From: Watts Up With That

By: Andy May

Date: February 28 - March 13, 2024

Climate Model Bias Series 1-7

Climate Model Bias 1: What is a Model? - February 28, 2024

Climate Model Bias 2: Modeling Greenhouse Gases - March 1, 2024

Climate Model Bias 3: Solar Input - March 3, 2024

Climate Model Bias 4: Convection and atmospheric circulation - March 4, 2024

Climate Model Bias 5: Storminess - March 9, 2024

Climate Model Bias 6: WGII - March 12, 2024

Climate Model Bias 7: WGIII - March 13, 2024

Climate Model Bias Series 1-7

The capacity factor of solar photovoltaic generation systems varies as a function of geography, season, time of day, weather conditions and solar collector type. The most common utility scale solar array consists of numerous parallel rows of flat plate collectors mounted in a fixed orientation and at a fixed mounting angle. In this installation configuration, the incoming solar insolation is perfectly perpendicular to the collector surface twice each year. Throughout the remainder of the year, the insolation strikes the collector surface from a above or below and from further East or West than the perpendicular, which reduces the ability of the solar system to achieve rating plate capacity.

The current fleet of these fixed solar arrays achieve an average annual capacity factor of approximately 25%. However, the monthly average capacity factor of current systems ranges from a high of ~32% in May and June to a low of ~13% in December, as the result of both lower sun elevation and reduced hours of daylight. These capacity factors are primarily for solar installations in the US desert southwest, where the seasonal variation in daily solar insolation varies by a factor of approximately 2.5, as illustrated in the maps shown here.

The map below illustrates the variation of annual direct solar insolation across the US.

As utility scale solar installations continue to expand beyond the US southwest, the annual capacity factor of the solar installations will decrease as the result of lower sun angle and shorter hours of daylight, particularly during the winter months. For example, the realistic average daily solar insolation in Phoenix, Arizona reaches a peak of `6.7 kWh/m2/day in June and declines to ~2.5 kWh/m2/day in December, an approximate 63% reduction from peak. However, in Buffalo, New York the realistic average daily solar insolation reaches a peak of ~4.9 kWh/m2/day and declines to ~0.9 kWh/m2/day in December, an approximate 82% reduction from peak. Fairbanks, Alaska experiences a realistic average daily solar insolation peak of ~4.6 kWh/m2/day in June and declines to ~0 kWh/m2/day in December, an approximate 100% reduction.

The lower peak average daily solar insolation in most of the US, relative to the average daily solar insolation in the desert southwest, suggests that solar installations in most of the US would achieve lower capacity factors throughout the year, but especially in the winter, and would therefore have to be significantly larger than southwest installations to achieve the same annual generation output. For example, a solar installation in Buffalo, NY would be expected to have an annual capacity factor of approximately 18%.

The reduced solar capacity factors in the winter months would become an increasing concern as the US energy economy transitioned to “all-electric everything”, as most electric utilities would transition from summer peaking to winter peaking as fossil fueled space and water heating systems are replaced with electric appliances and equipment. Peak electricity demand would coincide with significantly reduced solar electricity generation, magnifying the need for electricity storage to bridge the gap between supply and demand.

From: Eurasia Review

By: Dr. Lars Schernikau

Date: January 17, 2024

The ‘Energy Trilemma’ And The Cost Of Electricity – OpEd

Why “Renewables” cannot save but cost Billions

Over the last 150 years, abundant electricity from coal and gas led to an unprecedented reduction in poverty, as well as an increase in longevity and health. Currently, these low cost, reliable power sources generate approximately 60% of electricity and 50% of primary energy worldwide. Primarily due to climate change concerns, coal and gas fuels are now slowly replaced by ‘renewables’, such as wind and solar based energy. But this comes with a cost.

Bloomberg issued their latest global Levelized Cost of Electricity (1) (LCOE) analysis in 2023, comparing the historical LCOE of various ‘renewables’ with the cost of coal, gas, and nuclear, drawing a misleading conclusion of wind and solar being most cost-effective (Figure 1). LCOE based reports and analyses also by other organizations such as IEA, IRENA, IEEFA, IMF, Agora, form the basis for many governments to mistakenly conclude that the transition from a coal and gas based power system to wind and solar will save billions, if not trillions at global scale.

