From: The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)

By: Ole Humlum

Date: April 2023

The State of the Climate 2022

General summary

This report has its focus on observations, and not on output from numerical models, with a few exceptions (e.g. Figure 38). References and data sources are listed at the end of the report.

Air temperatures

Average air temperatures measured near the planet’s surface (surface air temperatures), or rather their deviation from the average calculated for a chosen reference period, are central to many climate deliberations. However, the significance of any short-term warming or cooling recorded in these datasets should not be overstated. Firstly, focusing on averages tends to hide the fact that we all deal with much larger temperature variations on a daily basis. Secondly, whenever Earth experiences warm El Niño or cold La Niña episodes, major heat exchanges take place between the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above, eventually showing up as a signal in the global air temperature. However, these do not reflect similar changes in the total heat content of the atmosphere-ocean system. In fact, the global net changes involved may be small; such heat exchanges may chiefly reflect redistribution of energy between ocean and atmosphere. Evaluating the dynamics of ocean temperatures is therefore equally as important as evaluating changes in surface air temperatures.

Relative to the whole period since 1850/1880, 2022 was warm, but cooler than most years since 2016. A moderate La Niña episode played out during the year, underlining the importance of ocean-atmosphere exchanges.

Many Arctic regions experienced record high air temperatures in 2016, but since then, including in 2022, conditions generally have turned somewhat cooler. The Arctic temperature peak in 2016 may have been affected by ocean heat, released from the Pacific Ocean during the strong 2015–16 El Niño and subsequently transported towards the Arctic. This underscores how Arctic air temperatures may be affected, not only by variations in local conditions, but also by variations playing out in geographically remote regions.

Many diagrams in this report focus on the time from 1979 onwards, reflecting the start of the satellite era, and the advent of a wide range of observations with nearly global coverage, including temperature. These data give a detailed view of temperature changes over time at different altitudes in the atmosphere. Among other phenomena, they reveal that a Stratospheric temperature plateau has prevailed since 1995.

Since 1979, temperatures in the lower Troposphere have increased over both land and oceans, but most clearly over land. The most straightforward explanation for this observation is that much of the warming is caused by solar insolation, but there may well be several supplementary reasons, such as differences in heat capacity and changes in cloud cover and land use.

Oceans

The Argo program has now achieved 19 years of global coverage, growing from a relatively sparse array of 1000 profiling floats in 2004, to more than 3900 in December 2021. Since their inception, these have provided a unique ocean temperature dataset for depths down to 1900 m. The data is currently updated to August 2020. Although the oceans are much deeper than 1900 m, and the dataset is still relatively short, interesting features are now emerging from these observations. (continue reading)

The State of the Climate 2022

The US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration chart below is arguably accurate but inarguably misleading.

The capacity factors shown for both wind and solar, while they are the actual percentage of rating plate capacity delivered to the grid in 2020, are also approximately equal to the limiting capacity factors of the generators as installed, since the output of both wind and solar generation have priority access to the grid.

The nuclear generation capacity factor shown above is the rating plate capacity of the nuclear generators less an allowance for downtime for maintenance and refueling. Otherwise, nuclear generators typically operate base loaded at rating plate capacity because of their low operating costs.

Geothermal generation provides a constant source of energy as required and is typically dispatched when available, with a downtime allowance of approximately 25% for maintenance and repair.

Hydroelectric generation capacity factor is largely dependent on water availability behind the dams as well as water demand downstream of the dams. A portion of the hydroelectric generation capacity is reliable, while the remainder is “source of opportunity” capacity based on water availability.

Coal and natural gas generators are typically operated in load-following mode, providing the difference between renewable and nuclear generation output and grid demand. They also typically represent the utilities’ capacity reserve margin on peak, available in the event of a failure of the utilities’ largest single generation resource. The capacity factors shown in the chart above are the actual percentage of rating plate capacity delivered to the grid in 2020. However, those generators have real capacity factors of approximately 85% for coal generation and 90% for natural gas combined cycle generation.

