Several lawsuits filed by California cities and counties and a similar lawsuit filed by New York City against major oil companies seek billions for current and potential future damages resulting from climate change caused by CO2 emissions from their products. Another lawsuit, filed by a group of children against the US federal government, claims that “government's actions and failures to act have caused climate change, thus violating the youngest generation's constitutional rights to life, liberty and property, and have failed to protect essential public trust resources.”

The California and NYC lawsuits focus primarily on sea level rise caused by climate change. However, sea level has been rising, at a relatively constant rate, since before human emissions of CO2 are believed to have begun having an impact on climate. While changes in sea level are measurable, there is no scientific method to measure any incremental contribution of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations to natural sea level rise in the period following the trough of the Little Ice Age. Therefore, there is no scientific basis on which to allocate some percentage of current and possible future adverse impacts of continued sea level rise to anthropogenic climate change.

The children’s lawsuit against the government is broader in scope, but probably less defensible scientifically. There is no documented evidence of loss of life or liberty in the US attributable to climate change. Sea level rise arguably results in a loss of property, but there is no scientific basis on which to attribute that loss of property to climate change resulting from government action or inaction.

There have been broad accusations in the media that climate change made the impacts of tropical storm Sandy and hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria greater than they would otherwise have been. However, none of these accusations are based on measured data. These storms, while unusual, were not unprecedented. The storms were not as unusual as the twelve-year hiatus in major hurricane landfalls which preceded them. Recent analysis of global weather-related damages by Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. demonstrates that global damages have declined as a percentage of global GDP since 1990, despite peaks in 2005 and 2017.

Proving responsibility for some fraction of current damages on anthropogenic climate change will be difficult, since it is not currently possible to measure any incremental impact. However, proving responsibility for potential future damages will be even more difficult, as well assigning some potential future costs to those damages.

Scenarios describing potential future climate change resulting from increased anthropogenic CO2 emissions are based on unverified climate models, which can hardly be considered to constitute evidence. The potential future financial impacts of those modeled scenarios are based on unverified assumptions applied to those scenarios produced by the unverified climate models, which can hardly be considered to constitute evidence.

We can expect some interesting discussions regarding the rules of evidence as these lawsuits proceed. These discussions will likely include whether “adjustment” of measured temperatures and measured sea level rise represents evidence tampering; and, whether “infilling” temperatures where no data exists represents manufacturing evidence.

The graphs below were prepared and published by NASA in October, 2005 and in January and October, 2015. The graphs were highlighted and annotated by Professor Howard Cork Hayden to call attention to changes made to the historical near-surface temperature anomaly record. All three graphs are based on the same historical data for the period 1880 – 2005. The two 2015 graphs contain additional temperature anomaly results based on additional data for the period 2005 – 2015.

The 2005 near-surface temperature anomaly value is the same in each of the three graphs, as indicated by the red circles at the upper bounds of the highlighted areas. However, the 1880 near-surface temperature anomaly values are not the same in the three graphs, as indicated by the red circles at the lower bounds of the highlighted areas.

The 1880 near-surface temperature anomaly value is -0.12ºC in the October 2005 graph above. However, the 1880 near-surface temperature anomaly value is reduced to -0.4ºC in the January 2015 graph below; and, reduced again to -0.5ºC in the October 2015 graph. These reductions, a factor of +4ºC in total, increase the reported temperature anomaly increase over the 1880 – 2005 period by 0.5ºC, or ~70%.

It should be obvious that NASA collected no new data from the 1880 – 1940 period over which the changes in the anomaly values were made. Rather, the temperature data which had been “adjusted” prior to computing the anomalies shown in the 2005 graph, were “readjusted” prior to the publication of the January 2015 graph and again prior to the publication of the October 2015 graph.

Data are immutable. However, NASA “adjusted” temperature anomalies appear to be both highly and multiply mutable. The changes shown in the three graphs reproduced above clearly demonstrate that the three different values for the 1880 anomaly cannot all be accurate; and, raise the question of whether any of the values are accurate. In fact, virtually all of the annual anomaly values for the period 1880 – 1940 have been “readjusted” since the graph was published in October 2005.