Political decision makers know the three pillars of a successful energy policy (a) reliability, (b) affordability, and (c) environmental sustainability. But when taking a closer look, it becomes apparent that, power ministries are struggling to find a balance within this ‘Energy Trilemma’ and moreover, that the three pillars follow a specific priority:

As a prime concern, access to reliable energy is needed, before considering the affordability thereof. Once the balance between reliable and affordable energy is achieved, only then environmental sustainability can be tackled in a meaningful way.

Claiming “renewable” energy from wind and solar is cheap and comes without environmental consequences, is a crucial and detrimental energy economic misunderstanding.(continue reading)

The ‘Energy Trilemma’ And The Cost Of Electricity – OpEd

anomaly: something different, abnormal, peculiar, or not easily classified: something anomalous

temperature: degree of hotness or coldness measured on a definite scale

Source: Merriam-Webster

The primary focus of the global warming / climate change issue has been on the anomaly of current temperatures relative to temperatures at some time, or over some period, in the past. One of the primary reasons for focusing on anomalies has been the inaccuracy of global average temperature measurements. Even if absolute temperature measurements are inaccurate, anomalies can accurately reflect temperature changes over time, as long as the conditions surrounding the temperature measurement instrument do not change and the instrument calibration remains stable. Anomalies lose accuracy when the area surrounding the instrument changes, the instrument is moved or the instrument drifts out of calibration.

The consensed climate science community routinely “adjusts” measured temperatures to “correct’ for perceived inaccuracies in the temperature measurements; and, these “adjustments” affect the calculated temperature anomalies. The anomalies are frequently presented in graphical form with severely truncated “y” axes, which make the anomalies appear larger and the changes in the anomalies appear to be greater or occurring more rapidly, as shown in the graph below from wattsupwiththat.com.

A focus on actual temperatures presents a very different picture, particularly when presented in graphical form with a “y” axis representative of the entire range of historical temperatures experienced in the area exhibiting the temperature anomaly, as shown in the graph below from wattsupwiththat.com.

The surface temperatures on earth range from a maximum of +58°C to a minimum of – 88°C (+136°F to – 126°F). The global annual mean surface temperature is thought to be approximately 15°C (59°F), but is difficult to determine accurately because of the limited availability and coverage of temperature measuring stations and questions about the accuracy of the temperature readings from those stations. The average daily temperature range for the earth is estimated to be between 11 to 12°C (~20 to 22°F). It is in this context that we discuss global mean near-surface temperature anomaly estimated to be approximately 1°C (1.8°F) over the 140 year period since 1880.

The daily near surface temperature range of 11-12°C occurs throughout the calendar year. However, in a region with an annual mean surface temperature approximately equal to the global annual mean surface temperature, the average daily temperature in the peak summer month would be approximately 28°C (50°F) warmer than the average daily temperature in the peak winter month.

Compared to the range of near surface temperatures measured on the earth, the current global annual mean temperature anomaly represents approximately a 0.7% increase. Compared to the global average mean temperature, the current anomaly is approximately a 7% increase. However, note that the global annual mean near surface temperature is approximately 5°C below the typical control temperature of heating and cooling systems for occupied spaces. Also note that approximately 60% of the anomaly manifests as an increase in nighttime temperatures, largely as the result of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect and agricultural irrigation effects on atmospheric humidity.

From: Climate Etc.

By: Planning Engineer (Russ Schussler)

Date: February 16, 2024

Time to Retire the Term “Renewable Energy” from Serious Discussions and Policy Directives: Part II

“Renewables”:  some resources support a healthy grid, other challenge it

The first part of this series discussed some of the shortcomings of the renewable/nonrenewable dichotomy.  Renewable generation resources are not necessarily sustainable or environmentally sound and non-renewable options can be clean and highly sustainable.  For example, you will find many ardent environmentalist groups strongly opposed to “renewable” biomass generation. Similarly, more and more environmentalists are dropping their objections to “nonrenewable” nuclear power. For those who are concerned with the health of the planet as well as those who want to use the earth for human flourishing the renewable/nonrenewable dichotomy is losing relevance. Referring generally to “renewable” and “nonrenewable”  resources or structuring policy to favor renewable does more harm than good as we face the complicate challenges ahead in maintain an adequate electric power supply in an environmentally responsible manner.