Of the generation sources shown in the graphic, only wind and solar are not dispatchable. Their availability is dependent upon wind and sun conditions. When they are available, they displace the output of dispatchable generators. However, the capacity of the dispatchable generators must still remain available to meet grid demand during periods of low/no wind and solar availability.

As the fraction of wind and solar generation increases, the percentage utilization of the generating capacity of coal and natural gas generators would decline, to the extent the decline is not offset by increasing grid demand or the permanent closure of these generators as a function of age, operating cost or government edict. Grid demand is expected to increase at a more rapid pace, driven by the Administration’s focus on “all-electric everything”, which would ultimately approximately triple grid demand by 2050.

The assumption is that increasing grid demand would be served by increased wind and solar generation. However, the intermittency of these generators means they would continue to require support during periods of low/no wind and solar availability. This support is now provided primarily by dispatchable fossil-fueled generators, but might also be provided by electricity storage capacity in the form of batteries or pumped storage. These storage resources would have to be in place and operating before the scheduled closure of the remaining coal generating capacity in 2030 and the remaining natural gas generating capacity by 2035.

From: Institute for Energy Research

By: Thomas Whackman

Date: April 2023

Energy Security is National Security

Introduction

Energy security is national security. One cannot exist without the other, and a lack of either can have serious ramifications. For evidence of this, look no further than Europe, where Germany is reeling from the twin blows of ill-conceived domestic energy policies and wholesale energy dependence on its chief geopolitical adversary: Russia.

The German case is but one example of the many pitfalls a nation faces when it fails to secure its energy supply. American policymakers would do well to take this cautionary tale to heart – and soon – as the Biden administration’s plans to force a complete energy transition away from fossil fuels may lead America down the long and painful road of energy dependency.

Due in large part to government intervention, the United States is becoming progressively more reliant on electric vehicles (EVs) and nonnuclear renewable energy sources for its transportation and energy needs. These technologies rely on a large input of rare earth metals and other mined elements, particularly lithium and cobalt, the supply of which is dominated almost entirely by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). These same minerals are also key inputs in the production of many advanced weapons systems, like fighter jets and ballistic missile defenses, that are critical for a robust national defense.

This, along with the current administration’s ongoing war against domestic hydrocarbon production, puts America’s energy security, and its national security, in real jeopardy. It is therefore incumbent to unpack just what energy security means, its relationship to national security, what that means for the United States, and the consequences that can occur when leaders attempt to ignore the fundamental physical realities that create the context in which statecraft resides. (continue reading)

Energy Security is National Security

Consensus: general agreement, the judgement arrived at by most of those concerned, group solidarity in sentiment and belief (Source: Merriam-Webster)

Science: knowledge or a system of knowledge covering general truths or the operation of general laws especially as obtained and tested through scientific method, such knowledge or such a system of knowledge concerned with the physical world and its phenomena, the state of knowing : knowledge as distinguished from ignorance or misunderstanding (Source: Merriam-Webster)

One of the most frequently cited memes regarding climate science is that: “97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming.“ This meme originated with skepticalscience.com, but has been repeated in slightly different form by several other sources. Some have even suggested that humans are totally responsible for global warming. This meme clearly meets the definitions of consensus, though it also meets some aspects of science.

Global warming has certainly been occurring since the late 1800s, as measured by near-surface temperature measurements and satellite observations (since 1979), as well as indicated by a variety of paleoclimatic proxies. The paleoclimatic proxies indicate that both global warming and global cooling have occurred numerous times during the past ~4500 years, as shown in the graph below.

The potential for human influence on climate was hardly considered until the 20th century. The various warming and cooling cycles shown in the graph above, prior to the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA), are assumed to be the results of natural climate variations. However, the “scientific consensus” is that humans are causing the global warming since the end of the LIA, and especially since the middle of the 20th century, at least in part. However, there is no scientific evidence that natural variation in the earth’s climate has ceased or even substantially diminished.