It is also important to recall that the temperature data used to calculate the anomalies shown in the graphs above had been “adjusted” by NOAA before being submitted to NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies), which then further “adjusted” the anomalies before producing the graphs. While the adjustments to the historical data do not affect the value of the current anomaly, they do affect the magnitude of the total anomaly since 1880; and, they affect the rate of change of the anomalies over the period since 1880.

Changes to the calculated historical anomalies, such as those illustrated in the three graphs above, raise significant questions about the accuracy and the value of the near-surface temperature anomaly records. Assignment of a Tiger Team to review the accuracy of the near-surface temperature anomaly products produced by NOAA and NASA and the justification for the multiple “adjustments” and “readjustments” to the temperature data and temperature anomaly products should be a precursor to any Red Team / Blue Team debate which allowed those records to be used as evidence.

The ultimate goal of those promoting the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming meme is the establishment of a global vegan commune of approximately 1 billion souls, run by some subset of the tinpot despots represented in the United Nations General Assembly.

Achieving this goal would require global governance, enforced veganism, enforced communal living and dramatic population control programs. Achieving this goal by the end of the 21^st century would arguably require enforced eugenics and genocide. This would seem possible only to those who believe that the end justifies the means; and, those willing to choose who lives and who dies, or who is born and who is not born. However, there appear to be sufficient numbers of such people available.

The commune must be global, to assure that the entire global population is included, as are all global wealth and resources. There can be no alternative which would permit the wealthy, the productive and the ambitious to thrive separately and avoid sharing life with the poor, the unproductive and the unmotivated.

The commune must be vegan, to avoid the “greenhouse gas” emissions resulting from animal husbandry, as well as the requirement for massive land allocations to grazing or food production to support large populations of meat and dairy animals. These land areas would be reforested, where possible, to assist in removing CO2 from the atmosphere to avoid an impending climate catastrophe, or converted to crop production for human consumption.

The population of the global commune must be stabilized and then reduced to relieve stress on global resources and food production.

"The power of population is so superior to the power of the Earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.", Thomas Robert Malthus

Malthusianism is still promoted by Paul and Ann Ehrlich and by former presidential science advisor John Holdren, among others.

The UN bureaucracy is actively planning for global governance, though it is still focused on achieving this through the cooperation of sovereign governments, rather than by replacing sovereign governments with a single, global government.

There is no history of global governance of a communal society, though there is a history of national governments of large involuntary communal societies. That history is not a history of great success, but rather a history of repression and deprivation, as well as a history of mass population reductions in which more than 100 million people died. However, even that is a “drop in the bucket” compared to the population reductions required to satisfy the Malthusians.

Despite the sad history of religious suppression in communal societies, numerous religious leaders appear surprisingly anxious to support the efforts of national politicians and UN bureaucrats to move the world toward the ultimate goal of a global commune.

Interestingly, the largest of the involuntary communal societies have abandoned or substantially modified their communal structures. There are reportedly only five remaining communist nations (including China), four of which require substantial outside assistance to survive. The ultimate problem with a global communal society is that there would be no “outside” to provide assistance.

“The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other peoples’ money.”, Lady Thatcher

“Socialism is the Big Lie of the twentieth century. While it promised prosperity, equality, and security, it delivered poverty, misery, and tyranny. Equality was achieved only in the sense that everyone was equal in his or her misery.”, Mark Perry

“Communism might help men cope with poverty, but it can never get them out of it. At best, communist societies stay stagnant.”, Will Durant

By: Roy Spencer PH. D.

“The total amount of CO₂ humans have added to the atmosphere in the last 100 years has upset the radiative energy budget of the Earth by only 1%. How the climate system responds to that small ‘poke’ is very uncertain. The IPCC says there will be strong warming, with cloud changes making the warming worse. I claim there will be weak warming, with cloud changes acting to reduce the influence of that 1% change."

My Global Warming Skepticism, for Dummies

Climate science peer review is the “walking dead”, kept walking by those who “killed” it in the first place. It was “killed” by those it was intended to serve, by their willingness to provide “pal” review to those with whom they agreed and their unwillingness to provide fair (or any) review to researchers with whom they disagreed. This process has resulted in the publication of “peer” reviewed studies in major journals which have later been demonstrated to be flawed. It has arguably also resulted in skeptical studies not being published, or being published in lesser known scientific journals.