This posting examines the impacts of various generation alternatives s on the power system and the electric grid.   Renewable resources do not have a general impact on the grid; impacts vary by resource type. The various renewable resources alternatives available today differ greatly in how they impact the grid and should not be clustered.  Hydro resources with storage for example, work well to support the electric grid.  In fact, it may be the best resource available considering the varied needs of the major grids. Demanding loads that stress the system are often best located near hydro resources.  Other “renewable” resources to a greater or lesser extent may  present challenges to the operation of the grid and grid reliability.  In assessing the challenges of changing resources,  reports  that a particular grid is operating with 80% renewables may be impressive or virtually meaningless.  Of course, a grid can function well depending on 80% hydro resources, or 78% hydro and 2% wind and solar.  That’s very different and much less challenging than operating a grid with a penetration level of 40% wind and solar. Let’ look at some of the important characteristics of generation resources and how they differ among resource types. (continue reading)

Time to Retire the Term “Renewable Energy” from Serious Discussions and Policy Directives: Part II

Many electricity customers in all customer classes have fossil fueled emergency or standby generators which they use to power some or all of their electrical loads in the event of a grid power outage. For some commercial customers, such as hospitals, standby power systems are essential to assure the safety of patients such as those undergoing surgical procedures. For some industrial customers, such as those who operate continuous processes, standby generators are required to avoid loss of product in process or to avoid damage to equipment. For many other customers, emergency or standby generators are used to avoid the inconvenience of power outages.

The net zero energy economy would require elimination of these on-site fossil fueled generators since they are too small to justify implementation of carbon capture and storage systems to eliminate CO2 emissions. In some cases, on-site generation could be replaced by electricity storage systems, charged either by the grid or by on-site solar and/or wind generation.

State laws generally require that standby generators for hospitals must either be fueled by pipeline natural gas or supported by on-site fuel storage. The design process for these installations includes determination of the demands of essential electrical loads which are to be supported by the generator and the duration of the grid outage through which the system must be able to operate. This information is used to size the generator(s) and to determine the required on-site storage for other than pipeline-delivered fuels.

The design process would be similar for standby systems based on electric storage batteries. Battery system design would determine both the cumulative demand of the loads to be supported by the batteries and the cumulative power consumption of those loads over the expected duration of the grid outage. This design process must be conservative, since the batteries cannot be recharged during power outages. Also, these battery systems would require long-duration batteries capable of supporting the required loads during multiple day outages.

Some larger customers might negotiate with the grid operators to install grid scale storage capacity on their properties, with the understanding that the customers would have first call on the battery capacity in the event of a grid outage. However, that would require that battery capacity installed on the customer sites be long-duration and that it be first in line for recharging in the event of storage drawdown due to limited wind or solar generation output.

Some larger customers or groups of customers might choose to install small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) on-site. However, those customers would likely choose to use the SMRs as their primary source of electricity and to use the grid as backup or to supply loads which could be safely shed in the event of a grid outage.

An “all-electric everything” renewable plus storage grid is likely to be somewhat less reliable than the current predominantly fossil plus nuclear grid, especially during the period of rapid capacity and demand growth. This might lead greater numbers of customers to install on-site electricity storage systems.

From: Net Zero Watch

By: Ross Clark

Date: February 8, 2024

The Retreat from Net Zero

Introduction

The UN meetings on climate change have become renowned for their platitudes, with national leaders falling over each other to say what desparate straits the world is in, how we must decarbonise ever faster – before returning to their home countries and putting economic development well ahead of their promises to cut emissions. But the president of COP28 in Dubai in December 2023, Sultan Al Jaber, was unusually frank. Al Jaber, who also serves as the chair of Abu Dhabi state oil corporation, ADNOC, which recently announced a $150 billion investment to increase oil production by nearly 50 percent to 5 million barrels a day by 2027, appealed to former Irish President Mary Robinson: ‘show me a road map for the phase out of fossil fuel that allows for social, sustainable development…unless you want to take the world back into caves’.