There is scientific evidence that certain human activities can influence warming and cooling of the climate, including emissions of so called greenhouse gases (GHGs), emissions of aerosols and land use changes which affect the earth’s albedo. The magnitude of these human activities can be measured with reasonable accuracy, but the effects of these human activities on global temperatures can only be estimated.

There is a less pervasive consensus that CO2 emissions are the primary driver of the recent warming, although there is no scientific proof that is the case. Those who are part of that consensus believe that human CO2 emissions must be radically reduced or eliminated to avoid runaway future warming or some undefined “tipping point” leading to a climate crisis. This has led to a limited but vocal political consensus that global CO2 emissions must be reduced to Net Zero by 2050. This political consensus is not supported by the science, or by the governments of many developing nations.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) has developed a consensus estimated range of the sensitivity of global warming to atmospheric CO2 concentrations, although it has recently acknowledged that the higher end of the range of sensitivity estimates is less likely to be correct. The IPCC ensemble of climate models projects a broad range of possible future global temperature trajectories, though there is no consensus regarding which, if any, of those models is accurate.

With regard to global warming, the consensus appears to be stronger than the science.

From: Watts Up With That

By: Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Date: April 3, 2023

The New Pause lengthens to 8 years 9 months

The New Pause has lengthened to 8 years 9 months. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the UAH monthly satellite global-temperature dataset shows no global warming from July 2015 to March 2023. As usual, this site is just about the only place where this continuing failure of global temperatures to do as they are told is reported.

The start and end dates of the New Pause are not cherry-picked. The end date is the present; the start date is the farthest back one can reach and still find a zero trend. It is what it is.

For comparison, here is the entire dataset for 44 years 4 months since December 1978. It shows a less than terrifying long-run warming rate equivalent to 1.3 degrees/century, of which 0.3 K has already occurred since January 2021, leaving just 1 K to go (on the current trend) until 2100, by which time reserves of coal, oil and gas will be largely exhausted. (continue reading)

The New Pause lengthens to 8 years 9 months

anomalous: inconsistent with or deviating from what is usual, normal, or expected

anomalies: deviations from the common rule

Global warming is monitored by estimating successive global average temperature anomalies  (“deviations from the common rule”) from the global average temperature over a historical climatology period. The temperature anomalies calculated by various government and non-government agencies are not directly comparable because the agencies use different climatology reference periods. However, there is general agreement that the global climate has warmed by 1.0+/- 0.2°C over the most recent century. The graph below is a typical presentation of global average temperature increase over time.

Note that the “Y” axis of the graph is truncated to a range of 2°C rather than the full range of temperatures experienced over the earth over the base time period, which range from -89.2°C (-128.6°F) to 56.7°C (134.1°F).

I have previously used Wichita, Kansas to provide an anomalous perspective on global warming (here), (here) and (here). Wichita, Kansas is located very close to the geographic center of the contiguous United States. The annual average temperature in Wichita is approximately 57°F (13.9°C), which is also the current global average near-surface temperature.

The graph below originated on the Powerline blog and has been modified here with the addition of the red and blue bands representing the average diurnal temperature ranges for the peak summer month (July, red) and peak winter month (January, blue) in Wichita. This allows comparison of the global average annual temperature change over the period from 1880 through 2015 (~1.6°F), the orange line on the graph, with the average diurnal and peak seasonal temperature changes in Wichita. (Note that the chart temperature range is from -10°F to +110°F, slightly lower than the -22°F to +114°F record temperature range for Wichita over the same period.)

The local temperature anomaly in Wichita has ranged from approximately +57°F (+31.6°C) to approximately -79°F (-43.8°C) over the base period from 1880 to present. The local diurnal temperature anomaly in Wichita is approximately 20°F (11.1°C), as shown above, for both the peak summer month (July) and the peak winter month (January). The local peak seasonal average temperature anomaly is approximately 50°F (27.7°C).