There appear to have been numerous factors which contributed to the zombification of climate science peer review, including:

• willingness of journals to permit authors to select their peer reviewers;
• unwillingness of authors to select critical peers;
• willingness of journals to publish studies without providing access to all the background materials necessary for critical review;
• reluctance of authors to provide access to their work product by peers expected to be critical of their work; and,
• failure of authors to properly archive their work product.

Many of these factors only became apparent as the result of the publication of the Climategate e-mails, which exposed the active resistance of researchers at the University of East Anglia to providing data to skeptical peers, efforts to avoid publication of skeptical research in premier journals and to prevent its inclusion in the reports of the IPCC and efforts to have journal editors disciplined or fired for allowing peer review of skeptical research and its subsequent publication.

The Climategate e-mails also exposed the existence of “Mike’s Nature trick”, which Michael Mann used to help shape his “hockey stick”; and, the broad awareness of Mann’s “trick” within the consensed climate science community. Dr. Mann has since aggressively resisted FOIA requests for release of his e-mail exchanges with other climate researchers and the supporting data and analytical procedures involved in creation of the “hockey stick”. Mann has also sued another climate researcher, several authors and an internet website for criticizing the “hockey stick”. Interestingly, he and his attorneys have “slow walked” the legal process, avoiding discovery while increasing the legal expenses of those he has sued. The source(s) of his funding for these legal efforts are unknown.

Dr. Susan Crockford, a Canadian zoologist recently published a paper which contradicted the conclusions of polar bear research published previously. She was quickly attacked in an online piece by the authors of the earlier research and others.  She has demanded a retraction.

Dr. Mark Jacobson and several co-authors published a study regarding renewable energy, which was later challenged in a paper by another group of authors. Jacobson has since sued the authors of the paper challenging his work for defamation. The source(s) of his funding for the lawsuit are unknown.

At the extreme, funding of skeptical climate research can be and has been limited or prevented by “peers” unwilling to provide fair peer review of skeptics’ research proposals. Roger Pielke, Jr. says he has been told by a National Science Foundation (NSF) officer: “Don’t even bother submitting an NSF proposal, because we won’t be able to find a reviewer who will give you a positive score.”

scientific method: principles and procedures for the systematic pursuit of knowledge involving the recognition and formulation of a problem, the collection of data through observation and experiment, and the formulation and testing of hypotheses. 

One of the most egregious aspects of the activities exposed by the Climategate e-mails was the concerted effort to deter publication of scientific papers which questioned the climate orthodoxy of the consensed climate science community and prevent inclusion of those papers in the IPCC reports. Despite their discovery as the result of Climategate, these activities have continued unabated. While the consensed climate science community has been unsuccessful in preventing publication of scientific papers critical of the climate orthodoxy, it has been successful in keeping most of them from publication in the premier scientific journals in the US and Europe; and, it has been successful in suppressing media attention to the studies.

There were more than 500 scientific papers supportive of some aspect of climate skepticism published in 2016. More than 400 such papers have been published in 2017. (Interestingly, a search for this article produced a SNOPES “Fact Check” as the first result.) These papers have received little or no attention in the US media, largely as the result of their publication in secondary journals; and, as the result of the absence of promotion by the consensed climate science community.

The attention of the US media is primarily focused on the results of government funded studies involving the use of unverified climate models to create scare scenarios. The study authors, the journals in which they publish and the government agencies which fund their studies are conscientious in their efforts to attract media attention; and, the “if it bleeds, it leads” media are all too anxious to cooperate.

The ability of members of the consensed climate science community to suggest potential peers to participate in peer review of their scientific studies, generally to the exclusion of skeptical reviewers, has reportedly degenerated into a system of “pal review”. This has been accompanied by an unwillingness on the part of members of the consensed climate science community to review scientific papers by skeptics of the climate orthodoxy; and, by submission of persistent critical reviews of skeptical papers.

One of the most active areas of skeptical climate research is the study of the sensitivity of the climate to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which the consensed climate science community has identified as the “control knob” of global climate. Numerous skeptical climate scientists question this view of CO2, referring to it as a “fallacy”. Several recent studies have suggested climate sensitivities to CO2 significantly lower than the range of values used by the IPCC.