Al Jaber was eviscerated for his comments, yet they were in tune with a silent majority. An analysis by the website Zero Tracker reveals that even countries with net zero targets are heavily resisting pressure to phase out exploration for and development of fossil fuel resources. There are 93 oil-producing countries that have net zero targets, but only six of them have plans to phase out oil. Only five out of 94 gas-producing countries with a net zero target have plans to phase out gas. As for coal-producing countries, only 65 of those with net zero targets have plans to stop production.

As always with COP meetings, the event ended with a communiqué promising that the world would try to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels – which is a long way from agreeing to phase them out by a certain date, as many activists demanded. After two weeks and several hundred thousands of tonnes of carbon dioxide spewed out by private jets and the like, the 98,000 delegates who had signed up for COP28 had come up with nothing more than an empty promise.

In fact, the list of countries with plans to phase out fossil fuels is showing few signs of growing. The new government in New Zealand has just reneged on the previous administration‘s pledge to do so. In Germany, Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck recently announced that he may delay the country’s planned phase-out of coal by 2030 because of the energy crisis provoked by the invasion of Ukraine.(continue reading)

The Retreat from Net Zero

Much has been written regarding the effects of the “energy transition” on energy cost, availability, reliability and the structure and operation of the electric grid. Those are all important issues. All are fraught with degrees of uncertainty, since there has not been a successful demonstration of a renewable plus storage grid anywhere and there are no plans to conduct such a demonstration.

Little has been written about the effects of the “energy transition” on the lives of individuals and families who would be totally dependent on the electric grid for their energy needs. These effects would vary significantly depending on the local climate and also on local population density.

Residents of the northern plains, upper Midwest and New England are regularly subjected to harsh winters during which ambient temperatures can drop to as much as 125°F below body temperature. Residents of the southern tier of the US are regularly subjected to hot summers in which ambient temperatures can reach as much as 25°F above body temperature. This difference in ambient temperature relative to body temperature is the underlying reason why cold temperatures contribute to approximately 10 times more deaths more deaths than hot temperatures.

Residents of areas frequently exposed to very low ambient winter temperatures typically use natural gas, propane or fuel oil for space and water heating since these sources are more reliable than the electric grid in severe weather conditions; and, because electric space and water heating is more expensive than the alternatives. The use of electric heat pump space and water heaters is not common because of the poor low temperature performance of typical heat pumps. However, the fossil fuel space and water heating equipment would no longer be available after the “energy transition”.

Many residents in colder climates rely on gasoline or diesel emergency generators or natural gas, propane or diesel standby generators to supply power in the event of a grid outage. However, these generators would no longer be available after the “energy transition”.

Residents in these colder climates would instead be required to rely on electric heat pumps designed for cold weather operation. These heat pumps are beginning to enter the market but are not yet broadly available. They would also be required to rely on batteries to meet their emergency power needs in the event of a grid outage.

The most common gas furnace capacity is 100,000 Btu/hr. A furnace of this heating capacity would require less than 0.5 kW to power its controls and circulating fan, so the furnace could operate continuously in extremely cold weather for one day on a battery capacity of approximately 12 kWh. The Tesla Powerwall has a rated capacity of 13.5 kWh, so a fully charged Powerwall could support a typical gas furnace for approximately a full day, at an installed cost of approximately $9,000 – 13,000.

An electric heat pump operating at very low ambient temperature, or the strip heaters used to back up the heat pump, would require an input of approximately 30 kW to match the output of the gas furnace, or approximately 60 times the electric input required to operate the gas furnace. The installed cost of the Tesla Powerwalls required to operate the heat pump or strip heaters continuously in extremely cold weather for one day would range from $500,000 – 700,000, well beyond the financial reach of most homeowners.