This graph puts the global annual average temperature anomaly in a very different perspective from the NOAA graph which preceded it. The global annual temperature anomaly over the 140+ year base period is slightly more than 1% of the local peak temperature anomaly in Wichita over the period.

The graph below shows the satellite temperature record for the period 1979- January 2023, relative to the 30-year climatology period 1991-2020, reported by Dr. Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama Huntsville. UAH reports warming of +0.13°C per decade, or approximately 0.57°C since 1979. However, the monthly temperature anomalies over the period have ranged from approximately -0.68°C to +0.70°C, or more than twice the average anomaly.

The monthly satellite lower troposphere temperature anomaly for the contiguous United States varied from +0.88°C to – 0.51°C over calendar year 2022, a range of 1.39°C, or approximately 1.7 times the global annual average temperature anomaly over the 140+ year base period shown in the NOAA graph above.
Against this background, a cumulative temperature anomaly of 1.0 +/- 0.2°C over a 140+ year period does not seem particularly significant, nor does a projected future anomaly increase of 0.5°C-1.0°C.

Electricity demand fluctuates continuously, over a range of 2.5-3 to one. Electric utility operators control the output of numerous generation resources over their acceptable range of operation to match the contemporaneous demand of the grid. Current grid generation resources include nuclear, natural gas, coal, hydroelectric, geothermal, biomass, wind and solar. With the exception of wind and solar, these generation resources are dispatchable, meaning that they can be brought into service, as required, to meet grid demand. Wind and solar availability are controlled by time of day and weather conditions. Regulation typically requires that their output be used whenever available in preference to other resources and that the output of other generating resources be adjusted to accommodate their output.

Electric utilities will continue to require the ability to dispatch generating resources as required to match grid demand as the electricity generating fleet transitions from primarily fossil fueled generation to predominantly intermittent renewable generation. Nuclear generation is typically base loaded, while hydro, geothermal and biomass generation can be modulated to follow load. However, these generation sources would represent less than 10% of the generation required to meet peak demand in the “All-Electric Everything” future beyond 2050. Therefore, wind and solar generation must be rendered dispatchable to maintain grid reliability and stability.

Current US wind generation has capacity factors ranging from approximately 24-46%, with the lower capacity factors in July, August and September. Therefore, 1 GW of dispatchable wind capacity would require up to 4 GW of wind generator rating plate capacity, plus storage capacity of approximately 3 GW to store electricity for use during the periods of low capacity. Additional storage capacity would be required to compensate for daily generation fluctuations around the monthly average. Additional storage capacity would also be required to provide dispatchable output through days of low/no wind generation availability.

Current US solar generation has capacity factors ranging from approximately 17-33%, with lower capacity factors in November, December, January and February. Therefore, 1 GW of dispatchable solar capacity would require up to 6 GW of solar generator rating plate capacity, plus storage capacity of approximately 5 GW to store electricity for use at night and during periods of low capacity. Additional storage capacity would be required to compensate for daily generation fluctuations around the monthly average. Additional storage capacity would also be required to provide dispatchable output through days of low/no solar availability.

The Administration’s goal would result in a grid in which approximately 90% of the electricity generated would be generated by intermittent renewable generation, supplemented by nuclear, hydro geothermal and biomass generation. The rating plate capacity of the intermittent renewable generators would be 4-6 times the expected average capacity and the intermittent renewable generation capacity would require at least equal rating plate storage capacity and perhaps several times that capacity, depending on the number of consecutive days of low/no generation which might be experienced.

Such a system would require a significant factor of safety in its design, since if storage were discharged during a generation outage, recovery would be a long term process.