The continued divergence of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model scenarios from the observed global temperatures have caused members of the consensed climate science community to acknowledge that there are problems with the climate models, including excessive sensitivities ascribed to the “control knob”.

In summary, the “settled science” might not be “settled” after all; and, the climate orthodoxy might not be as orthodox as we have been asked to believe.

By: Andy May

"Seven posts on the potential costs and hazards of human-caused global warming and the impact of humans on the environment in general."

1. Do humans harm the environment? Dec. 9, 2017
2. Population Growth and the food supply Dec. 11, 2017
3. Calculating the Cost of Global Warming Dec. 14, 2017
4. Extinctions and shutting down the Gulf Stream Dec 16, 2017
5. Climate-related Deaths and Insecurity Dec. 18, 2017
6. Global Warming and Extreme Weather Dec. 22, 2017
7. Glaciers and Sea Level Rise Dec. 28, 2017

The year 2017 was a good year regarding climate change in the US, at least from the perspective of this skeptic. The US inaugurated a President with a healthy skepticism regarding CAGW (catastrophic anthropogenic global warming) and climate alarmism. The new President appointed an EPA Administrator with a healthy skepticism regarding CAGW and climate alarmism.

The President has withdrawn the US from the Paris Accords, ending an “all pain and no gain” commitment to emissions reductions and environmental transfer payments which would have hampered US economic growth. The President has also halted future payments into the UN Green Climate Fund. Unfortunately, the President has not yet withdrawn the US from the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), as required by current statute. This withdrawal would also speed US withdrawal from the Paris Accords.

The President’s budget proposal showed a 35% reduction in the EPA budget, largely representing a reduction in EPA’s climate change activities. There has already been a reduction of approximately 40% in federal government awards for research dealing with climate change. This should result in a significant reduction in the number of model-based scary scenario studies fed to the media. There was also a significant reduction of the US presence at COP23 (United Nations Conference of Parties).

The EPA Administrator placed the previous Administration’s Clean Power Plan on hold, potentially avoiding the premature closing of coal-fired power plants and the resulting disruption of the US electric industry.

The EPA Administrator ended the “sue and settle” practice at EPA, under which the agency cooperated with environmental interests in preparing and pursuing lawsuits against EPA, which the Agency then settled on terms acceptable to both the environmental interests and Agency staff.

The EPA Administrator has also expressed interest in attempting to modify or reverse the EPA Endangerment Finding regarding CO2 and other “greenhouse gases”. The Administrator has expressed the belief that the science cited in support of the Endangerment Finding is faulty; and, that the science was not developed by EPA, as required by statute, but was taken in large measure from work reported by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Regrettably, the Administrator has apparently taken no actions so far regarding the Endangerment Finding.

The EPA Administrator suggested structuring a Red Team / Blue Team exercise to review and debate the current status of climate change research and of the climate models on which the CAGW concern is based. However, no action has apparently been initiated regarding this process. This effort would require significant cooperation from both NASA and NOAA. The President has nominated individuals to the Administrator positions in these agencies, but neither has been confirmed.

US emissions of “greenhouse gases” have continued to decline, despite US withdrawal from the Paris Accords. Emissions by other signatory countries to the Paris Accords have not necessarily followed suit. Several countries which expected to receive funds from the US Green Climate Fund to support low emissions economic development have threatened to abandon their plans if the funding is not forthcoming.

The global temperature anomaly products continue to report observed “adjusted” anomalies significantly below the scenarios produced by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models. This trend is expected to continue, as a growing number of climate studies are reporting lower climate sensitivities to “greenhouse gas” concentrations in the atmosphere than the climate sensitivities used by the IPCC.

Finally, it appears highly unlikely that 2017 will be “the warmest year evah”. Whew!

“Climate Change Skepticism is “Perverse”, Pope Francis

Perverse: turned away from what is right or good: corrupt (Merriam-Webster)

There is ample historical evidence for climate change. Therefore, while false skepticism regarding the reality of climate change might be perverse, real skepticism regarding climate change is simply ignorance. However, ignoring or denying the reality of the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age while promoting a future climate “hockey stick”, for example, might be considered perverse. Believing that the climate had always been as it was in 1850, for example, is simply ignorance.