Clearly, the elimination of fossil fuel space and water heating and the elimination of fossil fuel emergency and standby generators would increase the likelihood of deaths caused by grid outages in extremely cold weather. US EPA estimates the value of a “statistical life” at approximately $10 million, so grid outages in extremely cold weather could have both a major human and a major financial cost, with no discernable benefit.

From: Forbes

By: Tilak Doshi

Date: January 29, 2024

The Folly Of Climate Leadership

Lessons of UK Energy Policy Failure

Citing an International Energy Agency report, The Daily Telegraph reported on Wednesday that UK electricity prices have risen faster than almost any other developed country since 2019. The price of electricity in the UK rose by 19 percent in 2023 alone, compared to the US where electricity prices have risen by 5 percent annually since 2019. Referencing a separate report from the House of Commons library, the same article finds that the price increases have been driven by taxes and levies linked to the country’s commitment to the “net zero” emissions target which made up almost a fifth of household electricity prices.

Rupert Darwall’s 76-page penetrating analysis of Britain’s energy policy, “The folly of climate leadership: Net Zero and Britain’s disastrous energy policies” with a foreword written by Andy Puzder was published last month by the RealClear Foundation. It provides the context necessary to understand how UK’s political elites practically sleep-walked the country into its binding net zero legislation. The follies of quixotic climate leadership are not Britain’s alone, as the Biden Administration took office three years ago as America’s first “environmental administration”. Mr. Darwall’s analysis provides an excellent assessment of the lessons of Britain’s failing energy policies for those of the Biden administration. Under Democrat leadership, the US government unleashed a tsunami of green subsidies under its misnamed Inflation Reduction Act to achieve its net zero targets.

Lies, Damn Lies and Wind Energy

Not to be outdone in its claims to global “climate leadership”, the UK Labour government under Prime Minister Gordon Brown in 2008 committed the country to a legally binding target of reducing carbon emissions by 80 percent by 2050 below the 1990 level. It was all the more remarkable that this policy target was implemented during the global Great Recession that began with the financial crisis in the United States in late 2007 and which lasted until mid-2009. (continue reading)

The Folly Of Climate Leadership

Previous commentaries (Government Responsibility, Renewables Responsibility and Grid Responsibility) dealt with the government, renewables industry and grid operator perceptions of their responsibilities regarding the proposed energy transformation.

Government, at all levels, apparently believes that its responsibility in the proposed energy transition is to establish the goals, set the timeline, pick the winning technologies and incentivize their market adoption. This perception led to Net Zero by 2050, all-electric everything, wind and solar generation, electric vehicles and a variety of incentives, subsidies and mandates.

The renewable energy industry apparently believes that its responsibility in the proposed energy transition is take maximum advantage of federal and state subsidies, incentives, preferences and mandates by installing as much generating capacity as the industry participants can finance and get connected to the grid. The industry also believes that the grid should accept all of its output whenever it is available. The opportunity the industry perceives is the result of Net Zero by 2050, all-electric everything, and the selection of wind and solar as the winning technologies.

The overall responsibility of the utilities, which own and operate the grid and much of the generating capacity which feeds the grid, and the ISOs and RTOs through which they coordinate their generation and transmission operations, is to assure reliable and economical electricity service Their operational and financial performance are overseen by state utility commissions and consumers’ counsels.

Energy users do not escape responsibility during the proposed energy transition. They are already responsible for paying higher electricity rates as a result of the redundant electricity generation investments required by the transition, which would likely continue to grow as the fraction of renewable generation on the grid increases.

Energy users would also be required to replace fossil fueled end use equipment with electric end use equipment as the transition to all-electric everything proceeds. Customers would be responsible not only for the cost of the replacement equipment, but also for the costs of building modifications necessary to accommodate the electric end use equipment. Many customer buildings would likely also require electric service upgrades to support the increased electricity demand. Many sections of the electric distribution grid would also likely require capacity upgrades, which would be reflected in customer bills.