From: National Review

By: Bjorn Lomborg

Date: March 30, 2023

Life after Climate Change

Better than you think

The global discussion about climate change has become quite hysterical. Some 60 percent of people living in the rich world think it is likely to bring an end to humanity. This is not only untrue; it is also harmful, because fear makes people embrace bad policies and ignore many other urgent challenges facing the world. Consider, for example, how the World Health Organization declared climate change the defining public-health issue of the 21st century in 2014, but perhaps should have been more focused on pandemics, like Covid. Or take the World Economic Forum participants who in January 2020 found the greatest policy risk of the next ten years to be climate-action failure — ignoring the rapid spread of Covid. Or consider how development institutions increasingly focus on helping poor countries with climate-change responses, often at the expense of other things those countries urgently need, such as growth and development, stronger health-care systems, better education, and a more plentiful energy supply.

Climate change is a real and man-made phenomenon, and it will have negative impacts overall. That’s a fact, and it is one that we hear a lot. The “catastrophe narrative,” however, is drowning out many other relevant facts about climate change — for example, that 98 percent fewer people are dying from climate-related disasters today than did a century ago, and that net-zero-emission policies are eye-wateringly costly. The following are eight charts that I think more people should see, to understand that the climate-change data are very different from what we hear in the commonplace narrative. (continue reading)

Life after Climate Change

The US Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022 does not reflect the Administration’s Net Zero by 2050 goal, as shown in the graph below. It also does not reflect the Administration’s “All-Electric Everything” by 2050 goal.

The Net Zero goal would require that both coal and natural gas be replaced as electricity generation fuels, coal by 2030 and natural gas by 2035. The “All-Electric Everything” goal would require increasing US electricity generation from approximately 5,400 billion kilowatthours to approximately 17,000 billion kilowatthours, to replace the current end uses of coal, oil and natural gas with renewable generated electricity and possibly some nuclear generated electricity.  A rough approximation of the transition over the period 2021-2050 is shown in the graph below.

The electricity generation in 2050 would average approximately 2 billion kilowatthours per hour, but the peak hourly generation requirement would be approximately 5 billion kilowatthours per hour. The EIA AEO 2022 estimates that the renewable generation in 2050 would be approximately 60% solar and 40% wind, which is a significant shift from the 2021 ratio of 70% wind to 30% solar.

Current utility renewable generation capacities vary seasonally, with wind experiencing a capacity factor range of approximately 24 - 43% and solar a capacity factor range of approximately 18 - 33%. Therefore, based on the EIA projection of a 60% solar, 40% wind share of intermittent renewable generation, the average capacity factor of the solar and wind generator fleet would be approximately 28%. Therefore, generation of 17,000 billion kilowatthours annually would require intermittent renewable generating capacity of approximately 7 billion kilowatts. However, peak hour generation of approximately 5 billion kilowatthours per hour would require approximately 18 billion kilowatts of generation, or a combination of generation and long-duration storage. Storage or generation oversizing would be essential since solar experiences its minimum capacity factor during the winter peak period, while wind experiences its minimum capacity factor during the summer peak.

Solar generating capacity of approximately 11 billion kilowatts at 0.3 kilowatts per panel would require installation of approximately 35 billion solar panels over an area of 17 million acres, or 27,000 square miles. This area is slightly larger than the state of West Virginia. Wind generation capacity of approximately 7 billion kilowatts would require installation of approximately 3 million 2.5 MW onshore wind turbines, or some combination of onshore and offshore wind turbines. The administration has a goal of installing 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, which would represent approximately 0.4% of the projected 2050 wind generation fleet capacity requirement.

The US currently has approximately 136 GW of solar capacity and 140 GW of wind capacity installed, or approximately 1.5% of the generating capacity required to meet peak demand in the “all-electric everything” scenario. The bulk of this existing capacity has been installed over the past 30 years with the assistance of generous federal and state incentives. Installing the remaining approximately 98.5% of the required capacity over the next 28 years appears to be a daunting task.

From: Climate Change Dispatch

By: Don W. Crockett

Date: March 14, 2023

The Global Warming Doomsday Religion Is A Suicide Pact To Wreck Our Economy

There is no scientific evidence that the minuscule 0.01% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) since 1780 has had any effect on the Earth’s average temperature.