Anthropogenic climate change skepticism is more complex. Skepticism that all previous climate change was natural, but that recent climate change is exclusively or primarily anthropogenic, is a reasonable position, since it is not currently possible to measure the human contribution to climate change on a global or macro scale. However, it is possible to demonstrate human influence on climate on a local or micro scale, particularly in the case of the Urban Heat Island Effect. It is also possible to calculate the impact of human forest clearing and conversion to farmland on the albedo of the land. It is unreasonable to assume that the natural factors which caused climate change in the past somehow ceased, to be replaced exclusively by human influences.

Catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) skepticism is even more complex; and, more rational. CAGW concerns are based on unverified climate models, typically fed the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 “business-as-usual” or worst-case scenario. Since the models have not been verified, there is no basis upon which to assume that they have any predictive skill. In fact, the models are currently showing warming more than two times greater than observations.

There are, however, several aspects of the current climate science process which are perverse:

• continuing to collect and adjust near-surface temperature data believed to be inaccurate, rather than replacing the temperature sensors with sensors capable of producing accurate data, or relocating the sensors to appropriate locations;
• continuing to “create” temperature inputs for locations where there are no sensors, or where the sensors have ceased operating, rather than install or replace sensors;
• continuing to “reanalyze” previously adjusted temperature data to alter the historical record;
• continuing to fund production of catastrophic climate scenarios using unverified models and unrealistic emissions growth paths, rather than devoting the available funding to attempting to verify one or more models;
• failing to seek to understand the relationships between near-surface temperature measurements and satellite temperature measurements; and,
• failing to seek to understand the relationship between surface-based and satellite-based sea level rise measurements.

There are also aspects of the politics surrounding the climate science process which are perverse:

• demonization of legitimate skepticism on the part of climate scientists;
• refusal to fund research which questions the climate orthodoxy;
• erection of barriers to the publication of skeptical scientific papers; and,
• lawsuits against climate scientists critical of others’ scientific papers.

Skepticism regarding unproven assertions is a natural human response. Attacking that skepticism, rather than responding to it, typically raises “red flags” among skeptics. The persistent refusal of those in the consensed climate science community to debate, or otherwise engage, skeptical scientists raises additional “red flags”.

From the November 27, 2017 issue of the Competitive Enterprise Institute's "OnPOINT"

A Veneer of Certainty Stoking Climate Alarm

By: Rupert Darwall

“While the nations of the world met in Bonn to discuss implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement, the Trump administration was working to dismantle President Obama’s Clean Power Plan and to establish a climate “red team” to critically evaluate the scientific basis for dangerous human-caused climate change and the policy responses.”

The often stated “goal” of the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) is to limit global warming to 2^oC (3.6^oF) above pre-industrial levels; and, preferably to 1.5^oC (2.7^oF) above pre-industrial levels. The near-surface temperature records suggest that ~1^oC (1.8^oF) of this warming has already occurred, leaving just 0.5-1^oC (0.9-1.8^oF) until the “goal” is reached. The Paris Accord was touted as the last, best hope to keep global temperatures within the 2^oC goal. However, the UNFCCC has recently acknowledged that achieving the emissions reductions pledged under the Accord would be inadequate to avoid exceeding the 2^oC “goal”, no less the 1.5^oC preferred “goal”.

It is generally acknowledged that most of the global warming in the industrial era has manifested as milder winters and warmer nights, rather than as hotter summers. Therefore, a look at typical winter temperatures today, with the existing 1^oC (1.8^oF) warming and in a 1^oC (1.8^oF) warmer future can provide some perspective on this potential future, warmer world.

A trip down Interstates 71 and 75, from Cleveland, Ohio to Atlanta, Georgia provides one example.

The average difference between the winter high temperatures in these cities is 3^oF, city to city, or 40% greater than the potential future warming “goal” envisioned by the UNFCCC. Essentially, each city on the list would have an average winter high temperature slightly cooler than the city below it on the list. The average difference between the winter low temperatures in these cities is 2^oF, city to city. Interestingly, the average difference between the summer high temperatures and between the summer low temperatures is 1^oF, city to city.