Energy users might also be required to increase the thermal and electrical efficiency of their buildings to reduce energy demand and consumption. Building Green analyzed “The Challenge of Existing Homes: Retrofitting for Dramatic Energy Savings” several years ago. The intent of the energy transition is to accomplish what Building Green refers to as a major energy retrofit, which they estimated would incur an average cost of approximately $50,000 per dwelling unit. No such estimates are available for commercial, institutional and industrial buildings, though the average cost would be substantially greater than for residential dwelling units.

Many industrial fossil fuel energy end uses do not currently have alternative electric replacements. Customers and their equipment suppliers would be responsible for developing and installing electric alternatives. Their transition would require large distribution upgrades and, in some cases, transmission upgrades to serve the increased demand.

Vehicle owners would be required to replace internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles with electric vehicles, which are currently significantly more expensive than ICE vehicles while offering diminished utility. Battery charging facilities for these electric vehicles would likely require additional customer electric service upgrades as well as distribution grid upgrades which would be reflected in customer electricity bills.

Government is also interested in “herding” individuals, families, businesses and service providers into “15-Minute Cities” to limit the need for personal travel. This would constitute a significant loss of personal freedom for many of those affected.

Much of the cost of the end user changes would likely be offset with government subsidies, which would appear to reduce end user direct costs, but would only transfer that portion of the costs to taxpayers, thus not reducing the societal costs of the changes, but likely increasing them, since the subsidies would be funded with new government interest-bearing debt.  

TANSTAAFL: There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch.

From: The Epoch Times

By: Katie Spence

Date: February 1, 2024

Trillions Spent on ‘Climate Change’ Based on Faulty Temperature Data, Climate Experts Say
Meteorologist finds 96 percent of NOAA temperature stations located in ‘urban heat islands,’ including next to exhaust fans and on ‘blistering-hot rooftops.’

To preserve a “livable planet,” the Earth can’t warm more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the United Nations warns.

Failure to maintain that level could lead to several catastrophes, including increased droughts and weather-related disasters, more heat-related illnesses and deaths, and less food and more poverty, according to NASA.

To avert the looming tribulations and limit global temperature increases, 194 member states and the European Union in 2016 signed the U.N. Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty with a goal to “substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.”

After the agreement, global spending on climate-related projects increased exponentially.

In 2021 and 2022, the world’s taxpayers spent, on average, $1.3 trillion on such projects each year, according to the nonprofit advisory group Climate Policy Initiative.

That’s more than double the spending rate in 2019 and 2020, which came in at $653 billion per year, and it’s significantly up from the $364 billion per year in 2011 and 2012, the report found.

Despite the money pouring in, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that 2023 was the hottest year on record.

NOAA’s climate monitoring stations found that the Earth’s average land and ocean surface temperature in 2023 was 1.35 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

“Not only was 2023 the warmest year in NOAA’s 174-year climate record—it was the warmest by far,” said Sarah Kapnick, NOAA’s chief scientist. (continue reading)

Trillions Spent on ‘Climate Change’ Based on Faulty Temperature Data, Climate Experts Say

Previous commentaries (Renewables Responsibility and Government Responsibility) dealt with the government and renewables industry perceptions of their responsibilities regarding the proposed energy transformation.

Government, at all levels, apparently believes that its responsibility in the proposed energy transition is to establish the goals, set the timeline, pick the winning technologies and incentivize their market adoption. This perception led to Net Zero by 2050, all-electric everything, wind and solar generation, electric vehicles and a variety of incentives, subsidies and mandates.

The renewable energy industry apparently believes that its responsibility in the proposed energy transition is take maximum advantage of federal and state subsidies, incentives, preferences and mandates by installing as much generating capacity as the industry participants can finance and get connected to the grid. The industry also believes that the grid should accept all of its output whenever it is available. The opportunity the industry perceives is the result of Net Zero by 2050, all-electric everything, and the selection of wind and solar as the winning technologies.

The overall responsibility of the utilities, which own and operate the grid and much of the generating capacity which feeds the grid, and the ISOs and RTOs through which they coordinate their generation and transmission operations, is to assure reliable and economical electricity service. Their operational and financial performance are overseen by state utility commissions and consumers’ counsels.