Nonetheless, in the 1980s, a religious/political movement against man-made or anthropogenic CO2 arose.

It was driven by catastrophic predictions from a gaggle of impenetrable and undecipherable computer climate models operated by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and quickly metastasized into a worldwide mass movement with all the fervor of a new evangelical religion.

As Eric Hoffer observes in his book, The True Believer, “Mass movements can rise and spread without belief in God, but never without belief in a devil.”

In this new “doomsday” mass movement, millions of people truly believe that man-made CO2 is a modern-day devil that will cause glaciers to melt, seas to rise, and coastlines to submerge. They also believe that mankind can, and must, save the planet from this catastrophe by reducing emissions of the devil CO2 to net zero.

Those who don’t believe are labeled “climate deniers,” a derogatory reference to those who deny that the Nazis perpetrated the Holocaust.

Unfortunately, most politicians in the U.S., Canada, and Europe, as well as the press and heads of many large corporations have blindly joined this Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) religion to stamp out the CO2 devil.

These true believers will not accept any challenge to their deeply held religious beliefs which are supported by nothing more than emanations from the IPCC’s inscrutable climate models. Their minds are closed.

CO2 is a devil that must be vanquished and our country, therefore, must reduce its CO2 emissions to net zero or we will all perish. Most non-believers dare not directly challenge the false claim that man-made C02 is the sole cause of our current warming period. (continue reading)

The Global Warming Doomsday Religion Is A Suicide Pact To Wreck Our Economy

The Biden Administration has set a goal of achieving Net Zero US annual CO2 emissions by 2050. To accomplish this goal, the Administration has decreed that all coal-fired electric generation would cease by 2030; and, that all natural gas fueled electric generation would cease by 2035. The Administration has also decreed that all new vehicles sold in the US after 2035 would be electric vehicles. There is also an effort underway to end the use of natural gas for applications other than electric generation, including virtually all residential, commercial and industrial end uses. Incentives have been put in place for EVs and electric appliances and equipment, as well as for wind and solar generation and electricity storage.

Achieving the Administration’s goals would result in a US energy economy based solely on electricity, generated by a mixture of renewable generation sources including hydro, biomass, geothermal, wind, solar and possibly some nuclear generation.

However, the US Energy Information Administration, an agency of the US Department of Energy, in its Annual energy Outlook 2022 (AEO  2022) projects a very different US energy future, as shown in the graphs below.

EIA projects that US electricity generation will increase by approximately 32% through 2050, or approximately 1% per year. Natural gas electricity generation would increase to approximately 1,800 billion kilowatthours, or by approximately 20%. Coal generation would decrease to approximately 530 billion kilowatt hours. Renewable generation would increase to approximately 2,400 billion kilowatthours, or nearly 500%.

Virtually all the growth in renewable generation would consist of wind and solar. Wind generation would increase from approximately 344 to approximately 750 billion kilowatthours, though its share of generation would decrease from 43% of renewable generation to approximately 31%. Solar generation would increase from approximately 450 billion kilowatthours to approximately 1,200 billion kilowatthours and its share of renewable generation would increase to approximately 51%. EIA projects virtually no growth for geothermal, hydroelectric and biomass generation.

These EIA projections are fundamentally inconsistent with the Administration’s goals of Net Zero CO2 emissions and an all-electric energy economy by 2050. Coal generation decreases, but not to zero. Natural gas generation increases, rather than decreasing to zero. The projected 1% per year growth in US electricity production is consistent with historical electricity demand growth, driven by increasing population and GDP, but not with a major transition to an all-electric energy economy.

EIA’s projections regarding natural gas show an approximate 20% increase in consumption in the Reference case, and approximately 50% in the High Supply case, as shown in the graphs below.