A trip down Interstates 29 and 35, from Fargo, North Dakota to Laredo, Texas provides another example.

The average difference between the winter high temperatures in these cities is ~6^oF, city to city, or 200% greater than the potential future warming “goal” envisioned by the UNFCCC. Essentially, each city on the list would have an average winter high temperature ~4^oF cooler than the city below it on the list. The average difference between the winter low temperatures in these cities is ~6^oF, city to city. Interestingly, the average difference between the summer high temperatures and between the summer low temperatures is ~2^oF, city to city.

The potential future warming to the UNFCCC “goal” would change growing seasons slightly, on average, but the larger effects would be on the start and end of the growing seasons, rather than on conditions during the growing season. The magnitude of these potential changes appears to be well within the ability of farmers to adapt their planting and harvesting schedules.

Google and other search engines are our modern-day paths to knowledge on an extremely broad range of subjects. However, at least on the topic of climate science and climate scientists, they are a not-so-subtly guided path toward information consistent with the current climate consensus.

Searches for information on Dr. Roy Spencer, Dr. Judith Curry, Dr. Richard Lindzen, Dr. John Christy and Dr. David Legates all begin with links to their individual websites, followed by a link to a Wikipedia page. However, these are immediately followed by one or two links to websites such as skepticalscience.com, desmogblog.com, thinkprogress.org and facingsouth.org., typically referring to them as climate “deniers” or climate “misinformers”, or linking them to conservative or industry funding sources.

Searches for information on Dr. James Hansen, Dr. Gavin Schmidt, Dr. Michael Mann, Dr. Kevin Trenberth and other members of the consensed climate science community follow a similar pattern initially, but contain no links to opposition websites. Rather, they typically contain links to recent studies they have completed or recent public comments they have made.

The companies which operate search engines use several criteria to determine the material to which they provide links; and, the order in which those links appear. The consistent “first list” provision of links to opposition websites in response to searches for information regarding skeptical climate scientists and the complete absence of such links in the case of searches for information on members of the consensed climate science community suggests several possible explanations:

• the operator of the search engine prefers or supports one position over another;
• the early-listed website owners somehow influence their positioning in the lists; or,
• there are no opposition websites taking positions against the climate consensus and the members of the consensed climate science community.

Regardless, the effect is to include negative references to the scientists or their work prior to providing links to their work or to positions they take regarding climate issues. This makes finding links to their work more difficult, while not-so-subtly suggesting that their work might be of poor quality, or of little value, or inaccurate.

Similarly, searches for recent climate change research typically return very few links to skeptical research and skeptical scientists. Much of this is the result of the massive disparity between the funding levels for research supporting the global and national government climate consensus and the funding levels available for skeptical research. The first lists provided by such searches typically contain multiple links to NASA and EPA webpages and references to government-funded research.

Searches for skeptical climate change research typically contain multiple links to sites critical of the skeptical position; and, few if any links to actual skeptical research results.

Success in finding skeptical research results and commentary essentially requires that you know where to look for such information, since the most used search engines will not make the search easy or very productive. Even searches for skeptical climate change websites return first lists containing links to opposition websites, including skepticalscience.com and the Union of Concerned Scientists.

“It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are.  If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.” --Richard P. Feynman

The impact of incremental increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations diminishes as the CO2 concentration increases, as illustrated by this graph.

The author notes that “the first 20 ppm accounts for over half of the heating effect to the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm”. Equally important is that the impact of increased atmospheric CO2, from whatever source, is approaching zero asymptotically.

The range of climate models included in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) largely do not illustrate an asymptotic approach to a limiting anomaly value, as would be expected, as illustrated in this graph. However, both the HadCRUT4 near-surface temperature anomaly and the UAH Lower Atmosphere temperature anomaly appear to demonstrate the beginning of an asymptotic approach to a limiting anomaly value, which would be substantially lower than might be indicated by most of the climate models. This apparent asymptotic approach coincides with the “hiatus” or “pause” which followed the 1998 super El Nino.

