case.

The substantial funds already expended on studies which contribute nothing to the advancement of the science could form the legal basis for a class action lawsuit on behalf of US taxpayers for budgetary waste. Such a lawsuit, by an organization such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute, could result in discovery of some very interesting and potentially damning information regarding the motivations of the involved federal departments and agencies.

Fortunately, the growing gap between the “adjusted” observations and the CMIP5 models has become so obvious that elements of the consensed climate science community have acknowledged the shortcomings of the data and models and made suggestions for resolving the issues. However, it remains to be seen whether this acknowledgement leads back to a broad focus on the underlying science, a more open approach to considering research which questions the consensus narrative and a more rigorous data collection and analysis effort. Ultimately, that determination will be based on the particular purpose of the buyer (government department or agency).