The EIA projections do not contemplate the effects of the Administration’s push for all-electric everything, which would require expansion of electricity generation from the projected 5,400 billion kilowatthours in 2050 to approximately 17,000 billion kilowatthours. Growth of this magnitude would require not only increases in generation, but also massive increases in and expansion of transmission infrastructure and major upgrades to existing distribution infrastructure to accommodate the increases in individual customer demand and consumption.

From: Climate Etc.

By: Michael J. Kelly

Date: March 4, 2023

Feasibility for achieving a net zero economy for the U.S. by 2050

I imagine that I have been appointed the first CEO of a new agency set up by the Federal Government of the United States of America with the explicit goal of actually delivering a Net Zero CO2 Emissions Economy by 2050. My first task is to scope the project and to estimate the assets required to succeed. This is the result of that exercise, and includes a discussion of some consequences that flow from the scale and timescale for meeting the target.

Executive summary

The cost to 2050 will comfortably exceed $12T (trillion) for electrification projects and $35T for improving the energy efficiency of buildings, a work-force comparable in size to the health sector will be required for 30 years, including a doubling of the present number of electrical engineers, and the bill of specialist materials is of a size that for the USA alone is several times the global annual production of many key minerals. On the manpower front one will have to rely on the domestic workforce, as everywhere else in the world is working towards the same target. If they were not so working, the value of the USA-specific target is moot. The scale of this project suggests that a war footing and a command economy will be essential, as major cuts to other favoured forms of expenditure, such as health, education and defence, will be needed. Without a detailed roadmap, as exemplified by the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors that drove the electronics revolution after 1980, the target is simply unattainable. (continue reading)

Feasibility for achieving a net zero economy for the U.S. by 2050

The past two years have provided unpleasant lessons for several electric utilities and their customers. The challenge remains for those utilities and the utility industry to learn from those lessons and take actions to prevent their recurrence. Because of the nature of the electric utility industry, these lessons must also be learned by state and federal utility regulators who largely control the utilities' actions.

California utilities are dealing with aggressive state efforts to transition the state utility grid from fossil and nuclear generation to wind and solar generation with energy storage. However, the state has pushed for rapid shutdown of natural gas and nuclear generators before storage was available to replace the output of those generators during periods when wind and/or solar generator output was reduced. The result has been insufficient conventional capacity to replace the output of wind and solar generators, particularly during periods of peak demand.

Texas utilities experienced a very cold period in early 2022. The cold caused freezing of water in gas lines supplying gas turbine generators, freezing of coal piles at coal generating stations and icing on the blades of a significant portion of the state’s wind generation capacity. The combination of these effects resulted in a significant grid failure which took several days to resolve. The issues with the gas and coal plants are relatively easily resolvable with improved maintenance and insulation, but preventing icing of the wind turbine blades would require a major refitting with blades which could be heated.

The US Southeast experienced extremely cold weather on Christmas Eve, 2022. Duke Power in North Carolina was forced to institute rolling blackouts to keep the grid from failure. The shortage of generating capacity was the result of control failures at two natural gas plants and one coal plant, aggravated by the fact that the coldest period occurred in the very early morning, before sunrise, so no solar generator output was available. Again, the issues at the fossil fuel plants are relatively easily resolvable. However, dealing with the solar issue would require significant storage. Duke’s problem was exacerbated by the failure of neighboring utilities to provide power for which Duke had contracted, since those utilities were also affected by the extreme cold.

TVA also experienced problems during that very cold period with both coal and natural gas generators. TVA experienced demand approximately 35% higher than on a typical winter day, its highest demand ever. This forced rolling blackouts by some of the utilities TVA serves at wholesale. Again, the issues with the fossil fuel plants are relatively easily resolvable with improved maintenance and insulation.

Each of these situations highlights the necessity for high level maintenance of utility infrastructure, particularly during periods of expected peak demand. The California, Texas and North Carolina experiences also highlight the importance of backup generation during periods of low/no wind and solar generation availability. As intermittent renewable generation capacity increases, it will be necessary to develop new contract arrangements to assure that natural gas is available in sufficient quantities for the natural gas generators.