The utilities are required to connect non-utility generators to the grid. Conventional non-utility generators have historically been subject to economic dispatch. However, the proposed energy transition has changed this process by requiring that the output of connected renewable generators, which cannot be dispatched at will, be taken whenever it is available and supplemented by electricity dispatched from both utility and non-utility generators to meet the contemporaneous demand on the grid. In situations in which the renewable generator output exceeds demand, the grid operators would be expected to store the excess electricity for later use.

As the fraction of subsidized renewable generation connected to the grid increases, the output of the conventional generation to the grid decreases, reducing the revenues to those generators and increasing the rates they must charge to remain profitable. However, the intermittency of the renewable generation requires that the conventional capacity remain operating, even at zero net output, to supply the grid demand when the renewable generation declines significantly or is unavailable. However, conventional generation is being retired far more rapidly than renewable generation is being added to the grid, reducing the capacity reserve margin available to meet peak demand and threatening grid stability and reliability.

The grid operators, which typically connected a relatively small number of relatively high-capacity dispatchable generators, are now required to connect a relatively large number of relatively low-capacity non-dispatchable generators, spread over a far larger geographic area. As the energy transition proceeds, the number of relatively low-capacity non-dispatchable generators would increase dramatically, rendering the continued operation of conventional generation uneconomical. Fossil fueled conventional generation would also be driven from the grid by government edict.

When the rating plate capacity of the connected renewable generation exceeds the capacity of the conventional generation, the grid operators would be required to add dispatchable electricity storage to the grid to satisfy grid demand when renewable generation is unavailable or inadequate. This storage capacity would be recharged using surplus renewable electricity when available, supplemented by conventional generation while available. However, as the conventional generation is retired, additional grid storage capacity would be required, and additional renewable generation capacity would be required to assure that grid storage capacity is charged and available as required.

The grid scale storage required by the energy transition is currently either extremely expensive (short duration) or unavailable (medium to long duration). This would make the grid operators’ responsibility to ensure reliable and economical electricity service very difficult to fulfill.

Finally, there has not been a successful demonstration of a stable and reliable renewable plus storage grid, so there remain questions about whether the grid operators’ responsibilities could be fulfilled.

From: Climate Change Dispatch

By: Paul Driessen

Date: January 26, 2024

Models, Myths, And Misinformation Undergird Climate Models And Energy Policy

It’s mystifying and terrifying that our lives, livelihoods, and living standards are increasingly dictated by activist, political, bureaucratic, academic, and media elites who disseminate theoretical nonsense, calculated myths, and outright disinformation.

Not only on pronouns, gender, and immigration – but on climate change and energy, the foundation of modern civilization and life spans. [emphasis, links added]

We’re constantly told the world will plunge into an existential climate cataclysm if average planetary temperatures rise another few tenths of a degree from using fossil fuels for reliable, affordable energy, raw materials for over 6,000 vital products, and lifting billions out of poverty, disease, and early death.

Climate alarmism implicitly assumes Earth’s climate was stable until coal, oil, and gas emissions knocked it off-kilter, and would be stable again if people stopped using fossil fuels.

In the real world, climate has changed numerous times, often dramatically, sometimes catastrophically, and always naturally.

Multiple ice ages and interglacial periods, Roman and Medieval warm periods, a Little Ice Age, major floods, droughts, and dust bowls all happened – long before fossil fuels. (continue reading)

Models, Myths, And Misinformation Undergird Climate Models And Energy Policy

The renewable energy industry apparently believes that its responsibility in the proposed energy transition is take maximum advantage of federal and state subsidies, incentives, preferences and mandates by installing as much generating capacity as the industry participants can finance and get connected to the grid. The industry also believes that the grid should accept all of its output whenever it is available. The opportunity the industry perceives is the result of Net Zero by 2050, all-electric everything, and the selection of wind and solar as the winning technologies. Would that life were so simple.

The renewable energy industry believes that it should be free to install its generation facilities at whatever locations and that the operators of the existing electric utility grid should be responsible for extending the grid to their facilities.