Numerous recent research papers have suggested far lower climate sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations than the climate sensitivity estimates used by the CMIP5 climate model scenarios shown above. Co-author of the paper “ Lewis N and Curry J A: The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates, Climate Dynamics (2014)”, Nic Lewis, explains their study here. The results reported in these papers are consistent with the appearance of an approach to a limiting climate anomaly in both the near-surface and satellite anomalies, as shown above. While the duration of the flattening of the anomaly curves above is too short to be considered a climate change, it is certainly an indication that there are effects occurring in the climate which are not predicted by the models.

The time frame shown in the graph above begins shortly after the beginning of the satellite era. A longer time frame is available in the graph below, produced by Dr. James E. Hansen of NASA GISS in 1988.

The lowest line on the graph, Scenario “C”, assumes drastically lower emissions beginning between 1990 and 2000. The point “x1” indicates the value of the UAH satellite anomaly as of June 2017. The point “x2” indicates the value of the HadCRUT4 anomaly as of June 2017. The calculated anomalies are consistent with Scenario “C”, though actual emissions history is consistent with Scenario “A”; and, are also consistent with lower climate sensitivity.

The consensed climate science community has begun to acknowledge the widening gap between the climate scenarios produced by the CMIP5 climate models and the anomalies calculated by NOAA / NCEI, NASA GISS, HadCRUT, UAH and RSS. However, that has not yet ended the persistent claim that “the science is settled” and that “the time for debate is over”, nor has it ended EPA Administrator Pruitt’s call for a Red Team / Blue Team exercise on climate change.

“It ain’t over till it’s over.”, Yogi Berra, American philosopher

From the summer 2017 issue of ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

The Science Police

By: Keith Kloor

" On highly charged issues, such as climate change and endangered species, peer review literature and public discourse are aggressively patrolled by self-appointed sheriffs in the scientific community."

EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt has signed an order rescinding the Clean Power Plan. This action will trigger an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking regarding potential future emissions reductions and reduction strategies. This action will also likely trigger a plethora of lawsuits by environmental groups; and, perhaps, by several states. However, these lawsuits are likely to be fought out in the courts, rather than resolved through the “sue and settle” approach for which the Obama Administration EPA became famous.

The Clean Power Plan was frequently characterized as “a war against coal”, though it was actually a war against fossil fuel use for electric power generation. The Clean Power Plan established CO2 emissions levels for power plants which could not be met by any commercially available technology for burning coal to produce electricity. However, this approach left the door open for further reductions in the permitted emissions levels, which would eventually have precluded natural gas simple-cycle and combined-cycle gas turbines as well. Natural gas was viewed as a “bridge” fuel, useful to displace coal for power generation until it could then be replaced by renewables.

It is important to recognize that, under President Obama’s Climate Action Plan the Clean Power Plan was the Obama Administration’s primary tool to move the electric sector of the US energy economy to a zero net CO2 emissions by the end of the twenty-first century, if not before. The Obama Administration’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for light duty vehicles and Regulations for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Trucks and Buses focused on gasoline and Diesel emissions from the transportation sector. The intent of these regulations was to move the transportation market towards electric vehicles.

The Climate Action Plan also discussed industrial, commercial and residential energy efficiency initiatives, but did not discuss setting emissions standards for those energy markets which would ultimately result in the elimination of fossil fuel use for industrial and commercial processes, or for commercial and residential space heating, water heating, laundry drying, food preparation, etc. However, the ultimate intent was to shift all direct energy use in these sectors to electricity.

Each of these federal actions was part of an overall plan to shift the US energy economy to total reliance on electricity; and, ultimately, to total reliance on electricity generated by renewable energy sources, primarily hydro, geothermal, wind and solar, plus other renewable sources which might become economically competitive over time, including ocean thermal energy conversion, wave energy and dry hot rock geothermal energy.

The Obama Administration used tax policy and direct subsidies to encourage utilities and their customers to adopt renewable technologies and hybrid and electric vehicles. Numerous states supported this effort with tax policies and direct subsidies, as well as indirect subsidies, including net metering of electricity for residential and commercial customers who implemented on-site renewable energy systems, primarily solar photovoltaic electric generating systems.

All of this activity stemmed from the 2009 EPA Endangerment Finding. Recent research has questioned whether the information used to justify the Endangerment Finding was accurate. It is likely that the current Administration will seek to overturn the 2009 Endangerment Finding, though this is perceived to be a very difficult challenge.