From: Master Resource

By: Bill Schneider

Date: March 1, 2023

Reliable vs. Intermittent Generation: A Primer

Part 1     ---     Part 2

“Why should a thermal plant spend money in a government-rigged market that threatens a reasonable profit? Why should the plant even remain in the market under these conditions?”

“For IVREs it’s a no-risk deal, with markets guaranteed and taxpayers country-wide adding profits. But what about the need for reliable power?”

This two-part post (Part II here) is a follow-up to Robert Bradley’s recent IER article, “Wind, Solar, and the Great Texas Blackout: Guilty as Charged.” His article discussed how regulatory shifts and subsidies favoring Intermittently Variable Renewable Energy (IVRE) producers resulted in prematurely lost capacity, a lack of new capacity, and upgrade issues with remaining (surviving) traditional capacity. These three factors–“the why behind the why”–explain the perfect storm that began with (or was revealed by) Storm Uri.

Part I below describes how the market was originally meant to work–but has not worked given the governmentally redesigned power market, beginning with generation. The change was caused by:

Investment monies lured away from developing baseload capacity by government subsidies and special tax incentives, and
Operating opportunities lured away by “first-use” mandates. First-use mandates are especially pernicious as grid operators must purchase from IVREs whenever they are producing, leaving the reliable generators idle. (continue reading)

Reliable vs. Intermittent Generation: A Primer

Part 1     ---     Part 2

Weather events which cause significant loss and damage include tropical cyclones, tornadoes, floods, drought and some wildfires. The consensed climate science community has projected that each of these weather events would become more frequent, more powerful or of longer duration as the result of anthropogenic climate change. These projections have been based on the output of climate models. Recently, the consensed climate science community has begun claiming that portions of the damage caused by these weather events can be attributed to climate change, based on the outputs of attribution models. However, there is little or no evidence that the projections have been correct or that the purported attribution is accurate.

Tropical Cyclone Season

The 2022 tropical cyclone season was projected to be more active than average. However, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which combines frequency, intensity and duration for tropical cyclones globally was approximately 29% below average according to the NOAA National Hurricane Center data, as shown in the graph below from Colorado State University. There is no apparent upward trend in global ACE over the past 42 years.

Tornado Season

The US tornado season in 2022 was slightly more active than average, as shown in the graph below.

While there is an upward trend in the number of tornadoes reported, some of this trend is attributed to the availability of satellite imagery which permitted detection of tornadoes which might otherwise not have been reported.

However, there is a definite downward trend in the frequency of strong tornadoes, as shown in the graph below.

 
Global Weather Losses

The trends in both global weather disaster frequency and losses from global weather disasters, are shown in the graphs below.

 
There is clearly no upward trend in global disaster numbers or losses which could be associated with anthropogenic climate change.

Droughts and Floods

Historical data regarding droughts and floods are limited on a global basis. There appear to be no clear trends in frequency, duration or severity attributable to anthropogenic climate change, though the climate models project future increases. The IPCC reports that precipitation has increased over the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but notes no specific instances of reduced precipitation. The IPCC also has low confidence that there has been an increase in flooding globally. There have been increases in the severity of flooding, though much of the change is attributable to increased areas of impermeable surfaces, which reduce soil absorption and increase runoff. There is also an increasing trend in financial damage from flooding, but most of that increase is attributable to increased property values and continued construction in known flood plains.

Wildfires

Wildfires are often discussed in association with weather. However, the only weather-related cause of wildfires is lightning. Other causes of wildfires include electricity transmission line failures, accidental ignitions and arson. There has been a dramatic decrease in wildfire acres burned in the US, as shown in the graph below.

Some of the severity of wildfires is attributable to changes in forestry management, including failure to remove forest debris.

In summary, the good news about weather is that it does not appear to be worsening over time as the result of climate change.