The renewable industry is aware that the output of its facilities varies minute-to-minute, hour-to-hour, day-to-day, week-to-week, month-to-month, season-to-season, and year-to-year. The industry believes that it is the responsibility of the grid operator to smooth renewable generation output, to fill in the gaps when the generators are not operating, and to manage the generation of the difference between the available renewable energy and the contemporaneous demand on the grid.

The renewable energy industry is aware that the electricity it generates displaces energy which would otherwise have been generated by the conventional generators which serve the grid. The industry also recognizes that this displacement reduces the cumulative output and the revenues of the conventional generators, including utility owned generation. The renewable energy industry believes that this is not their problem; and, realizes that it actually benefits their industry by increasing the prices the conventional generators must charge to remain profitable, and thus the prices paid for their renewable energy as well.

The renewable energy industry is aware that, as conventional generators leave the grid as renewable generation increases, conventional generators age out or are required to cease operation by government edict or because their operation has become uneconomic, the gaps in renewable generation would have to be filled by withdrawals from electricity storage systems. The industry also realizes that the transition from conventional generation backup to storage backup would create demand for additional renewable generating capacity. The industry accepts no responsibility for the need for electricity storage to provide a stable and reliable grid.

The renewable energy industry understands that the expansion of intermittent generation of the electric utility grid adversely affects grid stability and reliability and complicates the effective management of the grid. However, the industry accepts no responsibility for these issues and places that responsibility solely on the grid operators.

The renewable energy industry also holds the grid operators responsible for the fact the  industry cannot get new renewable generating capacity connected to the grid as rapidly as it would like. Difficulties with receiving regulatory approvals for transmission grid expansion is viewed as not being the renewable energy industry’s responsibility.

FERC, NERC and several ISOs and RTOs have recognized the potential reliability issues facing the grid and have become more vocal regarding the need for caution as the energy transition proceeds.

With apologies to Ronald Reagan:
The renewable energy industry is like a baby. An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other.

From: Net Zero Watch

By: Andrew Montford

Date: January 26, 2024

Costing the Green Grid: Current and Future Technology

Executive summary

A recent Royal Society report claimed the electricity grid could be decarbonised without materially raising the cost per unit of electricity delivered (the ‘system cost’). The annual cost would be of the order of £30 billion. However, this conclusion relied on extraordinary input parameters:

• demand values that are very low, and hardly vary with temperature, apparently through use of an incorrect seasonal demand curve;
• highly optimistic cost and efficiency assumptions.

These assumptions included:

• 60% reduction in offshore wind capital cost
• 70% reduction in offshore wind operating costs
• 50% increase in offshore wind output • 30% reduction in solar capex
• 70% reduction in solar opex
• 90% reduction in electrolyser capex
• 45% increase in electrolyser efficiency
• 60% reduction in reciprocating engine capex
• 55% increase in reciprocating engine efficiency

compared to levels seen today. In order to deliver a decarbonised grid by 2050 at the overall cost stated in the report, these improvements would have to be delivered in the next 2–3 years.

The electricity system model presented in this paper reproduces the Royal Society’s results and then examines the effect of correcting the flaws.

• Using the correct seasonal demand curve increases costs by around  10%, to £33 billion per year. The latter figure represents around £1000 per household.
• Introducing interannual variability – that is, allowing for extra demand in cold years – increases annual spend to over £50 billion, or £1700 per household.
• Using assumptions representing current technology and costs,  but without allowing for interannual variability, increases annual spend to around £160 billion, or £5000 per household.
• If demand is allowed to vary year by year, then 2023 technology would give an annual spend of around £260 billion (perhaps £8000 per household).

This rate of spend would have to be sustained indefinitely.

Obviously, some reductions in costs should be expected by 2050, so the last scenario only determines the envelope of possible outcomes. However, it is clear that the Royal Society contains a significant error, having apparently used incorrect figures for their seasonal demand curve. The sheer scale of the optimism in its assumptions also means that it is misleading for the policy community.

Together, these flaws mean that the report should be withdrawn. (continue reading)

Costing the Green Grid: Current and Future Technology